Financials Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Equities

600519

CNE0000018R8

Distillers & Wineries

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,709 ^CNY	+0.97%		+3.81%	-0.96%

Apr. 26	Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI
Apr. 04	Kweichow Moutai's Profit Jumps 19% in 2023	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,486,082	2,509,883	2,575,205	2,169,454	2,168,197	2,147,382	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,472,830	2,473,792	2,523,500	2,111,289	2,099,184	1,936,945	1,894,441	1,866,934
P/E ratio	36.1 x	53.8 x	49.1 x	34.6 x	29 x	24.3 x	21.1 x	18.3 x
Yield	1.44%	0.97%	1.06%	1.5%	1.79%	2.18%	2.51%	2.89%
Capitalization / Revenue	16.7 x	26.4 x	24.3 x	17 x	14.7 x	12.2 x	10.7 x	9.39 x
EV / Revenue	16.6 x	26.1 x	23.8 x	16.6 x	14.2 x	11 x	9.44 x	8.17 x
EV / EBITDA	24.4 x	36.4 x	33.1 x	23.6 x	19.9 x	15.9 x	13.5 x	11.7 x
EV / FCF	35 x	49.9 x	41.6 x	67.3 x	32.8 x	22.3 x	19.3 x	16.4 x
FCF Yield	2.86%	2%	2.4%	1.49%	3.05%	4.49%	5.17%	6.1%
Price to Book	10.9 x	15.6 x	13.6 x	11 x	10.1 x	8.18 x	6.85 x	5.91 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	1,256,198	-	-
Reference price ²	1,183	1,998	2,050	1,727	1,726	1,709	1,709	1,709
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	88,854	94,915	106,190	127,554	147,694	175,316	200,761	228,635
EBITDA ¹	60,285	67,952	76,230	89,556	105,629	122,056	140,667	160,152
EBIT ¹	59,041	66,635	74,751	87,880	103,709	120,921	139,960	159,480
Operating Margin	66.45%	70.2%	70.39%	68.9%	70.22%	68.97%	69.71%	69.75%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	58,783	66,197	74,528	87,701	103,663	122,456	141,123	161,500
Net income ¹	41,206	46,697	52,460	62,716	74,734	88,392	101,924	116,544
Net margin	46.38%	49.2%	49.4%	49.17%	50.6%	50.42%	50.77%	50.97%
EPS ²	32.80	37.17	41.76	49.93	59.49	70.46	81.17	93.25
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,062	49,580	60,622	31,392	63,998	86,991	97,965	113,968
FCF margin	47.34%	52.24%	57.09%	24.61%	43.33%	49.62%	48.8%	49.85%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	69.77%	72.96%	79.53%	35.05%	60.59%	71.27%	69.64%	71.16%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	102.08%	106.17%	115.56%	50.05%	85.63%	98.41%	96.12%	97.79%
Dividend per Share ²	17.02	19.29	21.68	25.91	30.88	37.22	42.97	49.45
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	43,953	49,087	25,555	31,548	57,103	32,296	25,321	29,543	37,768	38,756	30,820	70,987	33,692	44,425	-	45,776	37,207	40,254	52,775	52,800
EBITDA	-	-	17,287	20,941	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	32,081	-	17,951	21,728	39,679	24,027	17,608	20,327	25,918	28,686	21,206	49,892	23,280	30,537	-	33,157	24,637	27,427	36,973	-
Operating Margin	72.99%	-	70.25%	68.87%	69.49%	74.4%	69.54%	68.8%	68.62%	74.02%	68.81%	70.28%	69.09%	68.74%	-	72.43%	66.22%	68.14%	70.06%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	31,978	-	17,805	21,672	-	-	-	-	-	28,700	21,224	-	23,303	30,436	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	22,602	24,654	12,612	15,194	27,806	17,245	12,549	14,606	18,317	20,795	15,186	-	16,896	21,858	38,754	24,065	17,717	21,119	24,077	-
Net margin	51.42%	50.22%	49.35%	48.16%	48.69%	53.4%	49.56%	49.44%	48.5%	53.66%	49.27%	-	50.15%	49.2%	-	52.57%	47.62%	52.46%	45.62%	-
EPS ²	-	-	10.04	12.09	-	13.73	9.990	11.62	14.59	16.55	12.09	28.64	13.45	17.40	-	19.16	14.23	16.22	20.33	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	21.68	-	-	-	-	25.91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	61.53	-
Announcement Date	7/28/20	7/30/21	10/22/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/26/22	8/2/22	10/16/22	3/30/23	4/25/23	8/2/23	8/2/23	10/20/23	4/2/24	4/2/24	4/27/24	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	13,252	36,091	51,706	58,165	69,013	210,437	252,941	280,448
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	42,062	49,580	60,622	31,392	63,998	86,991	97,965	113,968
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	33.1%	31.4%	29.9%	30.3%	34.2%	35%	34.1%	34%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	24%	23.6%	22.4%	24.6%	-	27.7%	26.5%	25.3%
Assets ¹	171,444	198,223	234,282	254,767	-	319,129	384,950	460,984
Book Value Per Share ²	108.0	128.0	151.0	157.0	172.0	209.0	250.0	289.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	36.00	41.10	51.00	29.20	53.00	76.20	81.70	97.20
Capex ¹	3,149	2,089	3,406	5,306	2,595	4,242	4,349	3,585
Capex / Sales	3.54%	2.2%	3.21%	4.16%	1.76%	2.42%	2.17%	1.57%
Announcement Date	4/21/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	4/2/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

1,709 CNY

Average target price

2,154 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+26.03%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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Distilleries