Ford Motor jumped 6% in premarket trading after posting strong results and announcing more dividends. Despite strikes, a $1.7 billion exceptional charge on its pension plan, mounting losses on its electric ranges and the price war launched by Tesla, consolidated sales are up 11% and cash generation is much improved compared with 2022.

Ford's free cash flow reached $7 billion, compared with zero the previous year. Management anticipates a similar year in 2024: even if this is only half-heartedly stated, we understand that it intends to reduce its ambitions in the electric segment; in this segment, its operating loss reached $4.7 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, Snap dropped 30% following the publication of quarterly sales that fell short of forecasts. The social network also indicated that it would focus this year on growing the number of its users by investing in the markets where it earns the most money, notably North America and Europe.

Among major corporate results also due today are Alibaba, CVS Health, Fox Corp and Uber Technologies. According to LSEG, half of S&P 500 companies have posted their results and 81% have exceeded estimates.

What is striking about this year's results, or at least what strikes me, is the wide disparity in performance within the same sector. In US agrochemicals, Corteva soared on solid prospects, shortly before its rival FMC Corporation collapsed for the opposite reason. Even tech, which often speaks with one voice, is finding it hard to agree: Amazon, Nvidia and Meta Platforms showed their muscles, while Apple and Alphabet disappointed.

Yesterday, indices went in all directions. the Dow Jones rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. All this while the MSCI China index soared by 4.7%, Paris gained 0.7% and Zurich lost 0.3%.

Corporate results will continue to shape the charts for the next fortnight or so. But the markets' two other favorite adjustment variables, US monetary policy and the Chinese market are never far away. Two members of the Federal Reserve had their say yesterday. Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester explained that the central bank will "probably" gain confidence with a view to cutting interest rates "later this year". His colleague at the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, acknowledged the reduction in inflation, but felt that a rate cut would require confirmation. When we replace humans with AI machines, which might not take too long, I reckon we should start with central bankers. But joke aside, this double outing did have a small effect on the market, with a slight easing in US bond yields. Overall, the two central bankers didn't have much influence on the market, which is still aiming for a rate cut in May, while the Fed is trying to pretend that it will come later.

Let’s switch to China. Everyone's wondering if the recent stock market rise is just a dead cat bounce (a small rebound within a bearish trend) or something is really going to happen. We're going to need something concrete for the recovery scenario to take hold. Bloomberg published a good article last night on the transfer of international capital, notably American, from China to India, presented as the new Eldorado. Partly because it's true, and partly because fleeing China doesn't seem such a bad idea. Even the very conservative Japanese investors are beginning to expose themselves to India. The movement didn't start last week, as financiers had long been sniffing out the good news. The Indian market is not particularly cheap: SENSEX shares are paying on average 20 times expected earnings this year. That's barely less than the US market (the Russell 3000 is trading at around 23 times). And considerably higher than in Europe, where, according to my friends at AlphaValue, 600 large companies are paying around 13.7 times.

Today's economic highlights:

Industrial production in Germany and US DOE crude oil inventories are on the agenda. 

The dollar is worth EUR 0.9283 and GBP 0.7912. The ounce of gold rises to USD 2035. Oil is little changed, with North Sea Brent at USD 78.97 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 73.90. The yield on 10-year US debt falls to 4.08%. Bitcoin trades at USD 43,200.

In corporate news:

  • Amgen on Tuesday reported a 15% jump in adjusted earnings and a 20% rise in sales for the fourth quarter, following the biotech company's October acquisition of rare disease drugmaker Horizon Therapeutics. However, the share price is down 1.6% in pre-market trading, with Leerink Partners having lowered its recommendation from "outperform" to "market perform".
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill gains 2.7% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and sales.
  • VF Corp falls 9.6% in pre-market trading after announcing the departure of its CFO Matt Puckett. The manufacturer of Vans sneakers and The North Face clothing also reported that it had missed consensus on its quarterly results due to weak demand.
  • Hilton Worldwide fell by 3.8% in pre-market trading, as the hotel group forecast a lower-than-expected full-year profit due to signs of a slowdown in demand for leisure travel in the US.
  • Uber Technologies on Wednesday forecast better-than-expected operating profit and gross bookings for the current quarter after reporting better-than-expected results for the October-December period, amid rising demand in its VTC and meal delivery businesses.
  • Target gains 2% in pre-market trading in response to a Bloomberg report that the retailer is considering a new loyalty program for its customers, similar to those of AMAZON and WALMART.
  • Boeing will review the preliminary results of the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) investigation into the ALASKA AIRLINES 737 MAX 9 incident and decide whether to take further action regarding the problem with the aircraft's door, a U.S. aircraft manufacturer official said Tuesday evening.
  • Fox Corp, Walt Disney’s ESPN, and Warner Bros Discovery announced on Tuesday evening their intention to create a sports streaming service in the autumn, designed to appeal to younger viewers who are turning away from conventional television. In pre-market trading, Disney shares were down 1.3%, while Warner Bros Discovery lost 2.8%.
  • Gilead Sciences - The drugmaker dropped 1.9% in after-hours trading due to adjusted quarterly earnings below Wall Street forecasts.
  • Cognizant Technology Solutions plunges 8.7% in the pre-market after announcing a sales forecast for this year below analysts' consensus.
  • Cirrus Logic - The chipmaker jumps 8.7% in after-hours trading on the back of better-than-expected quarterly results.
  • Freeport-McMoran - On Tuesday, the copper mining group announced the promotion of Kathleen Quirk to Chief Executive Officer, effective June, replacing Richard Adkerson, who will remain Chairman of the Board.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Advanced Micro Devices: Huatai Research maintains buy recommendation with target price raised from USD 150 to USD 226.
  • Aptiv: Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from equal weight with price target reduced from USD 90 to USD 74.
  • Canadian TIRE: Canaccord Genuity downgrades to hold from buy with price target reduced from CAD 167 to CAD 154.
  • Caterpillar: HSBC maintains hold recommendation with price target raised from USD 250 to USD 330.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains overweight recommendation with target price raised from USD 2250 to USD 2750.
  • Citizens Financial Group: Morgan Stanley maintains market weight recommendation with target price raised from USD 31 to USD 39.
  • Close Brothers Group: Peel Hunt maintains hold recommendation with price target reduced from 785 to GBX 518.
  • Diversified Energy Company: Dowgate Capital maintains buy recommendation with target price raised from GBX 160 to GBX 2600.
  • Dow: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from outperform with price target reduced from USD 57.90 to USD 55.90.
  • Edwards Lifesciences: Wolfe Research maintains underperform recommendation with target price raised from USD 57 to USD 72. Deutsche Bank maintains hold recommendation with price target raised from USD 64 to USD 86.
  • Eli Lilly And Company: BMO Capital Markets maintains outperform rating with target price raised from USD 710 to USD 865.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp: Morgan Stanley maintains market weight recommendation with target price raised from USD 29 to USD 36.
  • FMC Corporation: BNP Paribas Exane downgrades to neutral from outperform with price target reduced from USD 74 to USD 56.
  • Fortinet: HSBC downgrades to reduce from hold with price target raised from USD 49 to USD 57. Deutsche Bank maintains hold recommendation with target price raised from USD 63 to USD 78.
  • General Electric Company: Morningstar upgrades to buy from hold with price target raised from USD 128 to USD 154.
  • Huntington Bancshares Incorporated: Morgan Stanley maintains overweight rating with target price raised from USD 13 to USD 16.
  • Intel Corporation: Baptista Research maintains underperform recommendation with target price raised from USD 36.10 to USD 44.60.
  • Kla Corporation: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with price target raised from USD 514 to USD 633.60.
  • Marsh & Mclennan Companies: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with price target raised from USD 199 to USD 203.
  • Meta Platforms: Phillip Securities upgrades to accumulate from buy with price target raised from USD 375 to USD 520.
  • Micron Technology: Haitong International Research Ltd downgrades to neutral from outperform with target price of USD 92.
  • Molten Ventures Vct: CIBC Capital Markets downgrades to neutral from outperform with price target reduced from CAD 38 to CAD 30.
  • Nvidia Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains overweight rating with target price raised from USD 603 to USD 750.
  • Quest Diagnostics Incorporated: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with price target raised from USD 140 to USD 155.
  • Renishaw: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and raises target price from GBX 4000 to GBX 4250. Barclays maintains underweight recommendation with target price raised from GBP 29.20 to GBP 35.10.
  • Ross Stores: Piper Sandler & Co maintains neutral recommendation with price target raised from USD 112 to USD 145.
  • Shopify: CIBC Capital Markets maintains outperform rating and raises target price from USD 82 to USD 100.
  • Snap: Wells Fargo maintains overweight rating and reduces target price from USD 22 to USD 16. Jefferies maintains buy recommendation and reduces target price from USD 22 to USD 17. RBC Capital maintains sector perform recommendation and reduces target price from USD 17 to USD 13. Raymond James maintains outperform rating and reduces target price from USD 20 to USD 15.
  • Southwest Airlines: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from outperform with price target reduced from USD 29.10 to USD 28.70.
  • Spotify Technology: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to hold from sell with price target raised from USD 150 to USD 240. Redburn Atlantic maintains neutral recommendation with price target raised from 170 to USD 210. JP Morgan maintains overweight recommendation with target price raised from USD 220 to USD 280.
  • Steel Dynamics: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from outperform with price target reduced from USD 121.80 to USD 117.80.
  • Stryker Corporation: Canaccord Genuity downgrades to hold from buy with price target reduced from USD 360 to USD 315.
  • T-Mobile Us: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from outperform with price target raised from USD 173.30 to USD 183.20.
  • Union Pacific Corporation: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with price target raised from USD 220.30 to USD 257.40.
  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: Canaccord Genuity downgrades to hold from sell with price target reduced from USD 378 to USD 332.
  • West Pharmaceutical Services: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold with price target raised from USD 323 to USD 536.
  • Western Digital Corporation: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from underperform with price target raised from USD 45.50 to USD 65.30.