CHINA VANKE CO., LTD. |
End-of-day quote
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 6.87 CNY | +4.89% |
|
+2.54% | -34.32% |
| Apr. 22 | Nomura Adjusts Ping An Bank’s Price Target to 12.58 Yuan From 12.16 Yuan, Keeps at Buy | MT |
| Apr. 17 | China Vanke seeks to offload stake in logistics operator GLP, Bloomberg reports | RE |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 359,826 | 321,735 | 220,246 | 202,298 | 115,413 | 74,801 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 453,608 | 387,691 | 340,581 | 382,735 | 339,225 | 275,029 | 247,075 | 236,866 |
| P/E ratio | 9.27 x | 7.93 x | 10.2 x | 9.33 x | 10.2 x | 8.06 x | 7.21 x | 7.95 x |
| Yield | 3.25% | 4.36% | 4.91% | 3.74% | - | 1.95% | 2.57% | 1.77% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 0.98 x | 0.77 x | 0.49 x | 0.4 x | 0.25 x | 0.2 x | 0.2 x | 0.22 x |
| EV / Revenue | 1.23 x | 0.93 x | 0.75 x | 0.76 x | 0.73 x | 0.73 x | 0.67 x | 0.69 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.16 x | 3.53 x | 5.87 x | 6.49 x | 9.42 x | 7.01 x | 5.98 x | 6.28 x |
| EV / FCF | 11.5 x | 8.42 x | -63.1 x | -38.3 x | -83.2 x | 7.61 x | 7.39 x | -60.1 x |
| FCF Yield | 8.72% | 11.9% | -1.59% | -2.61% | -1.2% | 13.1% | 13.5% | -1.66% |
| Price to Book | 1.93 x | 1.49 x | 0.97 x | 0.87 x | 0.49 x | 0.31 x | 0.3 x | 0.29 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 11,302,143 | 11,617,732 | 11,625,383 | 11,557,753 | 11,857,753 | 11,857,753 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 32.18 | 28.70 | 19.76 | 18.20 | 10.46 | 6.870 | 6.870 | 6.870 |
| Announcement Date | 3/17/20 | 3/30/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/30/23 | 3/28/24 | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 367,894 | 419,112 | 452,798 | 503,838 | 465,739 | 376,966 | 366,133 | 340,815 |
| EBITDA 1 | 87,921 | 109,758 | 58,013 | 58,951 | 36,015 | 43,746 | 41,337 | 40,815 |
| EBIT 1 | 76,613 | 79,959 | 52,531 | 52,007 | 29,252 | 26,833 | 29,772 | 26,108 |
| Operating Margin | 20.82% | 19.08% | 11.6% | 10.32% | 6.28% | 7.12% | 8.13% | 7.66% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 106,116 | 79,676 | 52,223 | 52,386 | 29,805 | 25,933 | 29,844 | 26,970 |
| Net income 1 | 38,872 | 41,516 | 22,524 | 22,618 | 12,163 | 10,798 | 12,200 | 11,793 |
| Net margin | 10.57% | 9.91% | 4.97% | 4.49% | 2.61% | 2.86% | 3.33% | 3.46% |
| EPS 2 | 3.470 | 3.620 | 1.940 | 1.950 | 1.030 | 0.8520 | 0.9528 | 0.8642 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 39,539 | 46,042 | -5,401 | -9,998 | -4,077 | 36,150 | 33,448 | -3,939 |
| FCF margin | 10.75% | 10.99% | -1.19% | -1.98% | -0.88% | 9.59% | 9.14% | -1.16% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 44.97% | 41.95% | - | - | - | 82.64% | 80.91% | - |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 101.71% | 110.9% | - | - | - | 334.78% | 274.15% | - |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 1.045 | 1.250 | 0.9700 | 0.6800 | - | 0.1340 | 0.1765 | 0.1218 |
| Announcement Date | 3/17/20 | 3/30/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/30/23 | 3/28/24 | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 S2 | 2020 S1 | 2020 S2 | 2021 S1 | 2021 Q3 | 2021 Q4 | 2021 S2 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 S1 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2022 S2 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 S1 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2023 S2 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 S1 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2024 S2 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 S1 | 2025 S2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 228,574 | 146,350 | 272,762 | 167,111 | 104,375 | 181,312 | 285,687 | 62,667 | 144,249 | 206,916 | 130,757 | 166,165 | 296,922 | 68,474 | 132,419 | 200,893 | 89,416 | 175,431 | 264,846 | 60,271 | 90,715 | 193,072 | 53,592 | 180,662 | 262,854 | 52,069 | 149,631 | 224,447 |
| EBITDA 1 | - | - | - | - | 12,155 | 19,395 | - | 5,608 | 20,243 | - | 14,604 | 18,497 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4,761 | 9,522 | - | 3,717 | 11,150 | - | 4,493 | - | - |
| EBIT 1 | - | - | - | - | 10,948 | 19,596 | 30,543 | 3,970 | 20,268 | 30,598 | 13,209 | 14,560 | - | 4,091 | 16,244 | 27,824 | 7,877 | 1,039 | - | 3,278 | 6,556 | 20,053 | 2,559 | 7,676 | 27,784 | 3,010 | - | - |
| Operating Margin | - | - | - | - | 10.49% | 10.81% | 10.69% | 6.33% | 14.05% | 14.79% | 10.1% | 8.76% | - | 5.97% | 12.27% | 13.85% | 8.81% | 0.59% | - | 5.44% | 7.23% | 10.39% | 4.77% | 4.25% | 10.57% | 5.78% | - | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net income | - | 12,508 | 29,008 | - | 5,642 | 5,835 | - | 1,429 | 10,794 | - | 4,828 | 5,567 | - | 1,446 | 8,425 | - | 3,751 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net margin | - | 8.55% | 10.63% | - | 5.41% | 3.22% | - | 2.28% | 7.48% | - | 3.69% | 3.35% | - | 2.11% | 6.36% | - | 4.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS 2 | - | - | - | - | 0.4900 | 0.5000 | - | 0.1229 | 0.9300 | - | 0.4178 | 0.4800 | - | 0.1251 | 0.7100 | - | 0.3200 | -0.1300 | - | 0.1089 | 0.1428 | - | 0.1015 | 0.3584 | - | 0.0582 | - | - |
| Dividend per Share 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9700 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.6800 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Announcement Date | 3/17/20 | 8/27/20 | 3/30/21 | 8/29/21 | 10/28/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/30/22 | 4/28/22 | 8/30/22 | 8/30/22 | 10/28/22 | 3/30/23 | 3/30/23 | 4/28/23 | 8/30/23 | 8/30/23 | 10/27/23 | 3/28/24 | 3/28/24 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 93,782 | 65,956 | 120,335 | 180,437 | 223,812 | 206,920 | 172,274 | 165,702 |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 1.067 x | 0.6009 x | 2.074 x | 3.061 x | 6.214 x | 4.73 x | 4.168 x | 4.06 x |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 39,539 | 46,042 | -5,401 | -9,998 | -4,077 | 36,150 | 33,448 | -3,939 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 22.5% | 20.1% | 9.78% | 9.48% | 4.91% | 3.91% | 4.26% | 3.66% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 2.39% | 2.31% | 1.18% | 1.22% | 0.75% | 0.82% | 0.89% | 0.82% |
| Assets 1 | 1,629,174 | 1,799,547 | 1,903,976 | 1,847,858 | 1,631,327 | 1,315,119 | 1,378,378 | 1,442,540 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 16.60 | 19.30 | 20.30 | 21.00 | 21.20 | 21.80 | 22.90 | 23.30 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 4.040 | 4.580 | 0.3500 | 0.2400 | 0.3300 | 0.9700 | 1.040 | 1.030 |
| Capex 1 | 6,148 | 7,146 | 9,514 | 12,749 | 7,989 | 1,079 | 8,684 | 6,098 |
| Capex / Sales | 1.67% | 1.71% | 2.1% | 2.53% | 1.72% | 0.29% | 2.37% | 1.79% |
| Announcement Date | 3/17/20 | 3/30/21 | 3/30/22 | 3/30/23 | 3/28/24 | - | - | - |
1CNY in Million2CNY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B+
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
27
Last Close Price
6.87
CNY
Average target price
9.011
CNY
Spread / Average Target
+31.17%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| -34.32% | 10.32B | |
| +9.02% | 10.79B | |
| -28.99% | 7.2B | |
| -5.56% | 7.01B | |
| -0.34% | 6.53B | |
| -3.03% | 6.09B | |
| -5.92% | 3.54B | |
| +12.96% | 3.57B | |
| +27.36% | 3.32B | |
| +13.70% | 2.83B |
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