OPENING CALL
Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday as traders eyed important economic data later in the week.
"U.S. markets paused for breath after a strong run powered by a largely successful earnings season and renewed excitement over the potential of AI, which has driven the main indices to hover around record highs," Interactive Investor said.
The cautious tone also comes as investors eye economic data in coming sessions that may clarify the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
"The ongoing rates debate continues into the new week without significant resolution or change," SPI Asset Management said.
The PCE will be published before the market opens on Thursday, and any notable uptick in the gauge may finally kill off any lingering hopes of a Fed rate cut in May.
Premarket Movers
CarGurus reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter adjusted earnings and revenue but issued a fiscal first-quarter forecast that missed estimates. Shares fell 14%.
Coinbase Global was rising 5.3% after jumping 17% on Monday as Bitcoin rallied. Other crypto-related stocks traded higher. MicroStrategy rose 5.7% and Marathon Digital gained 8.7%.
Exxon Mobil said it could pre-emptively match the price that Chevron offered Hess for its stake in an oil prospect off Guyana's coast, potentially derailing the megadeal. Hess shares fell more than 3%.
Hims & Hers Health rose 18% after saying it expected fiscal-year revenue of $1.17 billion to $1.2 billion, higher than analysts' estimates of $1.11 billion.
Lowe's was rising 1.2% ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report. Analysts expect the retailer to post adjusted earnings of $1.68 a share on revenue of $18.5 billion. Same-store sales were projected to fall by 7%.
Unity Software fell 17% premarket after it reported a larger-than-expected quarterly loss.
Workday was down almost 8%. It topped quarterly profit expectations and met revenue forecasts Monday, but stuck to its guidance for fiscal 2025 growth.
Zoom Video Communications rose about 11% in premarket trading after it forecast higher-than-expected adjusted profit for this year.
Watch For:
Durable Goods for January; S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Prices Index for December; Earnings from Bank of Montreal, Lowe's, American Tower, AutoZone, Agilent Technologies, eBay, First Solar, J.M. Smucker, Klaviyo, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- Bitcoin ETFs Are Off to a Roaring Start. Are Other Crypto Funds Next?
- Why We Risk a Cartoon Version of Capitalism
- Hotel Staff Shortages Threaten to Push Travel Costs Even Higher
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
A significant increase in the PCE index could prompt the Fed to further undermine markets' expectations for an interest-rate cut, potentially strengthening the dollar, Exness said.
For the euro, individual country data then eurozone inflation data on Friday will be watched before next week's European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.
"As a result, the euro could strongly react to the eurozone, German and French inflation data releases," Exness said.
TD Securities expects the dollar to weaken through the second and third quarters as its own indicators suggest the global economy is accelerating.
"While data trends are strong, the critical ingredient for a global view is to compare the U.S./ROW [rest of the world]," TD said.
The Fed will eventually cut rates, while global financial conditions are also easing. China looks more stable and governments are spending in a key election year, he says. "This backdrop is risk positive and dollar negative."
Energy:
Oil prices rose in early trading on expectations of stronger spot crude purchases in China and a stronger physical market in the U.S.
China is suggested to have been buying crude cargoes at a higher pace since the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February, while also increasing orders from Saudi Arabia--potentially reflecting advance buying ahead of the maintenance work, when refiners typically reduce imports, ING said.
Separately, local Russian media suggested the country has approved a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1, though it doesn't apply to Eurasian Economic Union, Mongolia and Uzbekistan, and shouldn't particularly affect the global gasoline market, ING added.
BofA Securities said oil prices should stay anchored near term but oil demand should embark on a slower growth path into 2025 on structural energy transition changes to various sectors.
"Against a slowing global oil demand backdrop," annual non-OPEC supply growth should average 700,000 bbl/day over 2024-2029, compared with BofA Securities' expectation last year of 860,000 bbl/day over 2023-2028, and its average of 900,000 bbl/day over 2017-2022.
Metals:
Metal prices rose, with gold edging up as the dollar weakened and base metal supply beginning to break.
Gold has remained resilient despite recent Fed pushback on interest rate cuts, with the dollar slipping as investors start to turn their attention to the release of PCE inflation data.
Elsewhere, base metal supply was beginning to tighten, pulling bullish tipping points into clearer view, JPMorgan said.
"Eroding supply looks most significant for copper in the near-term, the base metal where we hold the strongest bullish conviction," JPM said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Disney's Head of Live-Action Movies to Step Down
Sean Bailey, who has overseen live-action movies for Disney's namesake studio since 2010, will step down.
Disney said Monday that Bailey would be succeeded by David Greenbaum, former co-president of Disney's Searchlight Pictures. Greenbaum would take on the new role of president of Disney live action and 20th Century Studios.
Expedia to Reduce Workforce by 9% Amid Transformational Efforts
Expedia is reducing its global head count by 1,500 employees, or roughly 9%, as part of its organizational and technological transformation.
The online travel company on Monday said it expects to book pretax charges and cash expenditures of $80 million to $100 million as a result of the cuts.
Fed is 'not out of woods' on inflation, new regional bank president says
The battle against rising prices is not over, one of the newest top Federal Reserve officials said Monday.
"When it comes to too-high inflation, I believe we are not out of the woods yet," Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said in his first public speech since joining the central bank six months ago.
Nikki Haley Is Defiant Ahead of Expected Loss in Michigan Primary
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich.-Nikki Haley, facing another expected humiliation in Michigan's Republican primary on Tuesday, has a simple answer when asked why she is still campaigning for the GOP presidential nomination when former President Donald Trump appears to be the inevitable nominee.
"I'm doing what I think is right," she said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "I'm doing what I believe 70% of Americans want me to do."
Biden Says Israel Would Halt War During Ramadan if Hostages Released
President Biden said Israel has agreed to halt the war in Gaza during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan if Hamas releases hostages, adding pressure to negotiators who are racing to broker a cease-fire this week.
Israeli officials declined to comment on Biden's remarks, made during an appearance Monday on NBC's "Late Night With Seth Meyers." Earlier on Monday, Biden said fighting in Gaza could stop as early as the coming weekend, the most detailed timeline to date from the White House on a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.
As Israel Drives Out Hamas, Lawlessness Hampers Gaza Aid Efforts
TEL AVIV-Israel's drive to eliminate Hamas from power in Gaza is proving increasingly at odds with another objective it is under international pressure to pursue: ensuring delivery of humanitarian aid to Gazans struggling to find food and safety as the war in the south intensifies around them.
Blue-uniformed Gazan police vanished from the streets of southern Gaza earlier this month after as many as nine officers were killed in Israeli airstrikes, according to U.S. and United Nations officials.
Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings [4Q Unless Stated Otherwise]:
5N Plus
Bank of Montreal 1Q
Bnk of Nova Scotia 1Q
Element Flt Mgmnt
Ovintiv
Parkland
SSR Mining
Economic Events (ET):
Nothing scheduled
Stocks to Watch:
BTB Real Estate 4Q Rev C$31.9M
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Spartan Delta 4Q EPS C$0.64; 4Q Oil and Gas Sales C$85.8M
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Timbercreek Financial 4Q EPS C$0.18; Declare Special Dividend of C$0.0575 per Share
Expected Major Events for Tuesday
00:01/UK: Feb Shop Price Index
07:00/GER: Mar GfK consumer climate survey
07:45/FRA: Feb Consumer confidence survey
08:59/JPN: Dec Final Labour Survey - Earnings, Employment & Hours Worked
09:30/UK: Jan Capital issuance statistics
13:30/US: Jan Advance Report on Durable Goods
13:55/US: 02/24 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
14:00/US: 4Q U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
14:00/US: Dec U.S. Monthly House Price Index
14:00/US: Dec S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
15:00/US: Feb Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
15:00/US: Feb Consumer Confidence Index
18:00/US: Jan Money Stock Measures
21:30/US: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
23:50/JPN: Feb Provisional Trade Statistics for 1st 10 days of Month
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Tuesday
AES Corporation (AES) is expected to report $0.85 for 4Q.
AdaptHealth Corp (AHCO) is expected to report for 4Q.
American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP) is expected to report $1.36 for 4Q.
American Tower REIT (AMT) is expected to report $0.94 for 4Q.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc (APLS) is expected to report $-0.75 for 4Q.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Inc (ARQT) is expected to report for 4Q.
Bank of Montreal (BMO,BMO.T) is expected to report $2.20 for 1Q.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
02-27-24 0618ET
