Kepler Weber S A : 4Q23 | Transcription

Operator:

Hello, everyone. Good morning, and welcome to Kepler Weber's 4Q23 results videoconference. Joining us today are Piero Abbondi, the CEO; Paulo Polezi, CFO and Investor Relations Director; and Bernardo Nogueira, Commercial Director, who will participate exclusively in the Q&A.

Please be advised that the presentation is being recorded and translated simultaneously. The translation is available by clicking on the 'interpretation' button. For those listening to the videoconference in English, there is the option to mute the original audio in Portuguese.

During the Company's presentation, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and ensuing this, we will go on to the question and answer session. To pose questions, click on the 'raise hand' icon. When you are announced, a prompt to activate your microphone will appear on the screen, and you must then enable your microphone to ask questions.

We would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this video conference call regarding Kepler Weber's business prospects, operating and financial targets are forward-looking statements by the Company's management, which may and may not occur. Investors should understand that political, macroeconomic and other operational factors may affect the Company's future and lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statement.

To open the 4Q23 results conference call, I will turn the floor over to Piero Abbondi.

Piero Abbondi:

Good morning, everyone. It is a pleasure to be here with you with another earnings results for Kepler. Let's go on to the key highlights.

Net revenues reached R$502 million, in a very robust level identical to the 4Q22, with an accrued amount of R$1.5 billion, which ranks the year of 2023 as the second best year in the Company's history. In the 4Q23, we saw a consolidation of the excellent sales that were resumed since July of last year. Our 5 segments of action presented very good business volume with a special highlight for port and terminals and replacements and services. Now Paulo will speak about the performance of each segment further ahead.

The second highlight was EBITDA that reached R$117 million in the 4Q23 and R$337 million for the full year. The margin of 22.3%, although it is lower than the 4Q22, is deemed to be very robust due to the challenges we faced in the 1H of the year and overcome during the year.

The margin management with a focus and control of expenses contributed to the results as well as stabilization of our main raw material, which is steel. We had robust net income reaching R$94 million in the quarter, with a margin of 18.7%, which reinforces our ability to deliver consistent results for shareholders.

I would now like to give the floor to Paulo to speak about the different business areas for the 4Q.

Paulo Polezi:

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Thank you, Piero. A good day to all of you. We are on slide 4, and I show you the evolution of our segments. We begin with Farms where we had a good level, invoicing R$151.2 million, 1.2% below the 4Q22. It was the highest in terms of invoicing because of the resumption of sales as of July 2023, with deliveries concentrated between October and December.

In Agribusiness, we made R$198.8 million for the quarter, 4.1% lower than the 4Q22. Now net revenue reached the highest level, thanks to investments in storage capacity of cooperatives to face the scarcity of grain storage in Brazil.

International Business reached revenues of R$32.2 million, 28.8% lower than the 4Q22 due to the water crisis that impacted the 2 main markets for exports: Paraguay and Uruguay. Another important market, Colombia, is facing political issues and has led to a reduction in investments.

In Ports and Terminals, we had a revenue of R$31.7 million with a growth of 5.7% vis-à-vis the same period last year. In 2023, Kepler reached success in this segment of Ports and Terminals, thanks to efficient strategies that gave thrust to our operations. Now if we look at the diversification in all areas of Brazil, this was key for the performance.

And finally, Replacement and Services, with an increase of 32.8% for the quarter and revenue of R$88.3 million, this segment stands out for diversification and resilience when it comes to the price of the commodities vis-à-vis the other segments of the Company. Our distribution centers led to increasing the number of clients. R&S was consolidated with the revenues of Procer. The adjusted net revenue without taking into account Procer would represent an increase of 5.9% over the 4Q22.

On slide 5 and 6, we show you projects that were delivered during the quarter, showing what Kepler does domestically and abroad. We have Jataí in the State of Goiás, thanks to the reduction of freight. This unit is closed to crops, contributes to the harvest of soybeans and also helps us to plant our second harvest.

The project of Ulianópolis in State of Pará is the first full work sold in the region, is a region for the producers and the region for super storage not only for the region, but also the north of Pará.

The Ponta Grossa project in the State of Paraná took our client to another level. He was able to increase his level of invoicing, working with a good reception and purchase of grains logistics.

On slide 6, you see the Sragen work in Indonesia created to service the demand for animal protein, of course, with silos that are resistant to earthquakes and rusting because it is close to the sea.

And then we have in Colombia the project El Yopal, which is a KW MAX grain dryer in the foreign market. This equipment delivers better quality in grain drying, with a lower environmental impact.

On slide 7, we show you the renewal of our orders and portfolio. We have new strategic supply contracted during the semester, and we have very large orders. In this chart, you can observe that besides the 10 medium- and large-sized projects for clients of Farms that represent R$82 million, we had 5 orders, or R$37.8 million that came from large cooperatives, 3 orders or R$21 million from international projects, and a very relevant work for the port sector of R$35.8 million.

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This shows our capacity in seeking out new projects in all of the segments where we are present. And we see the continuity of positive trends in Agribusiness, and Ports and Terminals.

On slide 8, we show you the EBITDA for the 4Q23 generating R$117.2 million, a margin 23.3% vis-à-vis an EBITDA of R$151.3 million with a margin of 30.1% in the 4Q22. For the full year 2023, we generated R$336.7 million with a margin of 22.3%, a highly satisfactory margin considering the challenging 1H of the year.

What explains the EBITDA are the reasons that also guided our performance during the year: stabilization of the cost of raw material, especially steel; a productive activity in the 2H of the year with volumes higher than average for the period; a very balanced use of prices; and of course, control on costs and expenses.

On slide 9, we will speak about our CAPEX. In the 4Q23, investments reached R$18.4 million. 70% were earmarked for investments in IT. During the quarter, we had R$13 million referring to important strides in the infrastructures of servidores in Panambi and Campo Grande. They will allow us a greater data processing stability and security of the operation. We reached R$71.4 million in CAPEX for the 4Q for the streamlining of our plant.

On slide 10, you see cash and cash equivalents that maintained a relevant level, ending with a robust amount of R$355.2 million. Although we have sped up investments in CAPEX and increased the payout of dividends in 2023, net cash also remained high at R$160 million on December of 2023.

On slide 11, you see the liquidity of our shares. The average volume was R$15 million in December, and we reached R$20 million per day, the best daily average trade of our share.

On slide 12, you see the return on invested capital that reached 44.2%, a reduction of

59.6 percentage points vis-à-vis the 12 months of 2022. There was an increase of CAPEX in 2023 because of our new painting line and lower prices practiced in the market, leading to a reduction in return on capital, but always above what is spent by the sector.

On slide 13, you see our complementary dividend and shareholder capital. So we have gone from 62% vis-à-vis 40% in 2022.

With this, I would like to conclude the presentation and return the floor to Piero.

Piero Abbondi:

Thank you very much, Paulo. Before the question-and-answer session, I would like to highlight our recent accomplishments and expectations for 2024. Regarding the accomplishments, we have the performance of Kepler in 2023 vis-à-vis a very challenging scenario, making of us benchmark. It was the second best year of our history. The good operational leverage and the management of margins were decisive for a robust EBITDA margin of 23.3% for the quarter.

The strong cash generation provided R$20 million in dividends to shareholders, and we maintained a very robust net cash. I would also like to mention the turnover of the portfolio in 2023 that returned to normalcy and was higher than the previous year. We

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also implemented the American depositary receipts program. The ticker is available for negotiation since February 2024.

Prospect for 2024, yes, the positive demand for project for Agribusiness, and Ports and Terminals will continue to be positive and provide good opportunities for future quarters. The lower pressure on cost of raw material, especially steel, along with gains in scale, will contribute to good profitability for the year. The Company remains disciplined, with a well-structured strategic direction to build businesses with profitability and sustainable growth.

With this, I would like to end the presentation of results for the 4Q23. Operator, we may proceed with the Q&A session.

Fernanda Urbano, XP:

Good morning, and congratulations for the results. Thank you for taking our questions. We have 2. First of all, about the demand for 2024, we have seen some concerns for this year because of climate issues that have impacted the margins of producers. If you could give us greater details in terms of demand. And what is happening with your orders qualitatively per segment to understand what happens between Farms and Agribusiness?

The second question is about profitability. In 2023, the EBITDA margin closed at a more normal level, a still very robust level in our vision. What are you expecting for 2024 if you take into account mix, raw material and the prospects for demand?

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question. To speak about the portfolio, and then I will give the floor to Paulo to speak about profitability. We have been following up on the news, the movement of commodities and the production of harvest. And for the last 5 years, we have been working for this moment, diversifying business, strengthening Ports and Terminals.

And the result of this is that we have a highly diversified portfolio, growing 10% to 20% in the segment. This is what we saw in 2023. And the growth of all segments shows us that we will be able to repeat this process of 2023 in 2024.

I would like to reinforce your concern about the drought that, of course, will cause pressure on 30% of our business. But on the other hand, we have very favorable wins, which is the scarcity of storage and negative premiums. Although producers have less cash, less ability to invest, we see there will be an appreciation in storage.

When it comes to making an investment, I will give the floor to Paulo to speak about profitability.

Paulo Polezi:

Good morning, Fernanda, thank you for the question. I would like to divide my question in 2 parts. We celebrated the margin for the 4Q, a very sound margin, a margin that, if compared to 2022, which was an extraordinary year for us, was good. And as a company, we are very proud of the work we carried out in-house in terms of business, capturing orders and bringing diversification in-house. And the 23% EBITDA margin of 2023 converted with all of this. This is how I would like to answer the question.

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To speak about what we foresee going forward, the first part is what Bernardo mentioned. The portfolio a somewhat larger portfolio than it was last year. This gives us greater visibility, security that we are beginning the year on the right foot with good volumes and health. And it helps us to work with margins.

To go back to 2022, this truly was an extraordinary year with an EBITDA margin of 30%. 2023 was a year of a return to normalcy. We had seasonality, a typical first semester, an uptick of pace in the second semester, with a close of 23% at the end of the year.

Forthcoming, Fernanda, we see a continuity of the scenario of 2023. Despite some discounts, it is our understanding that we will continue to work with the same level of profitability that we had in 2023. Of course, slight differences, the impact of mix somewhat more in Agribusiness, but all of this should help us to work with that vertical. Once again, we will attain the same levels of 2023.

André Mazini, Citibank:

Thank you for taking my questions. The question is a follow-up of the last one. You said that you are at 30% in terms of your sales to individual people, 30% of your total volume. And in 2023, there was a decrease. It was at 22 because of several reasons, credit, confidence and much more. In 2024, will this return to a historical average? And which is that historical average for individual person companies?

The second question refers to the disinvestment that the American government is carrying out in Brazil. The second player of silos in Brazil has publicly disclosed that they are selling their silos in several geographies, including Brazil. This was remarked in the press. Have there been any new developments? Has there been a bid for the portfolio of this American company?

And you have 40% share in Brazil as a whole. I think that your share is high because you are in the south and you have your main plant in Rio Grande do Sul. Would that player's footprint be complementary with you? Do they have a higher share in the North where you do not have a high share? If you could speak about the competitive dynamic between yourselves and the second player. Thank you.

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question, André. I would like to begin speaking about farmers and their share in our business and expectations for 2024. And then I will give the floor to Piero to continue on with the answer.

Farmers, of course, are less capitalized this year vis-à-vis former harvest. This is an extraordinary moment for farmers. They began in the harvest 2020, 2021. To give you a practical response to your question, we see this level decreasing during 2023. But there is stability in our portfolio when it comes to farmers, at least for the year 2023. Our order portfolio for 2024 has grown even with these farmers.

And I would like to highlight how storage in the last few years has become a true priority. It has been important, but it has become something critical. This is something that we felt in the last 2 harvests. We went from 270,000 tonnes to 300 million tonnes. And the more professional, more structured farmers look at the harvest that is forthcoming for 2024, 2025 as a full harvest, and they are beginning to make investments in storage.

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I will now give the floor to Piero to speak about GSI.

Piero Abbondi:

Thank you, André, for the question. Simply to remark on what Bernardo has already answered, I would like to underscore that, throughout the years, Kepler has been working to attain that position of robustness to be able to face the differences of demand in the different segments. We are present throughout the chain, the producer, the agribusiness, also linked to green energy, biodiesel, animal protein and the entire chain of exports, ports and terminals, which is another important part of our Brazilian business, the export of grains, and the service area. So we have a variety of levers that we can use each year when we see different growth drivers.

In terms of the rural producer, of course, they have shrunk to 30%. They used to represent 40 or more percent. Depending on the year, we have different levers and ever more, we are creating this robustness so that Kepler can work throughout the entire chain and not only on crops.

To speak about GSI, we are following up on this closely. We have not heard any novelty in terms of this process. Of course, this is our core business. We are following up very carefully on this.

When it comes to competition and market coverage, besides our concern of having a good footprint in all of the segments of the chain, we are also concerned with coverage with the Kepler geographical footprint. We are large companies in several areas, and there's always an area where somebody stands out. So in the last few years, not only now, we have worked towards having a better footprint, better capillarity to face up to these different regions and onetime issues.

Regarding GSI, we are awaiting. We are following up on this, and as soon as we have a novelty, we will update you in the next call. Thank you very much, and I would like to end my remarks here.

Alessandro Pacanowski, Grão:

Good morning. First of all, I would like to congratulate you for the results obtained in the 4Q23. Of course, there has been mention of each margin, each increase in revenues that you have been able to build. My question refers to capital allocation. It is the market understanding that net cash could be understood as lack of allocation of the capital.

Given that, I would like to better understand why you are maintaining the net cash, which is the base of this strategy and if it would not make sense considering the net cash to speed up the share buyback that has already been approved but has not truly been executed for a strategy to increase your indebtedness, create a tax shield and release an extraordinary payout. So which is your strategy for net cash? How do you imagine your capital allocation for 2024?

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question, Alessandro. It is important to always speak about the capital structure and opportunities. We are quite cautious and careful when we look forthcoming.

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First of all, I would like to underscore some movements. There is a great discipline when we do this. We are a company with an order portfolio. If we look towards the future, we can understand the movement. And this helps us to plan cash and plan our debt levels.

Nowadays, we have a very good cash position, lower debt level. And if we go back 2 years, the Company will recall that we had a relevant capital reduction through a subscription bonus. We did have a significant reduction. We worked with a very large package of return for investors.

But at the same time, we are executing a sustainable strategy for the growth of business, be it through organic investments, CAPEX programs. In the last 3 years, we have invested approximately R$15 million a year. For the year 2023, we hit a record of investments, R$71 million.

These are investments in streamlining plants, enhancing capacity, diversification, security and the IT infrastructure. And all of these investments bring us a high return above average. That is why we are investing, allowing the Company to continue to grow and pace demand.

A second movement that we also carried out and we have plans to continue was the inorganic opportunity, the M&A of Procer. With digital technology, we are highly satisfied with the operations of Procer. It provided approximately R$50 million of our resources. And we do this in an organized way.

Looking at debt, we want to pay off Procer using our own cash. In this sense, it is necessary to continue to invest in Kepler. The market is growing. There are good opportunities before us. We will continue to grow organically, and there are inorganic opportunities that we are considering. Presently, we would like to maintain that cash and net cash position to make the investments that will bring important returns for the Company.

Of course, Alessandro, we do look at opportunities, the buyback of shares, that is part of our pipeline, and the payout of dividends. The return for shareholders is a priority. This was done in 2023 shareholders' equity, payout of shareholders. And we have to be able to properly manage these 2 levers. Thank you for the questions.

Anderson Bezerra & Rodrigo de Campos Queiroz, Investors; Jhon Wine, Blessed Clube de Investimentos (via webcast):

According to the research of PwC, only 35% of CEOs of the Brazilian agribusiness are projecting a growth of revenues for the coming 12 months. Are you part of that minority? And could you remark on the pace of growth of your R&S revenues? Can we still expect healthy growth for the coming years?

Piero Abbondi:

Thank you for the question, very interesting. And I think we can respond to it objectively that, yes, we are part of the minority. We are optimistic for 2024, but there is a robust reason for that. Kepler is not rural producers or harvest only nowadays. And in the past, 1/3 of our revenue came from rural producers.

We have already discussed those dynamics. So we are insisting on having a footprint throughout the entire Agribusiness chain, International Business, Ports and Terminals that will put together exports to Agribusiness.

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We have several fronts we speak about Agribusiness. It seems to be a single front, but there are several drivers for growth in each front. And yes, of course, this makes our stance of Kepler a special stance in Agribusiness because we are less impacted by fluctuations or the mood of the rural producer.

And yes, we are optimistic for the long term. We truly believe in the Brazilian agribusiness for different reasons. We have already discussed this in different forum. The Brazilian grains, soybeans and corn will continue to be very important for the growth of the business. So we are quite optimistic for the year 2024.

I will give the floor to Bernardo to speak in greater detail about the segments, to give you perhaps more visibility in terms of R&S and technical assistance.

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question. I think we have spoken about our strategy that goes from domestic business, port, and replacement and services. To delve deeper in R&S, yes, there is a continuous growth in this segment.

We have been investing steadily, we have increased from 5 to 9 in these last 2 years. This year, we had a growth of 7% in number of client service, reaching 1,370 clients. We are ever closer to the farmer and Agribusiness, and Replacement and Services helped us in this proximity.

An interesting aspect of Replacement and Service that began in March with the acquisition of Procer is the digitization of the unit and the digitization has 2 important elements: first of all, to add value to a unit, whether it is new or if it is being refurbished, adding value, helping farmers to preserve grains or to allow the managers to have a more professional management.

And a second very important element of our strategy is to keep the connection with the client. In Procer, we have a recurrent business of subscriptions for service. Procer grew 100% in 2023, and we hope that it will grow another 100% in 2024, helping the client throughout the entire journey through this digitization.

Renato Luiz dos Santos, Kevin Cunha, Claudio Siccherino, Pedro Egídio & Ubirajara (via webcast):

Which will be the dividend policy for 2024 and the investments that you foresee? If you could inform us if there is an estimate for the payment of dividends. And the value that will be paid out to shareholders through dividends and equity shareholder, will it retain the level of 40%, 45%? Is your legal reserve of profit complete, or will you have to complement this through net profits?

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question. This is a rather long question, and I will answer it in parts. In the first part, we spoke about our investment plans and what we will do with dividends. And so we do have an important pipeline of investments that we will continue to be making in the Company.

We should always remember that we have working capital that consumes some of our resources. And our dividend policy, of course, is set forth by the bylaws, and it is

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approximately 50% of payout. We are going to continue with this. There is no reason not to maintain our robust policy of dividend payout.

Based on everything that we have said, what we have built for the Company, the Company has potential to grow a very strong cash generation. And the priority, therefore, is to continue making investment. As the projects materialize or not, the surplus, of course, could be paid out in dividend.

This year was an example. We ended up having 2 additional intermediate payouts of dividends. There is still room, if the Board wishes to do this, to pay out more intermediate dividends. But we do have a significant pipeline of opportunities, and we are going to prioritize our investments. Should we not make investments, it makes economic and financial sense not to have a very high cash structure.

Marcelo Azem, Everest Capital Gestão de Recursos (via webcast):

Which is the Company expectation referring to Proana project, the program for national storage presented by Senator Paulo Paim? Are you able to comment on what happens with this project at the Senate?

Paulo Polezi:

Good morning, and thank you for the questions. I will answer part of it, and Piero will answer another part. For those of you who follow up on the Company, of course, this is a very good initiative. The timing is perfect at the moment in which we have a scarcity of storage, strangulation in the chain of logistics. This is a very good project for the sector. We embrace the initiative.

And the intention of Proana is to come with new credit offers besides the PCA lines mechanisms and instruments that will increase the offer of credit at very competitive funding rates.

We would like to remind you that it is still at an incipient stage in the congress. It still has not been debated in the congress. We are following up on this closely, and we have great confidence that there will be new incentives for a sector that is very important for the country, which is agribusiness and storage that adds value for our product, of course, and for exports. Piero, are you participating in these conversations?

Piero Abbondi:

Thank you Paulo. Yes. Our responsibility is to follow up on any movements that may impact the sector. We not only follow up on this issue specifically, but we also follow up on what is called the Plano Safra, the Harvest Plan, and the PCA. We attempt to always contribute with the different government levels.

And we do this through our association that, jointly with other producers, the Sectoral Chamber of Storage, under the umbrella of Abimaq, so we count upon the support of Abimaq, to help us in this process and to inform us who is leading and defining the general guidance for storage.

Simply a comment, in the last few years due to pressure on the grain logistic process, we ended up having enormous visibility. We appeared in the national headlines. It's a very technical issue for the agribusiness sector and for the Ministry of Agriculture, and all of this has appeared in the headlines.

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It is a significant problem with great visibility. The Brazilian society should address this, first of all, in terms of the businesses, exports; and secondly, with the food security warranty, which is a very important topic.

Caio Araújo, investor:

Good morning. We have 2 questions, the first, about Procer. I would like to know which is the percentage of your products that are coming out with this technology, and how the actions of the Company are divided.

And in terms of agribusiness, which has been the search for the ADRs that have been launched in partnership with BTG Pactual?

Bernardo Nogueira:

Thank you for the question. We are very enthusiastic with Procer. What we expected would happen is already in place. To answer your question, all of the new Kepler units are offered with this technology embarked. And the clients accepted, put it to use or can do this subsequently. 53% of the units have come out with this technology already embarked.

And there is a sequence of integration for Procer that we are speeding up for 2024. This began in April, May of 2023. We would like to have 70% of the units with this technology embarked or embedded.

Another point that I would like to underscore, our strategy with agro intelligence of bringing data for storage is to have broad licensing. In new units, we have agreements with other manufacturers that are not Procer, a direct agreement with other manufacturers to embed this technology as well. Of course, we are always concerned in creating a Chinese wall between what happens among manufacturers, and Procer will continue to be independent because of this reason.

Third very important point in the growth of digitization is that we want to reach 50% of the units of Brazil connected. We are at 14.8% of the Brazilian capacity monitored. And to reach that 50%, we have to work strongly with R&S with refurbishment and streamlining.

And beginning in 2024, Procer will be in our distribution centers as well, working very closely with the clients in Luis Eduardo and Sorriso. We have more than 100 users in our cities every month. So along with Procer, we are going to speed up the penetration of technology through replacement and services.

I will now give the floor to Paulo.

Paulo Polezi:

Let's speak about Fiagro and give you an update. We have a total fund of R$300 million available. It is a partnership with BNDES and BTG Pactual to fund all the part of work, the equipment and the civil construction. We have a term of 10 years for funding with an important grace period. And all of this is linked to CDI plus the spread. Up to present, we have had very few disbursements in this fund because of the economic issues, the high interest rates, which inhibited us somewhat.

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