It was a turbulent week for the financial markets, torn between rising inflation in the United States, which takes the prospect of a rate cut further away, and mixed quarterly results on both sides of the Atlantic. Volatility rose sharply, but in the end the indices held firm, with the tech giants once again reassuring the market. Although rates are widely expected to remain unchanged next week, the market will pay close attention to Jerome Powell's comments.
Weekly variations*
DOW JONES INDUST...
38239.66  +0.67%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
17718.30  +3.99%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
8139.83  +3.09%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
2337.39$  -2.05%
Chart GOLD
WTI
83.59$  +2.08%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
1.07$  +0.33%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
Gainers:
  • Darktrace (+28%): The British cybersecurity company has accepted a $5.32 billion takeover offer from US private equity firm Thoma Bravo, representing a 44% premium to the average share price over the last three months. 
  • Anglo American (+24%): The London-listed mining group this week received a $38.8 billion takeover offer from Australian giant BHP, which wanted to form the world's leading copper producer. The British group found the offer undervalued and unattractive to its shareholders, and ultimately rejected it. 
  • Vertiv (+20%): The US supplier of data center equipment is riding the AI fervor. It unveiled solid quarterly results that exceeded expectations, with sales up 8% and orders up 60%, driven by significant growth in all regions. As a result, the Group announced the launch of a share buyback program and raised its half-year and full-year forecasts. 
  • Nordic Semiconductor (+30%), ASM International (+18%), Infineon Technologies (+9%), STMicroelectronics (+7%): Drawn into negative territory last week by the poor performance of Taiwan's TSMC, European semiconductor players are taking their revenge. They were boosted by above-consensus results from Texas Instruments and one of them, ASM International. Norwegian company Nordic Semiconductor reported quarterly revenues down by half, but in line with forecasts. 
  • Hasbro (+18%): The gaming giant reported quarterly sales down (-24%), mainly due to the disposal of its eOne audiovisual content subsidiary and a decline in the consumer products segment, but ahead of expectations. The Group's cost-cutting program paid off, with a marked improvement in profitability and an operating margin of almost 20%. Buoyed by the performance of its other sales segments, the group confirmed its full-year forecasts.
  • Tesla (+16%): Tesla is not doing any better, with sales in freefall (down 9% in the first quarter) and problems piling up (malfunctions and vehicle recalls). But the automaker delighted the markets by promising to launch low-cost vehicles in 2025 to reverse the trend, by working on the efficiency of its production lines. That was all it took to put an end to the share's downward trend.  
  • First Citizens Bancshares (+15%): The US bank, which absorbed regional lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) after its collapse in early 2023, is reaping the benefits of this integration. It posted a better-than-expected quarterly profit, more than doubled its interest income and announced a reduction in net expenses. 
  • BeiGene (+15%): Good news for the US-listed Chinese oncology biotech. The European Commission has approved its drug tislelizumab as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer in three indications. The Group also confirmed the efficacy of its Brukinsa treatment, presenting new data at a medical event this week. 
  • Carrier Global Corporation (+12%): The heating, ventilation and air-conditioning specialist is doing well. Over the past quarter, sales gained 17%, adjusted operating profit 44% and EPS 19%. The market did not punish the slight downward revision of the group's annual sales forecasts ($26 billion versus $26.5 previously), which anticipate a reduction in demand against a backdrop of inflation. 
Losers:
  • Hertz (-22%): The car rental company continues to pay for the failure of its electric vehicle strategy. It reported timid sales growth for the quarter (+2%) and a larger-than-expected loss, exacerbated by higher fleet repair costs. It announced its intention to sell a further 10,000 electric vehicles, for a total of 300,000 this year. The stock has dropped 55% since January 1, and hit an all-time low this week. 
  • JetBlue (-20%): Bad news all around for the US airline. It reported a higher net loss and a 5.1% drop in operating revenues for the past quarter, and anticipates a decline in sales for the next quarter (between 6.5% and 10.5%) and for the full year. The Group is suffering from overcapacity in Latin America, and is therefore planning to cut routes in Colombia and Peru.
  • Old Dominion Freight line (-10.7%): Founded in 1934, Old Dominion Freight Line began as a modest family business and has grown to become one of the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) freight carriers in North America. The company reported revenue of $1.46 billion, which was below the analyst estimate for revenue of $1.47 billion.
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb (-9%): The pharmaceutical giant reported quarterly sales up 5%, ahead of expectations, but was unable to offset expenses linked to the acquisitions of Karuna Therapeutics, RayzeBio and Mirati Therapeutics, which resulted in a marked increase in marketing, sales and administration expenses. The Group has also significantly lowered its annual guidance for adjusted earnings per share, anticipating patent losses. 
  • Meta Platform (-8.5%): The tech giant dropped after its earnings report spooked investors. Despite beating earnings and revenue estimates, Meta Platforms raised its total spending guidance for 2024, causing its shares to fall by more than 15% in pre-market trading. Investors are wondering if the company's embarking on a costly, mismanaged AI program, similar to what happened with the Metaverse.
Chart Commodities
Commodities
  • Rates. It's been a bit of a rude awakening. Over the past two weeks, indices, particularly in the US, have begun to consolidate some of the gains made since October 2023. The main reasons are well known: persistent inflation is blurring visibility on the first rate cuts. At some point, of course, the indexes got caught up. And recent data doesn't help matters. First-quarter inflation came in well above expectations at +3.7% vs. 3.4%, while GDP growth was limited to +1.6% vs. a forecast of 2.5%. It's only a short step from there to rekindling fears of stagflation. The seasonally-adjusted PCE Core index for March was even more so: it came in at +2.7%, compared with +2.6% expected and 2.50% in February. Not enough to cheer investors up. Even so, bond yields fell back slightly after the statistic, having reached 4.73%. However, it will take more than this to reverse the trend, which remains well oriented in the short term above 4.43%.
  • Crypto. Fourth consecutive week of decline for bitcoin (BTC), which is unable to find its way back to the all-time highs reached last March at $73,800. The price of the digital currency is just above the $64,000 mark, down 1.6% since the start of the week. The euphoric effect of the launch of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the United States is waning, with fewer and fewer net inflows into the funds offering these stock market products in the US. Ether (ETH) is following the same trend, down 0.75% since Monday. For the time being, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is rejecting all applications from funds to market an Ethereum Spot ETF, much to the despair of aficionados of the second most highly-valued cryptocurrency on the market. 
Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics
  • Energy: Oil recorded a small weekly gain this week, returning to the upside after two weeks of decline. Operators are coming to terms with geopolitical tensions and believe that the recent events between Iran and Israel are over. Other catalysts are taking over, notably the Fed's monetary policy. The threat of higher interest rates for a long time to come weighs on oil. Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data, the PCE index, in line with economists' expectations, alleviates this danger somewhat. In terms of prices, Brent crude is trading higher at around 88.50 USD, while WTI is trading at around 84 USD.
  • Metals: Copper remains on an uptrend in London, where it is trading at around 9865 USD (spot price). This strong momentum is due partly to the weakening of the greenback, and partly to a less rosy outlook for supply. Chile, a heavyweight in copper production, has revised downwards its outlook for production growth this year. Its national production is expected to reach 5.51 million tonnes, compared with the previous estimate of 5.63 million tonnes. Anglo American rejected a takeover bid from rival BHP Group, a failed attempt at sector concentration. In precious metals, the ounce of gold caught its breath and lost ground at USD 2,340.
  • Agricultural products: The price of wheat rebounded in Chicago from 570 to 640 USD in one week (for the July 2024 contract). The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is rather mixed for this crop, pointing to both a slowdown in US wheat exports and a deterioration in crop conditions. Corn was also up, but by a more modest 450 cents per bushel. 
Historical Chart
An important test for the Fed
The pivotal week between April and May will be marked by a few public holidays here and there, and by a series of clues designed to unravel the mystery of monetary policy. The first estimate of European inflation for April will be available on Tuesday. In the United States, the March unemployment rate will be announced on Friday, but it's the Fed's decision on Wednesday that will attract all the attention. The US central bank will not change its rates, but its comments will undoubtedly be among the most important of the year, given investors' current fears about monetary policy. The publication agenda will continue to be copiously packed with Apple, Amazon, Eli Lilly, AMD, Coca-Cola, McDonald's and Pfizer in the USA. And Novo Nordisk, HSBC, AXA, Stellantis, GSK and Shell in Europe. Wishing you a great weekend.
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.