Fonterra Shareholders Fund : Global Dairy Update May 2022

onlyMAY 2022

Global Dairy useUPDATE

Our Markets

personal	• New Zealand, Australia and US monthly
production continues to decline. EU monthly
		production increases.
		• EU and New Zealand monthly exports decline,
		Australia and US exports continue to grow.
		• Sharp decline in China monthly imports.
		Latin America monthly imports down.
		Middle East & Africa and Asia imports up.
For	• Fonterra New Zealand milk collections for
April were 112.1 million kgMS, down 5.1% on
April last season. At the end of April, season-
to-date collections were 3.8% down on last
season.
• Fonterra Australia collections for April were
7.9 million kgMS, a 2.0% decrease on April last
		season and down 1.2% for the season-to-date
		compared to the prior season.

Our Performance

• Third quarter business update.

For further details,	CLICK HERE
view our website -

• Grass-fed gaining traction in Vietnam.

Our Co-op

• Fonterra expands seaweed trial.

Key Dates

1 June 2022	31 July 2022	September 2022
Start of the 2022/23 Season	End of FY22 Financial Year	FY22 Annual Results
		Announcement

1

OUR MARKETS

Global Production

only
use
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in production -
	CLICK HERE
personalcompared to the same period

NEW ZEALAND

5.6%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

3.7%

Change for the 12 months to

April 2022

New Zealand, Australia and US monthly production continues to decline, EU monthly production increases

AUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION USA

5.1	0.7	1.0	%
%	%
Change for March 2022	Change for February 2022	Change for April 2022
compared to March 2021	compared to February 2021	compared to April 2021
%	%		%
2.3Change for the 12 months	0.2Change for the 12 months	0.4Change for the 12 months
to March 2022	to February 2022	to April 2022

New Zealand milk production¹ decreased 5.6% on a litres basis, (down 5.2% on milk solids basis) in April

the year prior.

Warm, dry and generally Forunfavourable conditions

c ntinued into April, impacting pastures and milk production. Some beneficial rain was observed in parts of the South Island.

New Zealand milk production for the 12 months to April was down 3.7% on the year prior.

Fonterra New Zealand collections are reported for April, see page 5 for details.

Australia milk production

decreased 5.1% in March compared to the same period the year prior.

Production continued to decline year-on-year, as a result of below average rainfall, labour constraints, and increasing input prices.

Australia milk production for the 12 months to March was 2.3% lower than the year prior.

Both Dairy Australia and Rabobank have revised their FY22 forecasts down, Rabobank to -3.5% and Dairy Australia to -1% to -3%.

Fonterra collections in Australia are reported for April, see page 5 for details.

EU milk production² was up 0.7% in February compared to the same period the year prior.

Increases in Poland, Italy, Ireland and Austria production were offset by ongoing weaker production observed in Netherlands, France

and Germany.

EU milk production for the 12 months to February was up 0.2% compared to the same period the year prior, driven by increases in Italy, Ireland, Poland and Hungary and offset by decreases in Germany, Netherlands and France.

US milk production

decreased by 1.0% in April, compared to the same period the year prior.

Smaller herd sizes compared to this time last year are contributing to the decrease in production. Rising feed and fuel prices are a constraint to the rebuilding of milk herds.

Milk production for the 12 months to April was 0.4% higher compared to the same period the year prior.

1. New Zealand production is measured in litres.
2. Excludes UK.

2

OUR MARKETS

Global Exports

only
use
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in exports -
	CLICK HERE
personaleriod the year prior.

NEW ZEALAND

0.9%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

0.8%

Change for the 12 months to April 2022

EU and New Zealand monthly exports decline, Australia and US exports continue to grow

AUSTRALIAEUROPEAN UNION USA

26.5	7.8%	0.5
%		%
Change for March 2022	Change for February 2022	Change for March 2022
compared to March 2021	compared to February 2021	compared to March 2021
21.2	1.9%	7.3%
%
Change for the 12 months	Change for the 12 months	Change for the 12 months
to March 2022	to February 2022	to March 2022

Total New Zealand dairy exports were down 0.9%, or 2,501 MT, in April compared to the same

Lower shipments of WMP Forto China and Sri Lanka given

the lock-down and economic disruptions. Offsetting

the decline, was stronger demand for SMP from South East Asia, for butter from China and South East Asia and for AMF from Mexico and Denmark.

Exports for the 12 months to April were down by 0.8%, or 27,407 MT, on the previous comparable period. This was primarily driven by decreases in WMP and AMF and infant formula but partially offset by increases in fluid milk products, casein, and SMP.

Australia dairy exports increased 26.5%, or 19,287 MT, in March compared to the same period the year prior.

Strong export volumes in March continue to be driven by high demand for fluid milk products from China, up 14,016 MT. Increases in WMP and other powders and cheese exports were also observed.

Exports for the 12 months to March were up 21.2%, or 164,989 MT, on the previous comparable period.

This was predominantly driven by increases in fluid milk products, as well as SMP and WMP.

EU dairy exports decreased 7.8%, or

44,067 MT, in February compared to the same period the year prior.

Lower exports volumes were driven by decreases in fluid milk products, SMP and whey, partially offset by increases in cheese, cultured products, butter and lactose.

Exports for the 12 months to February were down 1.9%, or 139,780 MT, on the previous comparable period, driven by declines in infant formula, cultured products, WMP, SMP and butter and partially offset by increases in fluid milk products, cheese and MPC.

US dairy exports remain high and increased 0.5%, or 1,260 MT, in March compared to the same period the year prior.

Strong demand continued for cheese to Mexico and South Korea as well as butter to Canada. Exports of WPC to China also grew. This was partially offset by lower shipments of SMP, lactose and smaller volumes of whey to China.

Exports for the 12 months to March 2022 were up 7.3%, or 188,717 MT, on the previous comparable period, driven by cheese, lactose, whey, SMP and fluid milk products.

3

OUR MARKETS

Global Imports

only
use
To view a chart that
illustrates year-on-year
changes in imports -
	CLICK HERE
personalsame period the year prior.

LATIN AMERICA

2.3%

Change for February 2022 compared to February 2021

3.4%

Change for the 12 months to February 2022

Sharp decline in China monthly imports. Latin America monthly imports down. Middle East and Africa and Asia imports up

ASIAMIDDLE EAST & AFRICA CHINA

9.4%	15.6%	21.2%
Change for February 2022	Change for February 2022	Change for April 2022
compared to February 2021	compared to February 2021	compared to April 2021
%	%	%
3.7Change for the 12 months	Change7.7for the 12 months	1.4Change for the 12 months
to February 2022	to February 2022	to April 2022

Latin America dairy import volumes¹ decreased 2.3%, or 3,692 MT, in February compared to the

The decrease was driven Forby lower demand for

WMP to Brazil and Cuba, and fluid milk products to the Dominican Republic and Chile.

Imports for the 12 months to February were up 3.4% compared to the same period the year prior, driven by higher volumes of cheese, SMP, whey and butter and partially offset by declines in WMP.

Asia (excluding China) dairy import volumes¹

increased 9.4%, or

34,709 MT, in February compared to the same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by higher demand for SMP to the Philippines and Thailand, WMP to Vietnam and lactose to Japan.

Imports for the 12 months to February were up 3.7%, or 177,623 MT, compared to the same period the year prior, driven by higher volumes of whey, cheese, SMP and WPC and partially offset by a decrease in WMP.

Middle East and Africa dairy import volumes¹

increased 15.6%, or

58,719 MT, in February compared to the same period the year prior.

The increase was driven by higher volumes across most product categories, and specifically of SMP to Egypt and Algeria, cheese to Libya and Egypt, and WMP to Oman.

Imports for the 12 months to February were up 7.7%, or 368,791 MT, compared to February the year prior, driven by increases in cheese, fluid milk products and SMP.

China dairy import volumes decreased by 21.2%, or 73,377 MT, in April compared to the same period the year prior, which were historically high.

Lower volumes were observed across most products in April as lock- down disruptions continue, and more specifically fluid milk products, whey, SMP and WMP imports. Volumes of butter and WPC increased year-on-year.

Imports for the 12 months to April were up 1.4%, or 54,096 MT, driven by WMP, SMP and fluid milk products, partially offset by decreases in whey and infant formula.

1 Estimates are included for those countries that have not reported data.

4

OUR MARKETS

Fonterra Milk Collections

only
use
To view a table that shows
	detailed milk collections in New
	Zealand and Australia compared
	to the previous season -
personal		CLICK HERE

New Zealand Milk Collections

LITRESDAY	•
•
M
VOLUME

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

NEW ZEALAND

5.1%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

3.8%

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

Fonterra's New Zealand collections for April were 112.1 million kgMS, 5.1% lower than last April.

Season-to-date collections were 1,408.5 million kgMS, 3.8% behind last season.

ForApril saw warm, dry conditions with only isolated showers

in parts, providing improved pasture growing conditions. Milk volumes are generally declining as expected at this stage of the season as farmers prepare for next season, ensuring pasture covers and cows are in good condition.

NORTH ISLAND

5.2%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

4.2%

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

North Island milk collections in April were

60.9 million kgMS, 5.2% behind April last season.

Season-to-date collections were 833.0 million kgMS, 4.2% behind last season.

Warm, dry conditions continued to affect key milking regions, with some farmers opting to conserve feed through once-a-day milking and drying off parts of herds earlier than normal.

SOUTH ISLAND

5.0%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

3.2%

Season-to-date

1 June to 30 April

South Island milk collections in April were

51.2 million kgMS, 5.0% lower than last April.

Season-to-date collections were 575.5 million kgMS, 3.2% behind last season.

The warm and dry conditions that have adversely impacted milk production particularly in the lower South Island, were alleviated to a degree by rain that arrived in the middle of the month.

AUSTRALIA

2.0%

Change for April 2022 compared to April 2021

1.2%

Season-to-date 1 July to 30 April

Fonterra'sAustralia collections for April were

7.9 million kgMS, a 2.0% decrease on April last season.

Volumes from third party collections decreased

0.5m kgMS year-on-year and were largely offset by increased farm collections of 0.4m kgMS from new suppliers who have joined this season.

Fonterra collections across Australia for the nine months for the season-to-date were

91.1 million kgMS, a 1.2% decline on last season.

The inclusion of off-GDT sales contributed approximately 11 cents per kgMS to the Milk Price for the season

to 30 April 2022.

Outlook for Fonterra in New Zealand

per

NZD 8.25-

kgMS 9.75

Forecast Farmgate Milk Price for the 2022/23 season

1,510M

kgMS

Forecast milk collection for the 2022/23 season

5