A wait-and-see session on the US and Eurozone bond markets, as we await the press release summarizing the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions (to be released at 7pm).
The yield on US 10-year Treasuries fell by a symbolic -1Pt to 4.275%.
Yields on German Bunds of the same maturity and on our OATs eased by -1.5Pt to 2.434% and 2.8730% respectively, while Italian BTPs were perfectly unchanged (at 3.707%).
British Gilts were similarly stable, hovering around 4.0600%.

Market operators will be closely scrutinizing the Washington-based institution's announcements in search of precise clues as to the timetable for the next round of monetary easing.... which would at best occur in June (consensus just over 60% according to the CME Group's FedWatch barometer).

Investors will be paying particular attention to new forecasts on the evolution of rates, the so-called "dot plots", with the risk that expectations of the next rate cut will once again be postponed.

The median scenario should still point to three rate cuts in 2024, but only just," warn Bank of America strategists.
And for Goldman Sachs, 3 rate cuts is the central scenario for 2024.

Many analysts believe that the Fed is being forced into inaction by the resilience of the US economy, accompanied by a reawakening of inflation.

Both the Fed and the ECB would like to see further disinflation before they start cutting rates", says Amaury d'Orsay, Head of Bond Markets at Amundi.

Given the recent trend in underlying services inflation in the US, it makes sense for them to be patient", continues the manager.

Christine Lagarde, for her part, said on Wednesday that the main risk now would be to start cutting rates too late.

On the market

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