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Soybeans Fall as Bearish WASDE Expected

08/07/2020 | 03:45pm

By Kirk Maltais

 

-- Soybeans for November delivery fell 1.2% to $8.67 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Friday with grain traders saying next Wednesday's WASDE report will include information that will bring a prolonged downturn to grains prices.

--Wheat for September delivery fell 1.2% to $4.95 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery fell 0.9% to $3.20 3/4 a bushel.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Brace for Impact: Grains traders anticipate the WASDE report will show elevated supply figures for U.S. crops. "Many analysts are expecting to see elevated yield numbers, especially on corn given recent growing conditions and crop reports," said Karl Setzer of AgriVisor. According to Setzer, traders are expecting corn yields to rise to 182 bushels per acre, while soybean yields rise to 52 bushels per acre.

New Low: Wheat closed at just above $4.95 per bushel, the lowest close of the most-active contract in a month. Wheat futures have shed 6% in the past five sessions, and although some grain traders say the market is overcompensating for reports of a larger-than-expected Russian wheat crop. "Wheat is extremely oversold on the current drop as global production ideas have risen," said Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives.

 

INSIGHTS

 

Defying Expectations: Chinese buyers have purchased an additional 456,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery in the 2020/21 marketing year, the USDA said Friday morning. News of the sale came as President Trump moves to limit the US operations of Chinese apps TikTok and WeChat - a move that is expected to further agitate Chinese officials. Prior to this sale being announced, grains traders were growing frustrated with the current pace of Chinese buying. "Chinese demand has slowed lately and with the good weather across most of the soybean belt, there is not a lot of news to boost prices," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage.

Sweaty Palms: Palm oil prices, which have rallied recently, are ripe for a correction, said Fitch Solutions. The market has now priced in increased import demand from India, and China has recovered so prices will likely ease as import demand in the second half of the year slows down, it adds. The Bursa Malaysia October palm oil contract is largely flat at MYR 2,766 a metric ton.

 

AHEAD:

 

--The USDA releases its weekly grain export inspections data at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA releases its weekly crop progress report for the 2020/21 crop at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA releases its weekly update on ethanol production and inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

--The USDA releases its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Wednesday.

 

Lucy Craymer contributed to this article.

 

Write to Kirk Maltai at kirk.maltais@wsj.com

 

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