Fitch Ratings Indonesia has upgraded PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat dan Banten Tbk's (BJB) National Long-Term Rating to 'AA-(idn)' from 'A+(idn)'.

The Outlook is Stable.

The rating actions reflect Fitch's view of the government's increased propensity to support BJB, taking into consideration the bank's close linkage to government-linked entities.

'AA' National Ratings denote expectations of a very low level of default risk relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country or monetary union. The default risk inherent differs only slightly from that of the country's highest rated issuers or obligations.

Key Rating Drivers

Support Underpins Rating: The National Rating of BJB is support-driven and reflects Fitch's view of a moderate probability that the bank would receive extraordinary support from the central government, if needed. This assessment is based on BJB's systemic importance as Indonesia's largest regional development bank and the country's 14th largest commercial bank.

Moderate Systemic Importance: BJB had a market share of around 1.7% of banking industry assets as of end-June 2022, and is one of Indonesia's designated domestic systemically important banks (D-SIB), with a D-SIB capital charge in the lowest bucket of 1%. The bank has a considerable market share of around 10% in its home markets of West Java and Banten, two provinces with significant contribution to the national economy.

Sufficient Support Propensity: Fitch believes that BJB is important to the provincial governments of West Java and Banten, which together with the municipal governments in the two provinces own about 75% of the bank. Our view on the moderate support propensity is also based on the very limited possibility of bail-in of senior creditors, as the bank's liability structure is dominated by deposits by government-related entities.

Adequate Support Ability: Fitch believes that Indonesian sovereign (BBB/Stable) has a moderate ability to support Indonesian banks, given the small size of the banking system relative to peers. Indonesia has one of the lowest ratios of banking assets to GDP and moderate financial flexibility for its rating level. This is offset by a high proportion of assets under Indonesian banks, which would ultimately rely on the government's support in times of stress.

Rating Sensitivities

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

A downgrade of BJB's National Long-term Rating would arise from a weakening in its credit profile relative to other entities rated on our Indonesian national rating scale. This would most likely stem from a decline in the central government's propensity to support the bank, which could happen if the regional governments' ownership in the bank falls significantly, such that we believe that the regional governments will cease to be the controlling shareholders. However, we consider this to be unlikely in the near term.

A downgrade could also result from a sustained decline in the bank's systemic importance, such that we believe that its contagion risk is very limited. This would most likely arise from a sustained decline in the bank's market share, especially in its home markets of West Java and Banten, potentially reflected in a sustained decline in its national market share to below 1% and/or its regional market share to below 5%.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

An upgrade of BJB's National Long-term Rating would most likely arise from an increase in the government's propensity to support the bank. This could stem from an increased linkage with the central government or a significant increase in the bank's systemic importance. However, we believe this to be unlikely in the next 12-24 months.

BJB's National Long-Term Rating could also be upgraded if we believe that the central government's ability to provide support to Indonesia's banking system has increased. This could arise from a marked improvement in the government's financial flexibility, or a decline in the proportion of assets owned by banks, which may rely on the government for support in times of stress.

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