By Kirk Maltais


-Wheat for March delivery rose 2.2% to $6.09 1/4 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, climbing in response to Egypt's re-emergence as a potential importer.

-Corn for March delivery rose 0.9% to $4.59 a bushel.

-Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.2% to $12.47 3/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Back on Board: The re-entry of Egypt into the world export market for wheat is giving CBOT wheat a boost--even if the chances of U.S. wheat winning some business is seen as slim to none. "Wheat is seemingly trading higher on the Egyptian wheat tender, although the U.S. will not get any of the business," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. On the website of the GASC, the state authority that buys exports for Egypt, the agency says it wants delivery in late February to early March and that it's looking for U.S. wheat--but deals often go to lower-priced suppliers like Russia.

Expecting Cuts: After trading off of Brazilian weather since late last year, traders are eagerly anticipating what tomorrow's Conab report will show regarding Brazilian crops. The report has been running below what the USDA has been estimating in its WASDE, but with both reports coming out this week, traders hope to be able to make quick work of comparing the two to determine the status of the Brazilian crop. The reaction to the upside may be strong if steep cuts are made, due to these futures already being oversold, said Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note.

Technical Pressure: Fund traders adding more short positions on CBOT soybeans was seen as the reason that those futures trailed behind corn and wheat today. "The soybean complex continues to be oversold--money managers continue to pour short positions into the soy complex," said Benjamin Hoff of Societe Generale in a note. The CFTC's Commitments of Traders report showed a similar move Friday, with managed money adding 15,583 short contracts while closing 813 longs--leaving soybeans net short roughly 11,600 contracts.


INSIGHT


Minimal Move: Small decreases are expected for crops grown in 2023 in a slate of reports later this week from the USDA, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. They're forecasting production and stockpiles to slightly shrink for both U.S. corn and soybeans, while U.S. wheat is expected to show lower winter wheat seedings this year, as well as slightly lower stocks. The USDA's January reports are usually seen as important for determining price discovery early in the New Year.

Mixed Message: Weather in wheat growing areas around the world is seen as a mixed bag. "On the one hand, the current cold snap in the Black Sea region is threatening the winter wheat crop there," said Commerzbank in a note, adding that this could affect Russia's wheat supply. "On the other hand, there has been good news from South America… the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the current wheat crop by around 3% to 15.1 million tons."


AHEAD


-The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.

-The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

-The USDA will release its monthly WASDE report at noon ET Friday.

-The USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks report at noon ET Friday.

-The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-09-24 1500ET