Agroliga : Tendencies of Ukrainian agrarian market in November 2020.

Traditionally, representing to your attention a brief overview of the world and Ukrainian agrarian sector news.

At the very beginning of November, after reaching 4-year highs, export quotations for Ukrainian corn fell following the drop in world indicators. A 5.6% decline in stock quotes within 2 days after reaching a 15-month high put pressure on prices. On the domestic market, the number of offers for the sale of corn increased, while prices fell to $ 213-216 per tonne CPT-Odessa.

The USDA forecast for corn production in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY has been lowered by 8 million tons or 22% to 28.5 million tons (36.5 million tons in the October forecast). According to the USDA report, the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in 2020/21 MY is also downgraded by 8 million tons to 22.5 million tons against 30.5 million tons in the October forecast. The estimate of the ending stocks of corn in Ukraine in the indicated period remained unchanged at the level of 1.16 million tons.

The experts explained why wheat prices began to decline. Export quotations for Black Sea wheat fell following futures and world news about an escalation of the pandemic. It is noted that the decline in prices after a long period of growth contributed to the slowdown in trading activity. 'The traders surveyed believe that the rise in wheat prices may recover in the near future. The announced tenders confirm the still high demand for wheat, which will serve as support in the near future. The condition of winter wheat also supports the market, 'Refinitiv said.

Since the beginning of 2020/21 MY as of November 11, 2020, grain exports from Ukraine reached 17.65 million tons. Thus, 63% of the wheat volume has already been exported from Ukraine, according to the annex to the grain Memorandum (the maximum wheat export volume was 17, 5 million tons).

In the USA, the sown area of winter wheat increased for the first time in 8 years. American farmers have increased their winter wheat plantings this season for the first time in 8 years, as strong demand and dry weather in several producing countries drive up grain prices.

The sunflower seed harvest in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY was forecasted at the level of 14 million tons, which is 1 million tons less than the previous estimate. This is evidenced by the data of the USDA report for November. The production of sunflower meal in Ukraine, according to USDA forecasts, also decreased to 5.72 million tons, which is 413 thousand tons less than the previous estimate in October (6.133 million tons), sunflower oil - by 0.43 million tons to 5.96 million tons (previous forecast - 6.39 million tons).

In fact, sunflower harvesting was completed in Ukraine. Total sunflower threshed - 13 million tons from an area of 6.4 million hectares (100%) with an average yield of 2.05 t / ha.

Cereal prices in the Black Sea region tend to stabilize, while oilseed prices continue to rise. The press service of Agritel writes about this. 'So, over the past three months, prices for sunflower and soybeans have jumped by 55% in dollar terms. The sunflower market also receives support from vegetable oils, 'analysts said. According to the report, currently the price of FOB Odessa sunflower oil is approaching $ 1,100 per ton. Prices for sunflower cake also hold high positions. Analysts point out that competition between exporters and processors is contributing to a progressive increase in soybean prices. In addition, sunflower is traded at $ 630 per ton (including VAT) ex-works in southern Ukraine, and soybeans for export - at $ 525 per ton (excluding VAT).

According to the results of the 2020 harvesting campaign, the Ministry of Economy expects a grain harvest of 65 million tons. 'Grain harvesting is expected at 65 million tons. This is not a record figure, last year we had 75 million tons. But this crop is still in the TOP- 5 best indicators in the history of Ukraine. And this is enough to ensure domestic consumption, which is about 20-21 million tons', said Taras Vysotsky. As he specified, the rest of the volume will be exported to other countries.

Since the beginning of 2020/21 MY as of November 2020, grain exports from Ukraine reached 16.85 million tons. Export of grain this season is 2.79 million tons or 14% lower than the result for the same period of the last marketing year (19.64 million tons). As of the reporting date in the context of grain crops exported from Ukraine:

wheat - 10.75 million tons (8% lower than the same period in 2019/20 MY);

barley - 3.38 million tons (1% more);

rye - 1.7 thousand tons (66% lower);

corn - 2.65 million tons (40% lower).

In January-September 2020, Agroliga received € 3.19 million in net profit, which is 17.3% more compared to net profit in the same period last year (€ 2.72 million). According to the report, the company's revenue was € 57.94 million, which is 2.4 times more than in the first quarter of 2019 (€ 23.99 million). Gross profit in the reporting period increased 2.9 times to € 9.2 million (9 months of 2019 - € 3.22 million), operating - by 34% to € 7.84 million (9 months of 2019 - € 2.67 million).

With kind regards, team of GC 'Agroliga'.