PURE EXPOSURE TO THE URANIUM COMMODITY
INVESTOR PRESENTATION
April
2024
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1
Yellow Cake
Buy and hold strategy
Pure exposure to the uranium commodity price
Ability to purchase in volume, at the spot price
Inventory stored In safe jurisdictions
Low-cost structure
We purchase natural uranium (U3O8) and hold for the long-term
No exploration, development or operating risk
Ability to purchase up to US$100m of U3O8 from Kazatomprom per year (through 2027)
Uranium stored in Canada (Cameco) and France (Orano)
Outsourced operating model
Targeting annual operating costs of <1% of NAV
2
Uranium market update
March 2024
Spot Market Overview(1)
- Spot market pricing demonstrated continuing volatility during the month of March. After ending February at US$95.00 /lb., the spot price fell to
US$84.00 /lb. on 13 March, before ending March at US$88.50 /lb. Aggregate transactional volume rose month-on-month (3.8 Mlbs.) as compared to February (2.4 Mlbs.). Total 2024 spot market volume aggregated 9.5 Mlbs. for the first calendar quarter of 2024, a first quarter level not seen since 2016 when 8.9 Mlbs. were transacted
Long-Term Pricing(1)
- Two of the three longer term uranium price indicators showed continuing weakening during March, while the Long-Term Price remained stable. The 3- yr Forward price declined to US$97.00 /lb. (February - US$105.00 /lb.), while the 5-yr Forward Price decreased to US$108.00 /lb. (February - US$111.00 /lb.) The Long-Term Price remained stable at US$75.00 /lb. at the end of March
IAEA(2)
- High-levelrepresentatives of 32 countries gathered in Brussels for the inaugural Nuclear Energy Summit sponsored by the International Atomic energy Agency (21 March). The conference was the first ever to focus exclusively on nuclear energy and its future potential to contribute to addressing climate change. Principal themes were the importance of nuclear energy in achieving energy security, climate goals and driving sustainable development. Areas identified as being crucial to achieving long-term success included: increased financing, workforce development, and more proactive support to nuclear newcomer countries
China(3)
- Citing comments by the Chairman of China National Nuclear Corporation, Bloomberg News reports that China can accelerate its already aggressive commercial nuclear power program by approving as many as 10 reactors per year. The country expects to add 3-4 reactors in 2024, bringing total installed nuclear generating capacity to 60.8 GWe and reportedly has 36 reactors now under development. China expects to surpass the United States and become the world's largest generator of nuclear electricity by 2030
Serbia(4)
- Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic, announced that Serbia will pursue the development of 1.2 GWe of nuclear capacity from small modular reactors
Sources:
1) | UxC Weekly; "UxC Price Indicators"; 1 April 2024 | |
2) | IAEA Press Announcement; "A Turning Point: First Ever Nuclear Energy Summit Concludes in Brussels"; 25 March 2024 | |
3) | Bloomberg News; "China Able to Accelerate World's Fastest Nuclear Power Expansion"; 4 March 2024 | 3 |
4) | Power Technology; "Serbia Signals Desire for Nuclear Power Production"; 27 March 2024 | |
Uranium market update
March 2024
Turkey(1)
- Turkey's Energy Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar, stated that the country plans to expand its nuclear power program following the completion of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Project (4 x VVER-1200 reactors totalling 4.8 GWe), which is being constructed by Russia's Rosatom and expected to enter commercial operations by 2028. The country is in negotiations with Russia, China, and South Korea for the development of nuclear power facilities at Thrace and Sinop, which would increase Turkey's installed nuclear capacity to 7.2 GWe by 2035, reaching 20 GWe by 2050
The UAE(2)
- Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation reports that the fourth reactor at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant (Korean-designedAPR-1400) will now transition to commercial operations. Following commissioning, the Barakah complex will produce up to 5.6 GWe, supplying c. 25% of domestic electricity demand. Construction commenced in 2012 with commercial operation of the initial three reactors taking place between April 2021 and February 2023
India(3)
- Subsequent to the successful grid connection of Unit 4 (700 MWe) at the Kakrapar Nuclear Power Plant (27 February), Indian Atomic Energy Commission Chairman, Ajit Kumar Mohanty, announced that India plans to triple its installed nuclear capacity from the current level of 7.5 GWe by 2030. The country has nine reactors under construction while the government has approved a further ten units to be built. Furthermore, the Indian AEC announced (8 April) that the country now plans to expand commercial nuclear power to 100 GWe by 2047
Taiwan(5)
- Legislators representing Taiwan's opposition political party, the Kuomintang ("KMT"), are pursuing the extension of the operating lives of the country's three remaining operational nuclear reactors. Recognising that Taiwan's current energy policy calls for the retirement of all reactors by 2025, the KMT has argued that nuclear energy has increasingly become an international trend due to concern about carbon emissions and climate change.
Furthermore, Taiwan's economy has been expanding necessitating additional electricity generation
Kenya(6)
- Kenya's Nuclear Power and Energy Agency released its latest strategic plan for the development of the country's first nuclear power plant. The "2023- 2027 Strategic Plan" sets forth six key areas from a strategic perspective: nuclear infrastructure development; stakeholder engagement and advocacy; energy research and innovation; energy capacity development; research reactor program, and; institutional sustainability. Kenya is planning to initiate site preparation for the power plant beginning in 2029, with construction commencing in 2030-2031 and commissioning in 2034
Sources:
- Daily Sabah; "Turkey Aims to Reach 7.2 GW Nuclear by 2035"; 26 March 2024
- ENEC Press Announcement; ""Unit 4 of Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant Successfully Connected to UAE Grad"; 1 March 2024
- The Times of India; "India to Triple N-Power Generation Capacity by 2030"; 27 March 2024
- Construction World; "India Aims for 100 GW Nuclear Power by 2047"; 8 April 2024
5) | Taiwan Times; "Taiwan's KMT Wants to Extend Life of Nuclear Power Plants"; 28 March 2024 | 4 |
6) | World Nuclear News; "Kenya Agency Outlines Nuclear Development Strategy"; 22 March 2024 | |
Proforma net asset value as at 9 April 2024
Investment in Uranium | Units | ||
Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U₃O₈")(1) | (A) | lbs. | 21,682,318 |
U₃O₈ fair value per pound(2) | (B) | US$ /lb. | 88.75 |
U₃O₈ fair value | (A) x (B) = (C) | US$ mm | 1,924.3 |
Cash and other net current assets / (liabilities)(3) | (D) | US$ mm | 32.2 |
Net asset value in US$ mm | (C) + (D) = (E) | US$ mm | 1,956.5 |
Exchange rate(4) | (F) | USD/GBP | 1.2675 |
Net asset value in £ mm | (E) / (F) = (G) | £ mm | 1,543.6 |
Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury(5) | (H) | 216,856,447 | |
Net asset value per share | (G) / (H) | £ /share | 7.12 |
Source:
- Comprises 20.16Mlbs. U3O8 held as at 9 April 2024, plus 1.53Mlbs. U3O8 which the Company has committed to purchase in H1 2024
- UxC, LLC on 9 April 2024
- Cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$132.2 million as at 31 December 2023 less cash consideration of US$100.0 million to be paid to Kazatomprom following delivery of 1.53 million lb of U3O8 in June 2024
- The Bank of England's daily exchange rate on 9 April 2024
5) Estimated proforma net asset value per share on 9 April 2024 is calculated assuming 221,440,730 ordinary shares in issue, less 4,584,283 shares held in treasury on that | 5 |
date | |
Yellow Cake corporate summary
Corporate overview
Last share price(1) | £6.22 |
NAV per share(2) | £7.12 |
Market cap (mm)(1) | £1,347.8 |
Shares outstanding less those held | 216.9 |
in treasury (mm) | |
Shares held in treasury (mm)(2) | 4.6 |
52 week high | £7.45 |
52 week low | £3.54 |
Analyst coverage and rating
GBP share price and uranium price L12M(1,3)
120
100
(US$/lb.)Price | 80 |
Spot | 60 |
Uranium | 40 |
20
10.00 | |
9.00 | |
8.00 | |
7.00 | (£) |
6.00 | Price |
Share | |
5.00 | |
4.00 | Cake |
Yellow | |
3.00 | |
2.00
1.00
Buy
- | - | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 | Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23 Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Share Price | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Buy | Blue chip shareholder register |
Buy | |
Buy
Hold
MMCAP Fund | JD Squared |
Source:
- Cap IQ on 9 April 2024
- Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 9 April 2024. See calculation on page 5
3) UxC, LLC 9 April 2024 | 6 |
U3O8 spot price is exceeding levels at the time of the Fukushima accident(1,2)
U3O8 Spot Price (US$ /lb.)
Current spot price | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
120 | 9 April 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$88.75) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | Fukushima accident | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 March 2011 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$68.08) | SPUT completes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
UPC acquisition | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 July 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$32.41) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yellow Cake IPO | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 July 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$22.94) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Supply cuts by major | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
producers stabilise | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
pricing | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40 | 2016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Driven by | Russia invades | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
20 | Fukushima, overall | Covid driven | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
demand falls on | Ukraine | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
curtailments add to | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
safety concerns | 24 February 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
supply pressure | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2011-2016 | (Spot US$45.00) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
March 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(Spot US$24.75) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
- | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Jan 11 | Jan 12 | Jan 13 | Jan 14 | Jan 15 | Jan 16 | Jan 17 | Jan 18 | Jan 19 | Jan 20 | Jan 21 | Jan 22 | Jan 23 | Jan 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Uranium Spot Price | Yellow Cake Equity Raises | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Source: | 7 |
1) UxC, LLC, "Historical Daily Broker Average Price", 9 April 2024 |
Climate change and energy transition supporting nuclear growth
Nuclear power generates the least CO2 equivalent emissions compared to all other power sources
CO2 equivalent emissions per GWh over the lifecycle of a power plant (tonnes)(1)
3
490
78-230
4 | 5 | 34 |
720820
Nuclear
Wind | Solar | Hydropower | Biomass | Natural Gas | Oil | Coal |
Note: Range of emissions from biomass depend on material being combusted
- Not only does nuclear generate >99% less CO2 equivalent emissions than non-renewable power sources (natural gas, oil, and coal), but it also generates the least amount of emissions when considering other renewable power sources traditionally considered environmentally friendly (wind and solar)
Source: | 8 |
1. Our World in Data, "Safest Sources of Energy", 2020
Global demand for nuclear increasing towards 2050
Market conditions and policies are shifting views on natural gas and limiting its role, while underlining the potential for nuclear power to cut emissions and strengthen electricity security(1)
Global nuclear energy demand scenarios (GW)(1)
1,000
800
600
400
200
-- | |||||||||||||
Stated Policies Scenario (GW) | Announced Pledges Scenario (GW) | Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (GW) | |||||||||||
2010 | 2021 | 2022 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | ||||||||
Source: | 9 |
1) World Energy Outlook, October 2023 | |
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Disclaimer
Yellow Cake plc published this content on 16 April 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 17 April 2024 15:13:03 UTC.