Just when investors thought it was safe to go back in the water,
-Things had been looking up for Magellan
-June FUM startles consensus
-Brokers divided
After
But the company's June funds under management (FUM) and outflows report put paid to that idea.
Net outflows in June were -
The company still appears to be mired in flow-quicksand, despite improvement in its flagship fund's performance, which triggered mark to markets by some brokers.
Many of the company's other funds are struggling to make headway and confidence is low. Yet brokers are divided.
While most see little chance of a major recovery any time soon, some maintain the share price has most likely bottomed, believing Magellan's balance sheet may yet prove its saviour.
Macquarie Smells Blood
Macquarie estimates Magellan holds
The broker now expects net outflows of -
Macquarie considers the Infrastructure fund's
While Magellan delivered
And time is money. So while the broker upgrades FY23 EPS forecasts 3.3%; it downgrades FY24 EPS forecasts -6.3%; and -16% to -18% thereafter.
Macquarie downgraded the fund manager to Underperform from Neutral in response to the update and cut the target price to
Jarden's Rule Of FUM
Jarden observes
But institutions continued to withdraw mandates from the global franchise, and the Australian franchise hasn't fared much better after the retirement of key man
Retail outflows were relatively stable month on month, but still constituted about 26% of assets under management, observes Jarden.
Given the risks to institutional flows and associate profits, the broker sees no reason to change its Underweight rating and its earnings forecasts are below consensus. Jarden cut its target price to
Mark To Markets And Intriguing Balance Sheet
Two brokers conducted sector round-ups this month and marked to market.
Magellan fared better in this respect but it didn't spare the company from flow-driven downgrades.
UBS downgraded earnings forecasts to reflect outflows and lower performance fees but retained the faith, noting markets were driving mark-to-market gains in cash and investments.
Undaunted, the broker holds a Buy rating and raises its target price to
Morgans Believes Outflows May Have Peaked
Morgans also finds succour after marking to market and likes to believe the worst is over, suspecting the company may have hit peak institutional outflows.
If anything, the broker spies risk in Retail FUM.
But the broker retains a Hold rating for now and shaves its target price to
Rounding Up The Ratings
All up, the average target price for
That figure includes pre-FUM rating updates from
The broker downgraded to Hold from Accumulate after the share price broke through its sell trigger, and cut the target price to
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