MUST Insights: From recovery to growth in the U.S. office market

March 2022

U.S. office market trends

Green shoots in

demand

  • Four consecutive quarters of increased office leasing velocity, driven principally by the tech sector
  • Sublease space plateauing
  • Positive net absorption for the first time since the onset of the pandemic in Q4 2021

Migration of talent

  • Employers are struggling with retention and wage inflation given acute labor shortages
  • Housing affordability and quality of life driving workforce migration to the Sun Belt and Mountain West
  • HQ relocations and hub-and- spoke expansions becoming increasingly popular

Hybrid work

  • Office re-entry is gradually rising - currently 36% of pre- pandemic levels
  • Employers are finalizing hybrid work policies - with many allowing 2 days per week of locational flexibility
  • Efficacy of hybrid work remains uncertain, with a discovery process now underway

Flight to quality

  • Tenants are gravitating to best- in-class space
  • Newly delivered assets registered 52 million s.f. of occupancy gains since onset of the pandemic vs. 148 million s.f. of losses among commodity assets
  • Rents for top-quality space up 15% vs. 10% decline for the commodity segment

Office re-entry patterns and forecast

U.S. office occupancy vs. pre-pandemic normal (%)

100%

8%

December 14, 2020: first

90%

COVID-19 vaccine

administered in the U.S.

35%

80%

55%

50%

70%

60%

60%

65%

60%

79%

74%

77%

74%

75%

92%

50%

92%

40%

30%

65%

45%

50%

20%

40%

40%

35%

10%

21%

26%

23%

26%

25%

8%

0%

Jan-20Apr-20Jul-20Oct-20Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23

Office occupancy comparison

Market

Feb 2022 est.

Austin

52%

Dallas

47%

Houston

50%

New York

31%

Chicago

32%

San Francisco

25%

Los Angeles

33%

Washington, DC

32%

Silicon Valley

27%

Source: Kastle Systems

In-office Remote

Projected

Office attendance is currently 36% of pre-pandemic levels, with Sun Belt markets leading dense urban gateways.

3

Overall office leasing activity continues to rebound

80,000,000

70,000,000

(s.f.)

59.9 million s.f.

+ 60%

60,000,000

activity

50,000,000

From trough

leasing

40,000,000

office

30,000,000

U.S. quarterly

20,000,000

51,601,230

61,497,397

60,686,234

56,144,428

55,796,348

57,832,467

62,494,619

61,447,311

56,815,039

58,964,533

62,834,071

62,457,684

68,813,611

63,986,471

59,687,423

57,982,530

50,630,252

27,893,891

30,366,705

28,068,376

32,719,643

38,706,022

40,873,582

44,634,337

10,000,000

0

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Leasing activity rose 9% last quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase - while overall volume is up 60% from the trough, levels remain almost 30% below pre-pandemic norms

4

Tech sector fueling U.S. office demand

Seattle/Bellevue

  • Amazon (1.8 m.s.f.)
  • Meta (558,000 s.f.)
  • Microsoft (246,638 s.f.)
  • Blue Origin (92,834 s.f.)

Los Angeles

  • Netflix (538,145 s.f.)
  • Amazon (373,156 s.f.)
  • Hulu (351,000 s.f.)
  • Riot Games (199,882 s.f.)

San Diego

  • Apple (591,511 s.f.)
  • BD (318,000 s.f.)
  • Google (115,285 s.f.)
  • Resilience (49,130 s.f.)

Notable leasing activity since Q1 2020

Austin

  • Meta (589,000 s.f.)
  • Samsung (189,967 s.f.)
  • Atlassian (157,540 s.f.)
  • TikTok (126,429 s.f.)

Boston

  • Amazon (630,000 s.f.)
  • Whoop (121,682 s.f.)
  • Insulet (119,060 s.f.)
  • Hubspot (116,007 s.f.)

New York

  • Meta (730,000 s.f.)
  • Roku (237,333 s.f.)
  • TikTok (232,188 s.f.)
  • Apple (220,000 s.f.)

Raleigh

  • Biogen (102,972 s.f.)
  • Merz (79,162 s.f.)
  • Bioventus (52,101 s.f.)
  • Carsgen (36,590 s.f.)

Atlanta

  • Microsoft (523,511 s.f.)
  • MailChimp (300,000 s.f.)
  • CGHI (116,993 s.f.)
  • Cisco (93,389 s.f.)

Miami

  • Wix (48,148 s.f.)
  • Microsoft (43,885 s.f.)

Tech companies are expanding beyond the Bay Area to satellite markets

5

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Disclaimer

Manulife US Real Estate Investment Trust published this content on 09 March 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 March 2022 06:42:03 UTC.