Supplemental Financial Presentation 4th Quarter 2023
Forward-looking Statements
This Supplemental Financial Presentation contains "forward-looking statements," as that term is used in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, concerning our business and outlook, including our expected sales, comparable store sales, selling square footage growth, depreciation, net interest expense, effective tax rate, diluted earnings per share, capital expenditures, and new store growth for the first quarter and fiscal year 2024; our expected gross margin for fiscal year 2024; various underlying factors that impact our outlook for the first quarter and fiscal year 2024, fiscal year 2025, and thereafter; expectations regarding 2024 import routing scenarios and volume; and our plans and expectations regarding various initiatives and investments.
These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results may differ materially from those indicated in these statements.
For information on the risks and uncertainties that could affect our actual results, please see the "Risk Factors," "Business" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" sections in our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed on March 10, 2023, our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the most recently ended fiscal quarter, and other filings we make from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on the company's plans, estimates and expectations as of March 13, 2024, and you should not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing the company's views after such date. Except as required by law, the company specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements contained in this presentation as a result of developments occurring after March 13, 2024, and you should not expect us to do so.
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Comparable Store Sales Composition
Traffic, Average Ticket, Consumables, and Discretionary1
FISCAL 2022 | FISCAL 2023 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | |
TOTAL | 11.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% |
Customer Traffic | (3.6%) | (5.8%) | (5.2%) | (1.1%) | (3.9%) | 5.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% |
Average Ticket | 15.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 13.4% | (2.1%) | (1.6%) | (1.5%) | (0.7%) | (1.5%) |
Consumables | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.5% |
Discretionary | 14.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 1.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
FISCAL 2022 | FISCAL 2023 | |||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | |
TOTAL | (2.8%) | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.0% | (1.2%) | 3.2% |
Customer Traffic | (3.7%) | (1.2%) | 0.1% | 0.5% | (1.0%) | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.5% |
Average Ticket | 1.0% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | (2.0%) | 0.7% |
Consumables | 1.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 6.7% |
Discretionary | (14.7%) | (4.1%) | 1.5% | 0.5% | (4.4%) | (4.4%) | (5.7%) | (12.5%) | (12.0%) | (8.8%) |
1Compared to same period in prior fiscal year | 3 |
Dollar Tree
Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift Over Time
YOY Consumables Mix Shift
-90 | -280 | -20 | +180 | +170 | +220 | +210 | +190 | |||||
bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | |||||
49.2% | 48.3% | 45.5% | 46.2% | 46.8% | 46.2% | 42.5% | 45.3% | 48.0% | 48.5% | 48.4% | 44.6% | 47.2% |
50.8% | 51.7% | 54.5% | 53.8% | 53.2% | 53.8% | 57.5% | 54.7% | 52.0% | 51.5% | 51.6% | 55.4% | 52.8% |
FY | FY | FY | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | ||||||||
Discretionary | Consumables |
Discretionary Categories = Seasonal & Variety
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Family Dollar
Consumables vs. Discretionary Mix Shift Over Time
YOY Consumables Mix Shift | |||||||||||||
-100 | -20 | +140 | +200 | +230 | +290 | +290 | +260 | ||||||
bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | bps | ||||||
77.5% | 76.5% | 76.3% | 78.1% | 77.3% | 79.1% | 76.6% | 77.7% | 80.1% | 79.6% | 82.0% | 79.5% | 80.3% | |
22.5% | 23.5% | 23.7% | 21.9% | 22.7% | 20.9% | 23.4% | 22.3% | 19.9% | 20.4% | 18.0% | 20.5% | 19.7% | |
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | FY | |
FY | FY | FY | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | |||||||||
Discretionary | Consumables |
Discretionary Categories = Home, Apparel, Accessories, Seasonal, Electronics
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Family Dollar Taking Consumables Market Share
% Change vs. Last Year
$ Sales Volume
Unit Volume
Market FD
10.6% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | |||
8.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | |||||
7.5% | |||||||
6.3% | 6.9% | ||||||
4.8% | |||||||
3.5% | 3.9% | ||||||
2.5% | |||||||
1.2% | |||||||
2.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | |||||
0.8% | |||||||
-1.2% | -1.7% | -2.2% | -1.9% | -2.1% | -2.6% | -1.8% | -0.8% |
-5.8% | -4.3% | ||||||
-6.3% | |||||||
-8.1% | |||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
FY 2022 | FY 2023 |
Source: Nielsen Market Data in competing markets that include participating retailers across food, drug, mass, club, and dollar channels | 6 |
Dollar Tree Taking Consumables Market Share
% Change vs. Last Year
$ Sales Volume
11.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.5%10.2% | 12.1% | Market | DT | ||||
9.7% | ||||||||||
9.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | |||||||
8.2% | 7.2% | |||||||||
4.8% |
2.2% | 1.1% |
8.4% | 6.4% | 8.0% |
3.6%
Unit Volume
-2.1% | -2.6% | -3.3% | -2.6% |
-9.5% | -7.2% | ||
-11.3% | -11.2% | ||
Q1 | Q4 | ||
Q2 | Q3 | ||
FY 2022 |
-2.8% | -3.0% | -2.5% | -1.5% |
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
FY 2023 |
Source: Nielsen Market Data in competing markets that include participating retailers across food, drug, mass, club, and dollar channels | 7 |
Sales per Square Foot
by Segment
$234 | $220 | $234 | ||||||||
$200 | $201 | $203 | ||||||||
$225 | $227 | |||||||||
$220 | $221 | FY 19 | FY 20 | FY 21 | FY 22 | FY 23 | ||||
Dollar Tree | ||||||||||
$216 | $220 | |||||||||
$212 | $218 | $218 | ||||||||
$210 | $214 | $216 | ||||||||
$214 | $212 | $214 | $220 | |||||||
$211 | ||||||||||
$210 | $191 | |||||||||
$209 | ||||||||||
1Q22 | 2Q22 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | FY 19 | FY 20 | FY 21 | FY 22 | FY 23 | ||
Dollar Tree | Family Dollar | Family Dollar | ||||||||||||
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Operating Margin (GAAP)
Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change
FY 2023 | Q4 Trend Drivers | |||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | ||||
Prior Year - GAAP | 20.2% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 16.8% | 16.5% | |||
COGS | Merchandise Cost1 | (420) | (275) | 55 | 230 | (85) | ↑ | Lower freight costs |
↓ | Product cost inflation, unfavorable product mix | |||||||
COGS | Occupancy | 5 | 35 | 15 | 60 | 30 | ↑ | Sales leverage, 53rd week impact |
COGS | Distribution | (80) | (75) | (70) | (30) | (65) | ↓ | Higher capitalized costs last year, higher DC and |
merchandising costs | ||||||||
COGS | Shrink | (55) | (75) | (60) | (30) | (55) | ↓ | Unfavorable inventory results |
COGS | Markdowns | 20 | (5) | 0 | 0 | 5 | ↔ | |
SG&A | Payroll | (75) | (60) | (60) | (70) | (65) | ↑ | Sales leverage |
↓ | Store payroll investments, incentive compensation | |||||||
SG&A | Facilities | (50) | (40) | (5) | (5) | (25) | ↑ | Sales leverage |
↓ | Repair & maintenance investments | |||||||
↑ | Sales and 53rd week leverage | |||||||
SG&A | Other2 | (5) | (15) | 5 | (95) | (30) | ↓ | D&A from incremental capex, self-insurancetrue-up, |
impairment | ||||||||
Current Year - GAAP | 13.6% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 17.4% | 13.6% | |||
Variance vs. Last Year | -660 bps | -510 bps | -120 bps | 60 bps | -290 bps |
Note: All figures rounded to nearest 5 bps | 1Includes Freight (Import, Inbound, and Outbound) | 2Includes other items not included in above line items
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Operating Margin (GAAP)
Year-Over-Year Basis Point Change
FY 2023 | Q4 Trend Drivers | ||||||||
Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | FY | |||||
Prior Year - GAAP | 2.9% | 1.7% | (0.6%) | 0.0% | 1.0% | ||||
COGS | Merchandise Cost1 | (85) | 5 | 140 | 50 | 30 | ↑ | Lower freight cost, higher allowances | |
↓ | Product cost inflation, unfavorable product mix | ||||||||
COGS | Occupancy | 40 | 15 | 0 | 45 | 25 | ↑ | Lower rent expense from impaired stores, 53rd week | |
COGS | Distribution | (20) | (5) | (15) | 10 | (10) | ↑ | Higher capitalized costs last year | |
COGS | Shrink | (60) | (45) | (70) | (55) | (60) | ↓ | Unfavorable inventory results | |
COGS | Markdowns | 30 | 0 | (35) | (130) | (35) | ↑ | Increased allowances, | |
↓ | Inventory markdown reserve for closing stores | ||||||||
SG&A | Payroll | (75) | (65) | (80) | (80) | (75) | ↓ | Store payroll investments | |
SG&A | Facilities | (10) | (40) | (40) | (30) | (30) | ↓ | Repair & maintenance investments | |
SG&A | Other2 | (80) | (5) | (40) | (6,930) | (1,875) | ↓ | Impairments, litigation charges, self-insurance true- | |
ups, D&A from incremental capex | |||||||||
Current Year - GAAP | 0.3% | 0.3% | (2.0%) | (71.2%) | (19.3%) | ||||
Variance vs. Last Year | -260 bps | -140 bps | -140 bps | -7,120 bps | -2,030 bps |
Note: All figures rounded to nearest 5 bps | 1Includes Freight (Import, Inbound, and Outbound) | 2Includes other items not included in above line items
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Disclaimer
Dollar Tree Inc. published this content on 13 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 March 2024 14:08:03 UTC.