Oddo maintains its neutral rating on Korian shares, with a price target reduced from €14 to €9.

After a year 2022 marked by inflation, Korian has guided for 2023 growth of at least 8% organic, including ~4% price effect, a guidance that comes in below consensus. The market was rather surprised by the scale of the decline", says Oddo.

In 2023, capital expenditure will be close to 500 ME, compared with nearly 830 ME in 2022, says the analyst, who indicates that he has adjusted his 2023-2024 projections to take account of the guidance.

Oddo also indicates that the Group's refinancing remains a point of uncertainty for the market, with refinancing of around 900 ME planned for 2023. We fear a slight loss of real estate value or a slight increase in the cost of financing, rather than blockages or serious difficulties in refinancing (unlike Orpéa)", says Oddo.

According to the analyst, "the configuration at the start of the year still appears to be full of opposing elements. Given the 2023 margin and cash profile, we believe that the timing will not be opportune before the end of 2023'.

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