The torments of the 2016-2018 period, marked by analysts' distrust, a €2 billion cumulative operating deficit and market shares that have reached a plateau in the domestic market, seem to be well and truly put in the rearview mirror.

As usual, one might say, Xavier Niel's group has silenced the critics thanks to a successful internationalization and, in France, a fast-paced launch of fiber.
As a result, the number of subscribers in Europe has more than doubled over the last five years, making Iliad the sixth largest operator in Europe.

Revenues will grow by 6.4% in 2022, the highest rate among its peers on the old continent. Over the decade 2012-2022, Iliad has grown at an impressive annualized rate of 10.5%. Its performance beats Altice and Orange, both of which are declining.

The French and Polish markets are very profitable - the former thanks to the historical footprint, the latter because the sector is consolidated and investments are limited for the time being - while Italy should soon break even.

The recruitment dynamic remains excellent everywhere, in France as well as in Poland and Italy, for both mobile and fiber. Free cash flow reached €1.1 billion from operating activities, or €1.3 billion including dividends received from non-consolidated subsidiaries.

This very good commercial and strategic success should not make us lose sight of the hyper-capital-intensive nature of the business, and the uneven profitability that inevitably follows.

Iliad generates €2B of cumulative cash profits over the last decade, all of which is returned in dividends. The €4.5 billion invested in acquisitions has therefore required a substantial increase in debt.

The net debt reaches €11 billion, which is, according to the management, who will have to be taken at their word on this matter - it's a risk - x3.2 the adjusted EBITDA post merger of the Polish operators Play and UPC, not fully reflected in the annual accounts since it has been effective since last April.

The refinancing of this debt - as it stands, remarkably cheap at an average cost of 3.8% - will be the hot topic for Iliad in the coming quarters. Significant repayments - €6.5 billion in total - are concentrated between 2024 and 2026.

On the eve of a rise in interest rates in Europe, those with a sour attitude will point out that this could be a bad time. More optimistic observers will argue that the operator has seen it all before, and that this is a minor challenge after all.