Covid-19 and rural landscape: the case of Italy

Mauro Agnoletti, Simone Manganelli, Francesco Piras

Working Paper Series

Covid-19 and rural landscape: the case of Italy

No 2478 / October 2020

Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Abstract

Throughout the covid‐19 emergency, health authorities have presented contagion data divided by administrative regions with no reference to the type of landscape, environment or development model. This study has been conducted to understand whether there is a correlation between the number of infections and the different rural landscapes of the country. Italy's rural landscape can be classified in four types, according to the intensity of energy inputs used in the agricultural process, socioeconomic and environmental features. Type A includes areas of periurban agriculture surrounding the metropolitan cities, type B areas of intensive agriculture with high concentration of agroindustry, type C hilly areas with highly diversified agriculture and valuable landscape, and type D high hills and mountains with forests and protected areas. Areas A and B are located in the plains, covering 21% of the territory and accounting for 57% of the population. They produce most of the added value, consume high levels of energy and represent the main source of pollution. Areas C and D cover 79% of the territory and 43% of the population. We find that provinces with 10% more type C and D areas exhibit on average 10% fewer cases of contagion. The result is statistically significant, after controlling for demographic, economic and environmental characteristics of the provinces. The pollution produced in more energy‐intensive landscape has triggered an intense debate of how to ensure the economic competitiveness of Italian agriculture, without compromising environmental integrity or public health. Our findings speak to this debate, by suggesting that planning for more rural territory with lower energy inputs may come with the added benefit of new development opportunities and decreasing the exposure of the population to covid‐19. Cost benefit‐analyses should take into account that policies aimed at repopulating more rural areas may reduce the economic impact of covid‐19 and of potential future pandemics.

Keywords: Exposure to covid‐19; environment; sustainable agriculture.

JEL classification: Q1; Q15; O13.

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NON‐TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Italy has been one of the worst hit countries by covid‐19. This study links the diffusion of covid‐19 to the socio‐economic and environmental features of the Italian territory. It does so by collecting and matching data on rural classification of Italian regions, cases of covid‐19 infections, as well as demographic characteristics of the Italian population. Italians living in less energy‐intensive provinces are less exposed to covid‐19. Less energy‐intensive areas have an average of 49 infected per square kilometre and 28 per 10.000 inhabitants, compared to 134 per square kilometre and 37 per 10.000 inhabitants in more energy‐intensive zones. These results are confirmed by a more formal regression analysis and are robust to controlling for demographic, economic or environmental characteristics of the province.

The underlying causes remain unclear. Some studies suggest a relationship with pollution or wildlife used as food, but more research is needed to confirm our findings at international level and to establish a clearer causal link. What is certain is that energy‐intensive areas are more vulnerable to pollution by nitrates, methane and emissions of nitrous oxide. They are also contributing to ecosystem simplification, loss of ecosystem services and species extinctions. Independently of whether there is a causal link between pollution and covid‐19, incentives for a more sustainable agriculture are needed, to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.

The concentration of cultures in more energy‐intensive areas and the consequent abandonment of marginal areas in Italy is the result of socio‐economic forces which have shaped the Italian society since World War II. Few figures can best illustrate these developments: more than 10 million hectares of agricultural land has been abandoned, the labour force in the agricultural sector went from 42% of the total employment in the after‐war period to about the current 4%, resulting in an increased concentration of the population in urban areas and depopulation of more rural regions. The side effect has been an increase in pollution, in hydrogeological risks and the loss of fertility due to the abandonment of traditional agricultural practices. From the environmental point of view, the potential of low‐energy agriculture should be promoted more actively by policy‐makers and the public opinion, recongnizing that protecting European landscapes and biotopes of high natural conservation value requires low‐intensity farming.

The findings of this paper speak to this debate, by suggesting that cultivating more rural territory with lower energy inputs comes with the added benefit of decreasing the exposure of the

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population to covid‐19 disease. Given the exorbitant costs covid‐19 is imposing on our society, preparing for future outbreaks calls for policies that would increase the overall resilience of our system should a new pandemic strike again. Claiming back abandoned land and returning to more landscape friendly cultures should be part of this discussion. The positive externalities associated with the conservation and correct management of the landscape resources should be explicitly recognised in the economic assessment of rural development strategies.

People have moved out of rural areas for a variety of reasons. They will not go back unless proper incentives are provided. Investments in information and communication technology in these regions should be substantially increased. Faster internet connections should be considered as a basic public service. Access to healthcare, welfare and education services in these areas should also be drastically improved.

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