MUST Insights: From recovery to growth in the U.S. office market
March 2022
U.S. office market trends
Green shoots in
demand
- Four consecutive quarters of increased office leasing velocity, driven principally by the tech sector
- Sublease space plateauing
- Positive net absorption for the first time since the onset of the pandemic in Q4 2021
Migration of talent
- Employers are struggling with retention and wage inflation given acute labor shortages
- Housing affordability and quality of life driving workforce migration to the Sun Belt and Mountain West
- HQ relocations and hub-and- spoke expansions becoming increasingly popular
Hybrid work
- Office re-entry is gradually rising - currently 36% of pre- pandemic levels
- Employers are finalizing hybrid work policies - with many allowing 2 days per week of locational flexibility
- Efficacy of hybrid work remains uncertain, with a discovery process now underway
Flight to quality
- Tenants are gravitating to best- in-class space
- Newly delivered assets registered 52 million s.f. of occupancy gains since onset of the pandemic vs. 148 million s.f. of losses among commodity assets
- Rents for top-quality space up 15% vs. 10% decline for the commodity segment
Office re-entry patterns and forecast
U.S. office occupancy vs. pre-pandemic normal (%)
100% | 8% | ||||||||
December 14, 2020: first | |||||||||
90% | |||||||||
COVID-19 vaccine | |||||||||
administered in the U.S. | 35% | ||||||||
80% | |||||||||
55% | 50% | ||||||||
70% | 60% | 60% | |||||||
65% | |||||||||
60% | 79% | 74% | 77% | 74% | 75% | ||||
92%
50%
92%
40%
30% | 65% | |||||||
45% | 50% | |||||||
20% | 40% | 40% | ||||||
35% | ||||||||
10% | 21% | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | |||
8%
0%
Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23
Office occupancy comparison
Market | Feb 2022 est. |
Austin | 52% |
Dallas | 47% |
Houston | 50% |
New York | 31% |
Chicago | 32% |
San Francisco | 25% |
Los Angeles | 33% |
Washington, DC | 32% |
Silicon Valley | 27% |
Source: Kastle Systems
In-office Remote
Projected
Office attendance is currently 36% of pre-pandemic levels, with Sun Belt markets leading dense urban gateways.
3
Overall office leasing activity continues to rebound
80,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
70,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
(s.f.) | 59.9 million s.f. | + 60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
60,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
activity | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
50,000,000 | From trough | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
leasing | 40,000,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
office | 30,000,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
U.S. quarterly | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
20,000,000 | 51,601,230 | 61,497,397 | 60,686,234 | 56,144,428 | 55,796,348 | 57,832,467 | 62,494,619 | 61,447,311 | 56,815,039 | 58,964,533 | 62,834,071 | 62,457,684 | 68,813,611 | 63,986,471 | 59,687,423 | 57,982,530 | 50,630,252 | 27,893,891 | 30,366,705 | 28,068,376 | 32,719,643 | 38,706,022 | 40,873,582 | 44,634,337 | |
10,000,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
Leasing activity rose 9% last quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase - while overall volume is up 60% from the trough, levels remain almost 30% below pre-pandemic norms
4
Tech sector fueling U.S. office demand
Seattle/Bellevue
- Amazon (1.8 m.s.f.)
- Meta (558,000 s.f.)
- Microsoft (246,638 s.f.)
- Blue Origin (92,834 s.f.)
Los Angeles
- Netflix (538,145 s.f.)
- Amazon (373,156 s.f.)
- Hulu (351,000 s.f.)
- Riot Games (199,882 s.f.)
San Diego
- Apple (591,511 s.f.)
- BD (318,000 s.f.)
- Google (115,285 s.f.)
- Resilience (49,130 s.f.)
Notable leasing activity since Q1 2020
Austin
- Meta (589,000 s.f.)
- Samsung (189,967 s.f.)
- Atlassian (157,540 s.f.)
- TikTok (126,429 s.f.)
Boston
- Amazon (630,000 s.f.)
- Whoop (121,682 s.f.)
- Insulet (119,060 s.f.)
- Hubspot (116,007 s.f.)
New York
- Meta (730,000 s.f.)
- Roku (237,333 s.f.)
- TikTok (232,188 s.f.)
- Apple (220,000 s.f.)
Raleigh
- Biogen (102,972 s.f.)
- Merz (79,162 s.f.)
- Bioventus (52,101 s.f.)
- Carsgen (36,590 s.f.)
Atlanta
- Microsoft (523,511 s.f.)
- MailChimp (300,000 s.f.)
- CGHI (116,993 s.f.)
- Cisco (93,389 s.f.)
Miami
- Wix (48,148 s.f.)
- Microsoft (43,885 s.f.)
Tech companies are expanding beyond the Bay Area to satellite markets
5
This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.
Attachments
- Original Link
- Original Document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Manulife US Real Estate Investment Trust published this content on 09 March 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 March 2022 06:42:03 UTC.