BERLIN (dpa-AFX) - The association of gas storage operators considers a natural gas shortage possible in the coming winter of 2023/24 when temperatures are cold. This is the result of new modeling presented by the Initiative Energies Speichern (Ines) in Berlin on Wednesday. According to the study, in the scenario of a cold winter like 2010, gas storage facilities will be completely depleted as early as January 2024. "If cold temperatures occur, a consumption level characterized by current savings can therefore probably no longer be fully covered," said Ines Managing Director Sebastian Bleschke.

The consequence of a so-called gas shortage would be an "escalation of the price situation." Industrial gas consumption and power generation by gas would be "brought to their knees". However, the association does not see the heat supply to households in danger in such a case.

By way of comparison: at the end of January 2023, the filling level of German gas storage facilities was just under 79 percent, partly due to mild temperatures.

Gas supply security in Germany has not yet been restored, Bleschke emphasized. "For the winter, it is crucial to fill the gas storage facilities and greatly reduce consumption when it gets cold." According to the association, the calculations also included the new LNG terminals planned for the German coasts in the coming winter.

At normal temperatures, which the association bases on the European weather year 2016, full storage facilities are assumed for the beginning of September and remain full until the beginning of November. After that, according to the model, the fill levels drop significantly and even fall below the legal storage target of 40 percent at 33 percent at the beginning of February 2024. A fill level of 5 percent is then assumed at the end of April. By way of comparison, German storage facilities were a good 64 percent full in mid-April 2023.

The association has 14 members. According to its own information, they represent about 90 percent of German storage capacities and about 25 percent of gas storage capacities in the EU./tob/DP/jha