Financials ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.

Equities

ALPEK A

MX01AL0C0004

Specialty Chemicals

End-of-day quote Mexican S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
12.41 ^MXN	-1.90%		+4.20%	-1.82%

Apr. 24	Transcript : ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., Q1 2024 Earnings Call, Apr 24, 2024
Apr. 23	ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V. Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	44,196	36,796	47,006	58,139	26,629	26,145	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	70,254	57,304	68,458	90,901	28,358	50,322	49,947	46,200
P/E ratio	6.7 x	12.5 x	6.07 x	4.23 x	-2.47 x	13.8 x	8.08 x	4.68 x
Yield	-	-	10.1%	-	-	3.2%	8.65%	6.02%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.37 x	0.32 x	0.3 x	0.27 x	0.19 x	0.2 x	0.2 x	0.18 x
EV / Revenue	0.59 x	0.5 x	0.44 x	0.43 x	0.21 x	0.38 x	0.39 x	0.32 x
EV / EBITDA	4.29 x	4.78 x	2.95 x	3.09 x	2.17 x	4.66 x	4.02 x	2.98 x
EV / FCF	11.2 x	6.79 x	7.76 x	7.49 x	2.26 x	19.1 x	10 x	7.31 x
FCF Yield	8.94%	14.7%	12.9%	13.4%	44.2%	5.24%	9.98%	13.7%
Price to Book	1.09 x	0.91 x	0.95 x	1.24 x	0.93 x	0.7 x	0.72 x	0.76 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,115,667	2,112,297	2,109,782	2,107,247	2,106,708	2,106,740	-	-
Reference price ²	20.89	17.42	22.28	27.59	12.64	12.41	12.41	12.41
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹MXN in Million²MXN

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	119,685	113,989	156,224	212,435	138,159	134,005	128,319	143,862
EBITDA ¹	16,395	11,993	23,234	29,424	13,092	10,799	12,410	15,492
EBIT ¹	12,361	7,493	17,494	24,539	-2,606	6,190	8,076	11,622
Operating Margin	10.33%	6.57%	11.2%	11.55%	-1.89%	4.62%	6.29%	8.08%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	9,413	5,323	14,311	21,475	-9,306	3,744	5,690	2,959
Net income ¹	6,605	3,123	7,756	13,744	-10,914	1,885	3,018	4,599
Net margin	5.52%	2.74%	4.96%	6.47%	-7.9%	1.41%	2.35%	3.2%
EPS ²	3.120	1.397	3.668	6.520	-5.117	0.9000	1.537	2.653
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,278	8,443	8,817	12,142	12,523	2,637	4,983	6,319
FCF margin	5.25%	7.41%	5.64%	5.72%	9.06%	1.97%	3.88%	4.39%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	38.29%	70.4%	37.95%	41.27%	95.65%	24.42%	40.16%	40.79%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	95.05%	270.35%	113.68%	88.35%	-	139.92%	165.11%	137.42%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	2.260	-	-	0.3970	1.074	0.7477
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹MXN in Million²MXN

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	41,652	44,664	47,877	56,398	59,750	48,411	38,574	36,330	35,461	29,887	32,349	31,127	31,860	30,483	-
EBITDA ¹	5,581	5,578	9,368	10,166	6,217	3,673	3,505	3,562	2,901	2,931	2,856	2,894	2,984	3,121	3,134
EBIT ¹	4,522	2,990	8,316	9,088	4,943	2,192	1,438	2,405	1,215	-7,963	1,608	1,748	1,908	1,531	-
Operating Margin	10.86%	6.69%	17.37%	16.11%	8.27%	4.53%	3.73%	6.62%	3.43%	-26.64%	4.97%	5.62%	5.99%	5.02%	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,766	2,475	7,582	8,572	3,696	1,625	1,047	1,197	-580.1	-10,994	807	846.9	1,006	629.4	-
Net income ¹	2,219	601	4,698	6,058	2,245	742.5	-91.37	555	-471.4	-10,939	137.1	423.1	520.8	271.7	-
Net margin	5.33%	1.35%	9.81%	10.74%	3.76%	1.53%	-0.24%	1.53%	-1.33%	-36.6%	0.42%	1.36%	1.63%	0.89%	-
EPS ²	1.009	0.2038	2.230	2.870	1.070	0.3500	-0.0400	0.2600	-0.1813	-5.117	0.0700	0.2010	0.2470	0.1290	-
Dividend per Share ²	0.5348	1.190	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	10/20/21	2/15/22	4/25/22	7/20/22	10/20/22	2/15/23	4/25/23	7/26/23	10/23/23	2/20/24	4/23/24	-	-	-	-

¹MXN in Million²MXN

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	26,058	20,508	21,452	32,762	1,729	24,178	23,803	20,055
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.589 x	1.71 x	0.9233 x	1.113 x	0.1321 x	2.239 x	1.918 x	1.295 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	6,278	8,443	8,817	12,142	12,523	2,637	4,983	6,319
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	16.8%	7.72%	16.3%	28.2%	-28.9%	5.84%	9.14%	13.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.93%	2.99%	6.74%	9.8%	-9.11%	1.41%	2.4%	5.44%
Assets ¹	111,345	104,366	115,149	140,306	119,751	133,302	125,737	84,516
Book Value Per Share ²	19.10	19.10	23.50	22.30	13.60	17.80	17.20	16.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	4.720	5.650	6.270	7.220	7.130	2.970	2.890	-
Capex ¹	3,723	3,491	4,413	3,068	2,501	3,482	4,500	5,401
Capex / Sales	3.11%	3.06%	2.82%	1.44%	1.81%	2.6%	3.51%	3.75%
Announcement Date	2/12/20	2/11/21	2/15/22	2/15/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹MXN in Million²MXN

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

12.41 MXN

Average target price

19.3 MXN

Spread / Average Target

+55.52%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Cellular Fiber

	1st Jan change	Capi.
ALPEK, S.A.B. DE C.V.	-1.82%	1.52B
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TONGKUN GROUP CO., LTD.	-11.57%	4.38B
SINOMA SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO.,LTD.	-1.44%	3.63B
JINAN ACETATE CHEMICAL CO., LTD.	-2.38%	2.05B
LUYANG ENERGY-SAVING MATERIALS CO., LTD.	-6.46%	931M
HUAFON MICROFIBRE (SHANGHAI) CO., LTD.	-18.10%	880M
NORTH CHEMICAL INDUSTRIES CO., LTD.	-3.17%	601M
CHONGQING ZAISHENG TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.	-27.91%	437M
JIANGSU JIANGNAN HIGH POLYMER FIBER CO.,LTD	-17.44%	385M

Cellular Fiber