The NYSE is clearly in the euphoric zone of what professionals modestly call "overbought" territory. With February not having a very good reputation in the stock market (statistically, it was the second worst month after September in almost a century in the USA, with 46 declines for 50 rises), investors are on high alert on the upside... but still frantically buying Nvidia on the downside. They've even all but buried the woes of New York Community Bancorp, which finally bounced back yesterday.

We're at the climax of earnings releases on both sides of the Atlantic. Among the highlights yesterday were Walt Disney and ARM Holdings, which kept investors happy, while PayPal and Alibaba did not. In Europe, Societe Generale, Crédit Agricole and KBC swelled the ranks of banking earnings, alongside other iconic names in their sectors: L'Oréal, Unilever, AstraZeneca, Vinci and Siemens AG.

Investors are still focused on interest rate cuts, but less intensely than before. They still monitor data to get more cues, such as today’s job report from the Labor Department, which showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell a bit more than expected last week, highlighting the resilience of the job market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 9,000 to 218,000 for the week ended February 3, while 220,000 were expected in a Reuters consensus.

In other news, Nikki Haley was the only candidate in Nevada's Republican primary and still managed to finish second. Donald Trump had advised his supporters not to vote because his name was not on the ballot. So they overwhelmingly voted "none of the above" rather than Nikki Haley. This is humiliating, and strengthens the former US President's position ahead of a duel with Joe Biden in November.

While US markets are on a high, China’s are stuck in a rut. What to do when a country's financial markets keep falling? This is the question that China's leaders have been asking themselves for the past five years, but it's clear that they haven't yet found the right answer. So they're experimenting. After having multiplied the measures, heads are starting to roll. Yesterday, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission was sacked. Analysts say that this decision shows how concerned the authorities are about the situation.

Perhaps, in the end, the best way to prevent Chinese markets from falling is to close them temporarily. And that's just as well, because today's session is the last before the Lunar New Year festivities. In Shanghai, the stock market will be closed tomorrow, Friday, and throughout next week. Business resumes on Monday February 19. In Hong Kong, the blackout is shorter: only Monday 12 and Tuesday 13 are public holidays. Trading comes back on February 14.

The other way to get the Chinese markets moving again, which seems less risky to me, would be to do something for the country's economy. The pressure exerted by the United States to limit access to cutting-edge technologies and diversify subcontracting is weighing more heavily on China's dynamism than Beijing would have us believe. Bad macroeconomic statistics are piling up. Last night, China reported an annual price decline of -0.8% in January, the first time this has been seen in 15 years. It's a sign of an economy struggling to recover. And so far, the big stimulus package expected by the business community has been slow to materialize, if the leaders had planned to roll one out at all.

The fall in the yen and the support of technology stocks boosted the Nikkei 225, which returned to its best levels of the last two weeks, gaining 1.9%. Other Asia-Pacific indices were less buoyant. As expected, the RBI left its rate unchanged, but Indian financiers were hoping for some signals in favor of a more flexible policy in the future. But no such indication was visible in the communication, which was therefore perceived as firmer than expected. European leading indicators are bullish this morning, while futures are hovering around zero.

Today's economic highlights:

On the agenda today, weekly US employment data and US wholesale inventories.

The dollar is slightly up to EUR 0.9302 and GBP 0.7942. The ounce of gold is worth USD 2023. Oil rises slightly, with North Sea Brent at USD 80.34 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 74.96. The yield on 10-year US debt rises to 4.10%. Bitcoin trades at USD 45,000.

In corporate news:

  • Arm soars 22.4% in premarket trading after the company publishes full-year sales and earnings forecasts ahead of Wall Street expectations on the back of the artificial intelligence boom.
  • Walt Disney gains 6.1% in pre-market trading after its Board of Directors approves a $3 billion share buyback program for fiscal year 2024, relegating to the background the group's publication of quarterly sales slightly below analysts' expectations.
  • Mattel advanced by around 2% in after-hours trading, as the maker of the Barbie doll announced that it expects earnings of between $1.35 and $1.45 per share this year, against a consensus of $1.37 according to LSEG data. The group is also planning a $1 billion share buyback program.
  • Tapestry gained 2.9% in premarket trading, as the luxury group reported better-than-expected second-quarter sales on Thursday, with improved sales of its Coach handbags in North America offsetting weakness in its Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman brands.
  • Coty gains around 1% in after-hours trading after reporting solid quarterly sales amid strong demand for cosmetics.
  • Paypal fell by nearly 9% in pre-market trading, as the digital payments specialist anticipated flat growth in adjusted earnings this year, while investors were hopeful that the arrival of its new CEO Alex Chriss would result in a return to good momentum.
  • Under Armour climbs 9.1% after raising its annual profit forecast due to lower input costs.
  • News Corp - The media conglomerate on Wednesday beat Wall Street forecasts for quarterly sales thanks to growth in the Dow Jones division, digital services in real estate and a rebound in the book publishing division. The stock is up more than 3% in after-hours trading.
  • Apple - A federal judge in the United States on Wednesday dismissed a lawsuit accusing the group of overpaying its CEO, Tim Cook, and other executives due to a miscalculation of their compensation.
  • GoPro plunges 9% in after-hours trading after the group reports fourth-quarter sales below LSEG figures.
  • O'Reilly Automotive - The automotive equipment distributor announced on Wednesday that it expects to post a lower-than-expected annual profit on the back of higher spending, sending the stock down nearly 5% in after-hours trading.
  • Apollo Global Management is discussing with AlShaya the acquisition of a minority stake in the Starbucks franchise for the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia, operated by the Kuwaiti group, three sources close to the matter told Reuters.
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance announced on Wednesday that it had reduced its stake in pharmaceutical distributor Cencora for the third time in just over six months, raising approximately $992 million.
  • UnitedHealth- The health insurer announced Wednesday evening that its Chief Operating Officer, Dirk McMahon, would be retiring after more than 20 years with the company.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Doordash, Inc.: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform with a price target reduced from USD 124 to USD 118.
  • Fortinet, Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research downgrades to sell from hold with a price target raised from USD 55 to USD 60.
  • General Motors Company: Baptista Research upgrades to outperform from hold with a price target raised from USD 30.90 to USD 44.10.
  • Hca Healthcare, Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from outperform with a price target raised from USD 281.20 to USD 326.70.
  • Idex Corporation: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 215 to USD 265.
  • Microsoft Corporation: Baptista Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 370 to USD 505.
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral with a price target reduced from USD 272 to USD 212.
  • Nucor Corporation: Baptista Research downgrades to underperform from hold with a price target reduced from USD 185 to USD 178.20.
  • Pinterest, Inc.: D.A. Davidson drops coverage on the stock.
  • Roblox Corporation: Barclays upgrades to equalweight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 26 to USD 46. Goldman Sachs upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 35 to USD 48.
  • United Parcel Service Inc.: Baptista Research downgrades to hold from buy with a price target reduced from USD 194 to USD 157.90.
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.: Baptista Research maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 129 to USD 190.
  • Air Products & Chemicals, Inc.: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 290 to USD 230.
  • Arista Networks, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 300.
  • Caterpillar Inc.: D.A. Davidson maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 266 to USD 326.
  • Eli Lilly And Company: DZ Bank AG Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 639 to USD 790.
  • Emerson Electric Co.: Baird maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from USD 88 to USD 111.
  • Idex Corporation: Stifel upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 215 to USD 265.
  • Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.: Cowen maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 650 to USD 800. Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 570 to USD 770. 
  • Uber Technologies, Inc.: Punto Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 64.11 to USD 91.46. Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 63 to USD 86. 
  • Airtel Africa Plc: FBNQuest downgrades to underperform from neutral with a target price of NGN 1836.
  • Barratt Developments Plc: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price raised from 5.71 to GBP 6.15.
  • Beazley Plc: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from GBX 600 to GBX 615.
  • Lancashire Holdings Limited: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold with a price target reduced from GBP 7.60 to GBP 7.50.
  • Redrow Plc: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy with a target price reduced from GBX 774 to GBX 721.
  • Watches Of Switzerland Group Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from 10.35 to GBP 5.80. Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 700 to GBX 460.