NEW YORK/LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Global stocks slipped and Treasury yields rose on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting reaffirmed expectations that the U.S. central bank won't cut interest rates anytime soon.
The minutes kept sentiment subdued as investors awaited highly anticipated results from Nvidia after the market's close. The chipmaker's results and outlook could hinder or further fuel this year's rally in AI-related stocks.
The bulk of Fed policymakers were concerned about the risks of cutting rates too soon, with broad uncertainty about how long borrowing costs should remain at their current level, minutes of the Jan. 30-31 session showed.
The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose 4.3 basis points to 4.655%, while MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.47%.
"I don't think the minutes really told us anything new. The markets have basically already done the Fed's work for them in terms of pricing out chances of a March rate cut and for a bunch of cuts down the road," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics in San Francisco.
Policymakers are concerned that the economy is going to limit further disinflationary trends, or at least has the potential to see progress on inflation stall out, she said.
"There's some very small risk of a hike that's been priced in just because of the hotter-than-expected inflation numbers" last week, Rupert said.
A slim majority of economists polled by Reuters now expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June, farther out than market expectations last month of a first cut in March.
Markets now expect 91.5 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed this year, closer to the U.S. central bank's own projection of 75 bps of easing - or half the 150 bps of cuts priced in by traders at the start of the year.
Stocks fell in Europe as shares in HSBC tumbled 8.4% in its biggest single-day decline since April 2020, after a shock $3 billion charge on its stake in a Chinese bank took the shine off record annual profit at the region's largest bank.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.17%.
But the day's focus is on Nvidia, whose shares have jumped 40% so far this year as of Tuesday's close.
If Nvidia only marginally meets or beats expectations the company will suffer dramatically as investors seek an excuse to pull back, at least in Big Tech, said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. "Nvidia is going to have to absolutely crush earnings and crush earnings expectations and probably deliver an above-expectations outlook for that stock to continue to move higher," he said.
"If Nvidia's report is lackluster and kicks off a decline in big tech or the overall S&P 500 by 5%-10%, I wouldn't change my outlook. That would be healthy for the market," Saglimbene said.
Nvidia is expected to post more than a threefold surge in fourth-quarter revenue on robust demand for its AI chips, which dominate the market.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.55%, the S&P 500 lost 0.56% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.07%.
The changing rates outlook has boosted the dollar and kept the yen, which is extremely sensitive to U.S. rates, near three-month lows.
The dollar index was flat, with the euro up 0.09% to $1.0813.
The Japanese yen weakened 0.15% to 150.21 per dollar.
Steps by Chinese authorities to prop up economic growth in the world's largest raw materials consumer revived doubts about the growth outlook, which weighed on crude oil and iron ore.
Chinese blue-chip stocks posted a 1.4% gain on the day , a day after the biggest reduction yet in the nation's benchmark mortgage rate as authorities stepped up efforts to support the property market.
Oil prices rose 1% as geopolitical tensions raged on in the Middle East and traders assessed signs of near-term supply tightness.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) rose 87 cents to settle at $77.91 a barrel, while Brent crude settled up 69 cents to $83.03 a barrel.
Iron ore futures declined for a third consecutive session on Wednesday to their lowest in nearly four months.
(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Amanda Cooper in London, Ankur Banerjee in Singapore and Anisha Sircar in Bangalore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Ros Russell, Barbara Lewis, William Maclean and Jonathan Oatis)
