As bond markets continue to plunge, interest rates are symmetrically trending towards new annual records.
All the figures published at 2:30 p.m. in the United States belied expectations and sent Wall Street and bond markets into a tailspin.

US GDP figures for the first quarter, published on Thursday by the US Department of Commerce, came out at the opposite end of the spectrum from the consensus: only +1.6% instead of the median estimate of +2.8%, Goldman Sachs having just raised its forecast to +3.2% (GDP coming out half as high).
But it gets worse: underlying PCE inflation is said to have reached 3.7%, against the 3.4% expected by analysts.

10-year yields jumped +5.5pts to 4.7100%, the highest since the end of November, while the 2-year yield, also +6.5pts, broke the 5% barrier at 5.002%, with the 30-year yielding +4pts to 4.822% (after a high of 4.845%).
In addition, jobless claims were lower than expected, at 207,000 versus 212,000 the previous week (vs. 215,000 expected).

And it's not just the USA that's disappointing, as this morning investors learned of a deterioration in business sentiment in France between March and April, with the INSEE synthetic indicator dropping one point to 99, and thus falling back to just below its long-term average (100).

This deterioration is the result of the less favorable economic situation in all sectors of activity, with the exception of retail trade. The manufacturing and services indices both fell by three points to 100.

Our OATs are not easing, however (+4pts to 3.134%, a level comparable to 11/27/2023), severely impacted by US rates. Bunds are no better, at +5pts to 2.635%, while Italian BTPs are +4pts to 4.00%.

Across the Channel, Gilts tightened +4pts to 4.409%, their worst performance since November 2, 2023.

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