MUNICH (dpa-AFX) - Cities around the world must prepare for a permanent absence of many office workers. According to regular surveys by the Munich-based Ifo Institute, a good quarter of employees in Germany continue to work at home even after the end of the Corona pandemic; in some international metropolises, the proportion of home workers is even higher, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. This has consequences for the office real estate market: in Germany, new office leases plummeted by 40 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year, according to real estate services provider Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).

"The home office ratio has been stable at 25 percent of employees for the past year," says Simon Krause, home office expert at the Munich-based Ifo Institute. "We expect it to stay that way." Before the pandemic, he says, it was only 10 percent. "The consequence is that the number of offices vacant because of home offices has tripled. In some industries, that's about 30 to 35 percent of offices every day."

Unused office space is expensive; in uncertain economic times, many companies choose to downsize. Some converted vacant offices into shared spaces - for more face-to-face interaction on present days, says economist Krause. Others reduced their space requirements through desk sharing, for example, where several employees share a desk. "This effect is hitting the office market. But it doesn't happen immediately, but with a delay, because many companies have long-term leases."

One example: the Dax corporation Fresenius. The Bad Homburg-based company is renovating its headquarters. According to a spokeswoman, about 40 to 50 percent of the Bad Homburg workforce works in the office every day. The company has therefore "rented out" several small office spaces in the city and is bringing employees back to the headquarters. There, 1800 employees share 1100 PC workstations. In Munich, the Allianz insurance group has given up a large location in the Neuperlach district, to name just two examples.

One consequence of home office work is that an increasing number of companies now have fewer office workstations than employees. If the workforce one day wanted to work entirely in the company again, there would be disputes over desks.

The trend toward the shrinking office is likely to continue. The McKinsey Global Institute - part of the global management consultancy - has studied the office market in nine leading economic metropolises. The authors of the study estimate that demand for office space will fall in seven of the nine cities by 2030 - by 16 percent in Munich, by 14 percent in Shanghai and by as much as 20 percent in San Francisco.

The consequences will by no means only affect landlords, who were able to charge towering rents in the centers of major cities until the onset of the Corona pandemic. According to the Ifo Institute's analyses, some retail sales have shifted from the centers to the outskirts and suburbs.

Half-empty offices should also give mayors pause for thought, according to Ifo. "Municipalities need to consider how they can further develop city centers so that they offer an attractive mix of living, working, shopping and leisure," Krause says.

In the decades following World War II, downtowns in many major cities depopulated as their residents made way for offices. In Germany, at least the stores have been preserved in the centers. In the U.S., many "business districts" resemble deserted ghost towns after work and on weekends.

One option for preserving vibrant inner cities would be the return of a number of residents, albeit probably a rather modest number. McKinsey projects that, with the exception of Paris, inner-city housing demand will increase everywhere in the nine metropolitan areas by 2030.

Companies need to plan very carefully when downsizing their offices. HR departments face a difficult task: Many employees prefer to work at home. But when they do show up at the office, they would like to be looked after there by their employer in a pleasant environment with attractive working conditions.

"The quality of the office is becoming more and more important," says Stephan Kippes, the market researcher for the real estate association Deutschlad Süd. "If I want to have good people, I have to offer them something." According to Kippes, well-equipped offices are an important factor in retaining rare and sought-after workers in times of rising skilled labor jagels. "This gives a company the best chance of getting people to come back to the office and not switch again straight away."/cho/DP/stk