OPENING CALL
Stock futures were falling on Monday as investors turned their attention to inflation data on Tuesday for signals on the path of rate cuts.
The data are expected to show inflation remains high enough to suggest interest-rate cuts aren't imminent, ING said.
Annual CPI is forecast at 3.1% in February, according to the consensus in a WSJ poll.
Overseas Markets
The Nikkei 225 notched its worst one-day performance since October, and the yen rallied. GDP data showed the economy expanded last quarter, prompting investors to increase bets on a looming Bank of Japan policy change.
Chinese stocks gained, with the Hang Seng up 1.4%. China's consumer-price index came in higher than expected, easing some concerns about deflation.
Premarket Movers
Coinbase rose 6% premarket, as bitcoin notched another record high, trading above $71,000.
New York Community Bancorp rose 2% premarket after closing down over 6% Friday.
Nvidia extended its decline in off-hours trading, after dropping more than 5% Friday. The stock is still up 77% for the year. Other chip-related stocks including Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm also fell premarket.
Friday's Post-Close Movers
Graphite Bio said it would pay a special dividend tied to its merger with Lenz Therapeutics. Shares rose 10%.
Revance Therapeutics said its CEO bought additional shares in the company. Shares rose 2.7%.
Watch For:
Employment Trends for February; Earnings from Oracle, Caseys General Stores, Vail Resorts
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- Stock Market's 2024 Bull Run Faces Looming Inflation Report
- It Isn't Just Big Tech Propelling Gains in the Stock Market Anymore
- Fed and ECB Tee Up June Interest Rate Cuts. What Happens After That.
- Two Canals, Two Big Problems-One Global Shipping Mess
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The inflation data on Tuesday could halt the dollar's recent falls, ING said.
The dollar started the week steady after a steep decline on Friday. "We expect inflation figures to put a stop to the dollar decline this week."
Bonds:
Treasury yields fell too much over the past few weeks considering the resilience of the economy, Barclays Research said, recommending investors to sell 10-year Treasurys.
While the Fed still seems to be sticking to its baseline of cuts starting this year, the case for a meaningful easing cycle has weakened, raising the risk of the Fed forecasting a shallower easing cycle, Barclays said.
In addition, net supply of Treasurys should ramp up over the coming months and the more medium term, it added.
Energy:
Oil prices hovered in early European trade on concerns over slowing demand in China and uncertainties around the timing of U.S. interest-rate cuts.
Chinese consumer prices rose modestly in February, supported by a temporary holiday spending boost, but the producer-price index fell for the 17th month in a row.
All eyes are now on the CPI data due on Tuesday for signals on the path of rate cuts. Meanwhile, monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA later this week are expected to offer clues on the oil demand outlook.
Metals:
Metal prices rose, with gold climbing again on a fall in U.S. yields.
Friday's hotter-than-expected jobs data was offset by a rise in unemployment and slower growth in wages than expected, giving peace of mind to gold investors as the dollar tumbled in response, Swissquote Bank said.
There's no upper limit when people want to buy gold and it could hit even higher figures-adjusting for inflation it remains below peaks seen in 2020, 2011 and 1980-though any retreat in Fed rate-cute expectations could cool short-term price surges, it said.
Lithium is getting closer to finding a floor as supply cuts pick up, Morgan Stanley said, continuing to expect an oversupply in 2024, but a smaller one than it previously envisaged.
After a challenging 2023 for the metals industry , Jefferies "believe we are at the foothills of the next commodity cycle."
It said that there is early evidence of a recovery in global manufacturing PMIs and reckon a rally in copper, in particular, could happen sooner than envisaged, partly due to the resilience of the U.S. economy.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
EQT and Equitrans Midstream to Combine in Big Natural-Gas Deal
EQT Corp. has struck a roughly $5.5 billion deal to buy back its former unit Equitrans Midstream in a bid to create a big, vertically integrated natural-gas provider.
Each outstanding share of Equitrans common stock will be exchanged for 0.3504 share of EQT stock, representing a value of $12.50 per Equitrans share. Equitrans shares closed Friday at $11.15. Pittsburgh-based EQT had a market value of roughly $16.5 billion.
Elon Musk's xAI Will Open-Source OpenAI Rival Grok This Week
Elon Musk's artificial intelligence startup xAI will open-source Grok, a chatbot rival to OpenAI's ChatGPT, this week, Musk tweeted on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday.
Musk unveiled Grok in early November last year and said Grok can access X real time and will be available for the social-media platform's subscribers.
Behind the Alaska Blowout: a Manufacturing Habit Boeing Can't Break
Months before a piece of a Boeing 737 blew out midflight, leaving a door-sized hole in its side, the plane spent nearly three weeks shuffling down an assembly line with faulty rivets in need of repair.
Workers had spotted the bad parts almost immediately after the plane's fuselage arrived at the factory. But they didn't make the fix right away and the 737 continued on to the next workstation. When crews completed the repair 19 days later, they failed to replace four critical bolts on a plug door they had opened to do the job, leading to the Jan. 5 accident on an Alaska Airlines flight.
Nvidia's Supercharged Investment Strategy Is About More Than Returns
Nvidia has become an investor darling thanks to an artificial intelligence boom built on its chips. More quietly, the company also has made itself into one of the business world's hottest venture-capital investors.
Nvidia invested in about three dozen startups last year, according to Dealogic figures, more than tripling its activity from the previous year. The value of its investments in other companies reached about $1.55 billion at the end of January, according to Nvidia's financial statements, up from $300 million a year prior.
More Americans Are Treating Their 401(k)s Like Cash Machines
The 401(k) is doing double duty as both a retirement account and a source of emergency funds for more Americans.
A record share of 401(k) account holders took early withdrawals from their accounts last year for financial emergencies, according to internal data from Vanguard Group. Overall, 3.6% of its plan participants did so last year, up from 2.8% in 2022 and a prepandemic average of about 2%.
China's Property Bubble Popped. These Cities Are Taking the Brunt.
There are many things haunting China's economy these days, foremost among them the property market, which is a deflating bubble draining wealth from all corners of the country.
Housing prices and sales are falling, and with them the investments of Chinese, who are notorious savers who put most of their excess cash into property.
Russia Is Pumping Out Weapons-but Can It Keep It Up?
Russia's ability to churn out tanks, missiles and shells has surprised the West and heaped further pressure on Ukraine. The question now is how long it can continue.
For some Western officials and analysts, Russia's military production figures are misleading and mask challenges including a shortage of labor and a falloff in quality. The ramp-up may not be sustainable as it saps resources from the wider economy, and any drop in output could leave Russia even more reliant on help from allies such as China, Iran and North Korea, they add.
Special Counsel Aims to Turn Down Heat on Biden Report. Congress May Have Other Ideas.
WASHINGTON-Robert Hur will arrive on Capitol Hill this week intent on turning down the political temperature surrounding his report on President Biden's mishandling of classified documents, according to people familiar with his preparations.
That won't be easy.
Bid to Pause Israel-Hamas War Falters Before Ramadan Starts
TEL AVIV-Tensions deepened over the weekend between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as hopes of striking a deal to pause fighting before the start of Ramadan crumbled and a U.S. military ship set sail to ease the flow of aid into Gaza.
Biden warned on Saturday that an Israeli attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah would cross a "red line" if it caused extensive civilian casualties. He added that Netanyahu is "hurting Israel more than helping Israel."
Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings [4Q Unless Stated Otherwise]:
Altius Minerals
Ballard Power Sys
Endeavour Silver
STEP Energy
Economic Indicators (ET):
Nothing major scheduled
Stocks to Watch:
Bitfarms Announces $375M At-the-Market Equity Offering Program
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Bombardier Family Changes Represenatives in Connection With Reorganization of Family's Business; No Change to Bomardier Inc. Stake Held by Principal Shareholders
Expected Major Events for Monday
00:01/UK: Feb KPMG and REC UK Report on Jobs
00:01/UK: Feb UK Regional PMI
06:00/JPN: Feb Preliminary Machine Tool Orders
07:00/GER: 4Q Labour cost index
09:30/UK: Annual CPI Basket of Goods and Services annual review
12:30/CAN: Mar Intentions of principal field crop areas
14:00/US: Feb Employment Trends Index
14:00/US: Jan State Employment and Unemployment
23:50/JPN: Feb Corporate Goods Price Index
23:50/JPN: 1Q Business Outlook Survey
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Monday
Altius Minerals Corp (ALS.T) is expected to report for 4Q.
Ballard Power Systems (BLDP,BLDP.T) is expected to report $-0.17 for 4Q.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
03-11-24 0618ET
