Financials Carlsberg A/S

Equities

CARL B

DK0010181759

Brewers

Market Closed - Nasdaq Copenhagen Other stock markets 10:59:38 2024-04-26 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
954.2 ^DKK	+0.63%		+2.87%	+12.68%

Apr. 25	Putin urges restraint in state seizure of assets	RE
Apr. 12	Constellation Brands, Inc: Cash machine

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	145,805	142,676	163,149	133,594	122,775	133,138	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	164,584	163,939	182,311	152,920	145,126	158,499	158,903	159,470
P/E ratio	22.7 x	23.7 x	23.8 x	-121 x	-2.83 x	17.6 x	15.9 x	14.4 x
Yield	2.11%	2.26%	2.12%	2.92%	3.19%	2.88%	3.16%	3.45%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.21 x	2.44 x	2.45 x	1.9 x	1.67 x	1.74 x	1.66 x	1.59 x
EV / Revenue	2.5 x	2.8 x	2.74 x	2.18 x	1.97 x	2.07 x	1.98 x	1.9 x
EV / EBITDA	11 x	11.6 x	11.8 x	9.77 x	9.56 x	9.99 x	9.39 x	8.81 x
EV / FCF	17.5 x	32.4 x	20.5 x	15.5 x	29.8 x	20.2 x	18.2 x	17.5 x
FCF Yield	5.72%	3.08%	4.87%	6.46%	3.36%	4.94%	5.51%	5.72%
Price to Book	3.39 x	3.6 x	3.65 x	3.97 x	4.89 x	5.29 x	5.17 x	5.13 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	147,996	145,102	141,892	137,341	134,114	132,790	-	-
Reference price ²	993.8	975.2	1,130	923.2	846.8	954.2	954.2	954.2
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/5/21	2/4/22	2/7/23	2/7/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	65,902	58,541	66,634	70,265	73,585	76,719	80,247	83,963
EBITDA ¹	15,007	14,085	15,474	15,657	15,179	15,867	16,916	18,092
EBIT ¹	10,465	9,699	10,862	11,470	11,105	11,549	12,476	13,462
Operating Margin	15.88%	16.57%	16.3%	16.32%	15.09%	15.05%	15.55%	16.03%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	10,228	9,041	10,228	9,961	9,830	10,613	11,543	12,478
Net income ¹	6,569	6,030	6,846	-1,063	-40,788	7,244	7,863	8,490
Net margin	9.97%	10.3%	10.27%	-1.51%	-55.43%	9.44%	9.8%	10.11%
EPS ²	43.70	41.10	47.40	-7.600	-299.7	54.15	59.88	66.20
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,415	5,057	8,876	9,884	4,878	7,833	8,753	9,118
FCF margin	14.29%	8.64%	13.32%	14.07%	6.63%	10.21%	10.91%	10.86%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	62.74%	35.9%	57.36%	63.13%	32.14%	49.37%	51.75%	50.39%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	143.32%	83.86%	129.65%	-	-	108.13%	111.32%	107.39%
Dividend per Share ²	21.00	22.00	24.00	27.00	27.00	27.49	30.18	32.89
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/5/21	2/4/22	2/7/23	2/7/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	32,912	28,830	29,711	31,687	19,739	15,208	34,947	-	20,511	35,447	-	-	34,818	16,405	21,383	37,788	35,797	17,114	22,313	39,344	21,486	16,243	37,846	-	41,267	38,896
EBITDA	-	6,797	7,288	7,245	-	-	8,229	-	-	7,705	-	-	7,087	-	-	8,060	7,119	-	-	8,517	-	-	7,494	-	-	-
EBIT	5,294	4,615	5,084	5,111	-	-	5,751	-	-	6,442	-	-	5,028	-	-	6,272	4,833	-	-	6,207	-	-	5,616	-	6,586	6,194
Operating Margin	16.09%	16.01%	17.11%	16.13%	-	-	16.46%	-	-	18.17%	-	-	14.44%	-	-	16.6%	13.5%	-	-	15.78%	-	-	14.84%	-	15.96%	15.92%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	5,375	4,404	4,637	4,674	-	-	5,554	-	-	5,069	-	-	-	-	-	5,771	-	-	-	5,713	-	-	5,262	-	6,307	5,676
Net income ¹	3,490	2,855	3,175	3,027	1,910	1,910	3,819	-2,638	-2,638	-5,276	2,106	-	-	-	-	3,495	-44,283	1,061	2,476	3,880	2,476	1,061	3,408	-	4,289	3,860
Net margin	10.6%	9.9%	10.69%	9.55%	9.67%	12.56%	10.93%	-	-12.86%	-14.88%	-	-	-	-	-	9.25%	-123.71%	6.2%	11.09%	9.86%	11.52%	6.53%	9.01%	-	10.39%	9.92%
EPS ²	23.40	19.30	21.80	20.90	13.26	13.26	26.50	-	-	-37.40	15.11	-	-	-	-	25.50	-	7.927	18.58	27.85	18.54	8.019	24.65	-	31.50	28.30
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	24.00	24.00	-	-	-	-	27.00	-	-	-	-	-	6.785	6.785	28.13	6.785	6.785	-	7.384	31.47	-
Announcement Date	2/4/20	8/13/20	2/5/21	8/18/21	10/28/21	2/4/22	2/4/22	8/17/22	8/17/22	8/17/22	2/7/23	2/7/23	2/7/23	5/16/23	8/16/23	8/16/23	2/7/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	18,779	21,263	19,162	19,326	22,351	25,361	25,765	26,332
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.251 x	1.51 x	1.238 x	1.234 x	1.472 x	1.598 x	1.523 x	1.455 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,415	5,057	8,876	9,884	4,878	7,833	8,753	9,118
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	13.9%	15.4%	16.7%	25%	26.9%	29.9%	32.3%	34.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.46%	4.99%	5.66%	-0.88%	6.54%	6.53%	6.86%	7.22%
Assets ¹	120,411	120,939	120,886	120,864	-623,965	110,880	114,596	117,512
Book Value Per Share ²	294.0	271.0	310.0	232.0	173.0	180.0	185.0	186.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	81.40	74.80	91.90	92.40	85.10	89.10	94.80	104.0
Capex ¹	4,588	4,396	4,221	4,018	4,243	5,089	5,305	5,464
Capex / Sales	6.96%	7.51%	6.33%	5.72%	5.77%	6.63%	6.61%	6.51%
Announcement Date	2/4/20	2/5/21	2/4/22	2/7/23	2/7/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Carlsberg A/S

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

954.2 DKK

Average target price

1,064 DKK

Spread / Average Target

+11.54%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Brewers

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HEINEKEN HOLDING N.V.	0.00%	23.13B
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ASAHI GROUP HOLDINGS, LTD.	+3.94%	17.59B
CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) COMPANY LIMITED	+6.29%	15.06B
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY	+2.17%	13.27B

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