POST HOLDINGS, INC. |
Real-time Estimate
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 105 USD | -0.53% |
|
-0.42% | +19.09% |
| May. 07 | Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Post Holdings to $120 From $115, Maintains Overweight Rating | MT |
| May. 03 | Post Holdings Seeks M&A | CI |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: September | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 7,733 | 5,823 | 7,018 | 4,895 | 5,249 | 6,398 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 13,762 | 11,659 | 13,241 | 10,266 | 11,196 | 12,361 | 12,088 | 11,770 |
| P/E ratio | 63.8 x | 8,600 x | 46.3 x | 6.78 x | 17.8 x | 19.9 x | 16.8 x | 14.7 x |
| Yield | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.36 x | 1.02 x | 1.13 x | 0.84 x | 0.75 x | 0.8 x | 0.78 x | 0.77 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.42 x | 2.05 x | 2.13 x | 1.75 x | 1.6 x | 1.55 x | 1.47 x | 1.42 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 11.4 x | 10.2 x | 11.8 x | 10.7 x | 9.08 x | 9.09 x | 8.52 x | 8.07 x |
| EV / FCF | 14.5 x | 29.8 x | 33.5 x | - | 25 x | 22.1 x | 17.4 x | 13.7 x |
| FCF Yield | 6.89% | 3.35% | 2.99% | - | 4% | 4.51% | 5.74% | 7.28% |
| Price to Book | 2.72 x | 2.08 x | 2.58 x | 1.58 x | - | - | - | - |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 73,067 | 67,704 | 63,707 | 59,758 | 61,219 | 60,586 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 105.8 | 86.00 | 110.2 | 81.91 | 85.74 | 105.6 | 105.6 | 105.6 |
| Announcement Date | 11/21/19 | 11/19/20 | 11/18/21 | 11/17/22 | 11/16/23 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: September | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 5,681 | 5,699 | 6,227 | 5,851 | 6,991 | 8,000 | 8,211 | 8,294 |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,210 | 1,140 | 1,123 | 963.5 | 1,233 | 1,360 | 1,418 | 1,459 |
| EBIT 1 | 791.9 | 720.4 | 647.1 | 517.5 | 826.3 | 815.9 | 852.1 | 875.1 |
| Operating Margin | 13.94% | 12.64% | 10.39% | 8.84% | 11.82% | 10.2% | 10.38% | 10.55% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | 159.1 | 63.4 | 337.2 | 895.3 | - | - | 531.4 | 580 |
| Net income 1 | 121.7 | 0.8 | 166.7 | 756.6 | - | 366.6 | 409.7 | 449.8 |
| Net margin | 2.14% | 0.01% | 2.68% | 12.93% | - | 4.58% | 4.99% | 5.42% |
| EPS 2 | 1.660 | 0.0100 | 2.380 | 12.09 | 4.820 | 5.295 | 6.305 | 7.170 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 948.4 | 391 | 395.7 | - | 447.3 | 558.1 | 693.9 | 857 |
| FCF margin | 16.69% | 6.86% | 6.35% | - | 6.4% | 6.98% | 8.45% | 10.33% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 78.35% | 34.28% | 35.23% | - | 36.27% | 41.05% | 48.94% | 58.75% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 779.29% | 48,875% | 237.37% | - | - | 152.24% | 169.38% | 190.53% |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 11/21/19 | 11/19/20 | 11/18/21 | 11/17/22 | 11/16/23 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: September | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 1,644 | 1,410 | 1,525 | 1,579 | 1,566 | 1,620 | 1,859 | 1,945 | 1,966 | 1,999 | 2,021 | 2,015 | 2,041 | 2,037 | 2,071 |
| EBITDA 1 | 263.1 | 229.7 | 250.8 | 279.7 | 269.9 | 276.3 | 338.2 | 349 | 359.5 | 345.2 | 326.8 | 329.6 | 367.1 | 355.4 | 344.6 |
| EBIT 1 | 145.2 | 117 | 157 | 167.5 | 160.3 | 161.9 | 231.7 | 235.2 | 247.1 | 225.6 | 187.5 | 192.6 | 227.3 | 212.9 | 206.3 |
| Operating Margin | 8.83% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 10.61% | 10.23% | 9.99% | 12.46% | 12.09% | 12.57% | 11.29% | 9.28% | 9.56% | 11.14% | 10.45% | 9.96% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 3.6 | 567.7 | 219.6 | 146.6 | 118.4 | 74.5 | 125.1 | 94.9 | 116.7 | 125.9 | 107 | 107.1 | 136.6 | 123.8 | 126.8 |
| Net income 1 | -20.8 | 523.3 | 170.2 | 83.9 | 91.9 | 54.1 | 89.6 | 65.7 | 88.1 | 97.2 | 83.5 | 83.9 | 103.2 | 98.65 | 99.5 |
| Net margin | -1.27% | 37.12% | 11.16% | 5.31% | 5.87% | 3.34% | 4.82% | 3.38% | 4.48% | 4.86% | 4.13% | 4.16% | 5.06% | 4.84% | 4.8% |
| EPS 2 | -0.2500 | 8.400 | 2.720 | 1.320 | 1.520 | 0.9200 | 1.380 | 1.010 | 1.350 | 1.480 | 1.248 | 1.262 | 1.570 | 1.520 | 1.545 |
| Dividend per Share | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 2/3/22 | 5/5/22 | 8/4/22 | 11/17/22 | 2/2/23 | 5/4/23 | 8/3/23 | 11/16/23 | 2/1/24 | 5/2/24 | - | - | - | - | - |
1USD in Million2USD
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: September | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 6,029 | 5,836 | 6,223 | 5,371 | 5,947 | 5,963 | 5,690 | 5,371 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 4.981 x | 5.117 x | 5.54 x | 5.575 x | 4.821 x | 4.386 x | 4.013 x | 3.683 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 948 | 391 | 396 | - | 447 | 558 | 694 | 857 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 12.3% | 6.57% | 5.96% | 25.2% | 8.49% | 9.73% | 9.65% | 9.64% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 2.95% | - | 1.36% | 6.38% | 2.63% | 3.23% | 3.26% | 3.34% |
| Assets 1 | 4,125 | - | 12,284 | 11,861 | - | 11,353 | 12,578 | 13,451 |
| Book Value Per Share | 39.00 | 41.40 | 42.70 | 51.90 | - | - | - | - |
| Cash Flow per Share | 9.160 | 8.920 | 9.010 | 6.100 | - | - | - | - |
| Capex 1 | 274 | 235 | 193 | 255 | 303 | 433 | 373 | 340 |
| Capex / Sales | 4.82% | 4.12% | 3.09% | 4.36% | 4.33% | 5.41% | 4.55% | 4.1% |
| Announcement Date | 11/21/19 | 11/19/20 | 11/18/21 | 11/17/22 | 11/16/23 | - | - | - |
1USD in Million
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
10
Last Close Price
105.6
USD
Average target price
119.4
USD
Spread / Average Target
+13.06%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +19.09% | 6.4B | |
| +2.30% | 455M | |
| +12.54% | 214M | |
| +31.87% | 171M | |
| +16.63% | 126M |
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