Agroliga : Tendencies of Ukrainian agrarian market in November. Harvest 2020.

Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.

Prices for Ukrainian wheat are growing despite the decline in demand from Turkey. As of November 23, 2021, the cost of offers of Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein FOB Berdyansk for delivery in the first half of December increased by $ 5 per ton against Friday, November 19 - to $ 327 per ton, while for protein 12.5% - increased by $ 7 per tonne to $ 332 per tonne. Exporters continued to report that CPT-based procurement prices were on the rise.

USDA analysts raised the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2021/22 MY to 24 million tons, which is 0.5 million tons more than the forecast volume a month earlier. Wheat quotes have returned to gains following the release of a new USDA report, supported by lower estimates of global supply and ending stocks this season.

Wheat prices in Ukraine reached their highest level since 2013, following the rise in world prices. It is noted that corn prices are also experiencing further growth due to logistics problems in the country. Grain markets skyrocketed after comments from Russia suggesting new export restrictions should global prices rise further.

World prices for vegetable oils rose due to demand and expensive oil. The average value of The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Vegetable Oil Price Index in October was 184.8 points, which is 16.3 points (9.6%) higher than in the previous month and is the highest indicator ever. Index. It is noted that this growth was due to an increase in prices for palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils.

In Ukraine, prices for sunflower and soybeans will continue to rise amid a decline in global soybean production in the United States. According to analysts, these trends have an impact on the rise in prices for the purchase of sunflower and sunflower oil in Ukraine. The price of sunflower with delivery to the plant increased to UAH 18.5-19.8 thousand per ton.

In Ukraine, prices for sunflower and soybeans will continue to rise amid a decline in global soybean production in the United States. According to analysts, these trends have an impact on the rise in prices for the purchase of sunflower and sunflower oil in Ukraine. The price of sunflower with delivery to the plant increased to UAH 18.5-19.8 thousand per ton.

Export prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil are at their highest levels since the beginning of the 2021/22 season (September-August), supported by a limited supply of sunflower seeds. According to the Refinitiv monitoring data, the prices for proposals of Ukrainian sunflower oil for deliveries in December are about $ 1420-1425 per ton FOB, export prices for sunflower oil on the CPT-port basis increased to $ 1400-1410 per ton for deliveries in November-December.

At the moment, the world corn market is in the focus of attention of all market participants, even despite the expected record grain production. According to USDA forecasts, world corn production will amount to 1.2 billion tons, which will be a new record. The previous maximum was recorded in 2016 - 1.13 billion tons. At the same time, USDA experts left the forecast for the corn crop for Ukraine in 2021/22 MY at the level of the forecast for October - 38 million tons. In addition, grain exports, according to analysts, will not change and amount to 31.5 million tons, and ending stocks will remain at the level of 0.91 million tons.

Most of the factors on the Ukrainian market have already been taken into account in the price of corn, so the November USDA release did not have a strong impact on it. On the eve of the November USDA, prices for Ukrainian corn with delivery in November-December were at $ 275 per ton FOB Nikolaev, while buyers named the level below $ 270 per ton.

Since the beginning of 2021/22 MY, as of November 24, grain exports from Ukraine reached 24.19 million tons. Since the beginning of the season, grain exports are 3.62 million tons or 17.6% higher than the result for the same period of the last marketing year (20, 6 million tons).

The marketing year 2021/2022 is drawing to a close. And we are ready to share with you its results for the GC Agroliga.

In the context of grain crops, we have threshed:

- winter wheat - 12,625.6 tons, with a yield of 5.5 t / ha (2020 - 16,788.04 tons, 2019 - 15461.73 tons);

- sunflower - 17045.9 tons, with a yield of 4.9 t / ha (2020 - 10515.7 tons, 2019 - 17850.64 tons);

- spring barley - 1500 tons, with a yield of 4.2 t / ha (2020 - 1571.35 tons, 2019 - 1414.2 tons);

- corn - 580 tons, with a yield of 6.5 t / ha (2019 - 643.42 tons).

The year passed without extreme conditions for the harvest, and the moderately humid autumn allowed us to return to sowing winter rapeseed, which thrives on mild and warm weather conditions. This year, as winter crops, only two crops have already been sown, which are guaranteed to be accepted in conditions of a lack of moisture - wheat and rapeseed.

With kind regards, team of GC "Agroliga".