By Giulia Petroni


A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Feb. 5-9 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.


GRAINS & OILSEEDS:

The macroenvironment has turned more bearish after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday lifted the dollar, pushing commodity and energy markets lower. The next big catalyst at a macro level will be CPI inflation data on Feb. 13, according to analysts.

This week, traders are set to closely watch data from the U.S. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report due on Thursday. But the focus will then quickly shift to the Agriculture Department's annual agricultural outlook forum on Feb. 15-16, which will show a first look at 2024-25 balance sheets, according to Peak Trading Research.

South American weather looks mixed ahead of important weeks for soybean harvesting in Brazil and production in Argentina. "Brazilian forecasts show scattered showers, good for harvesting beans," analysts at the research firm said in a note. "Argentina is hot and dry, but extended forecasts show that rains will arrive next weekend."

Meanwhile, attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to be bearish for grain and oilseeds futures, as producers from the U.S. and Europe are forced to lower prices to compensate for higher freight costs, according to Rabobank analysts.

"2024 kicked off with a pronounced divergence between soft commodities, which averaged a 10% increase, and G&O [grains and oilseeds] markets, which declined an average of 3.5%," they said in a note.

Chicago wheat futures are 0.8% lower at $5.95 a bushel on Monday, while corn is down 0.4% at $4.41 a bushel. Soybeans prices are down 0.5% at $11.83 a bushel.


SOFT COMMODITIES:

Traders are focusing on weather conditions in West Africa, Brazilian exports and trade tensions in the Red Sea, which analysts said have proven to be broadly bullish for the soft commodities complex, particularly for cocoa and robusta coffee.

Cocoa futures prices continue to trade significantly higher on persistent concerns over supply due to adverse weather conditions in West Africa, and are expected to continue facing upward pressure in the coming months, according to market watchers.

Robust export volumes from Brazil have capped further increases in sugar prices, BMI analysts said in a note, but Brazilian sugar exports are expected to face some constraints from March through September, exposing prices to shifts.

Cocoa is up 2.2% at $5,119 a metric ton, while sugar is 0.5% lower at $0.24 a pound on Monday. Coffee is down 1.2% at $1.90 a pound.


Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-05-24 1018ET