SPINEGUARD Morning Note - 16th October 2020
SPINEGUARD | France - Medtech | |||||||||
Q3: a satisfactory recovery in activity | BUY | |||||||||
x | ▪ | Rebound after a weak Q2 | Fair value (EUR) | 0.85 | ||||||
▪ Safeguard procedure: hearing scheduled for October 21st | Price (EUR) | 0.181 | ||||||||
▪ A second wave whose impact is delicate to quantify | Upside/down side | + 370% |
Rescheduling of surgeries supported Q3 sales
SpineGuard published last night its Q3 turnover which came out at EUR1.33m, down -23% compared to Q3 2019 (-20% at constant exchange rates). Sales nevertheless increased by + 47% compared to Q2, which was severely impacted by the health crisis (postponement of numerous interventions to free up capacity in intensive care units and recovery rooms). Over the period, the group sold 1,424 Pediguard units against 886 in Q2 2020, highlighting the reprogramming of spine surgeries. Activity outside the US, particularly in France and Germany, was strong (+ 10% sales vs. Q3 2019 and
- 152% of units sold vs. Q2). The group has not seen any sales in China (countries with significant stocks), a situation which has a positive impact on the ASP (Average Selling Price) which we estimate to be outside the US at EUR481 (vs. EUR351 in fiscal year 2019). The situation in the US is more complex with a somewhat weaker than expected recovery (+ 24% units sold compared to Q2). While the number of overdue patients has not decreased during the confinement period, the fear of contracting the virus in hospital may represent a barrier to some patients' decision to undergo surgery, but the major impact seems to lie in the lack of visibility for certain households (loss of employment and therefore loss of the healthcare insurance). After a complex period, management plans to strengthen its commercial actions in the US to boost sales (layoffs in the sector offer opportunities to recruit good salespeople).
Lionel Labourdette, PhD, MBA
lionel@biostrategic-research.com+33 617 965 019
Stock data (2020-10-15)
ISIN | FR0011464452 |
Ticker | ALSGD.PA |
Price (EUR) | 0.181 |
Market capitalisation (EURm) | 3.8 |
Free float (%) est. | 85,0 |
Floating capitalisation (EURm) | 3.3 |
Number of shares (,000) | 20,848 |
Average daily volume (3 m) | 122,427 |
12m performance
0,40 | ||||||
0,30 | ||||||
0,20 | ||||||
0,10 | ||||||
0,00 | 16/12/19 | 16/06/20 | ||||
16/10/19 | 16/02/20 | 16/04/20 | 16/08/20 | 16/10/20 | ||
ALSGD | ALSGD rel to CAC Small & Mid 190 |
What to expect from the upcoming hearing?
SpineGuard is due to present its plan to the Commercial Court of Créteil next week. It is very likely that the rescheduling of the debt will be recorded in order to give the group better visibility to repay its creditors. It should be kept in mind that operational balance has almost been reached and the realistic development plan (sales growth, partnerships) must be supported by postponing loan repayment deadlines.
Valuation and rating
The released figures are reassuring. The dynamics in the US could be better but the situation can change very quickly in this area. The current question mark is the impact of the second wave which is affecting Europe and may cause the postponement of some surgeries. However, the postponement cannot go on forever. The stock price is still decorrelated from the value and potential of the technology. We therefore remain positive on the dossier.
Next communication:FY revenues (end of January 2021, date to be defined)
Change (%) | 1 m | 3 m | 12m |
Absolute | -1.1% | -4.5% | -25.8% |
Rel. to CAC SM190 | 1.5% | -4.9% | -16.1% |
Rel. to Next Biotech | -8.6% | 8.4% | -45.4% |
Financials (31/12)
EURm | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E |
Sales | 6.8 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 10.0 |
EBITDA | -0.1 | -0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
EBIT | -0.4 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
Net income | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 0.6 |
EPS (EUR) | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Net debt | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 4.4 |
Key ratios
2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E | |
EV/Sales | 1.1x | 1.6x | 0.9x | 0.8x |
EV/EBITDA | na | na | 12.7x | 7.3x |
EV/EBIT | na | na | 27.7x | 9.9x |
PER | na | na | na | 6.3x |
ROIC | -9% | na | 5% | 17% |
ROE | 12% | 30% | 2% | -6% |
EV/IC | 1.5x | 1.8x | 1.4x | 1.7x |
Gearing | -84% | -85% | -49% | -43% |
The issuer and Biostrategic Partners have agreed that Biostrategic Partners will produce and disseminate investment research as a service
1
Profit and Loss
As of 31/12 (EURm) | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E |
Sales | 6.35 | 7.46 | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 5.37 | 7.95 | 10.00 |
Change n-1 | 43.1% | 17.6% | 9.5% | -7.3% | -9.9% | -21.4% | 48.0% | 25.8% |
Other revenues | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Total revenues | 6.35 | 7.46 | 8.17 | 7.58 | 6.83 | 5.37 | 7.95 | 10.00 |
Gross margin | 5.36 | 6.35 | 6.95 | 6.55 | 5.77 | 4.59 | 7.01 | 8.89 |
EBITDA | -3.73 | -3.31 | -2.66 | -0.86 | -0.14 | -0.76 | 0.54 | 1.13 |
Change n-1 | 12% | 11% | 20% | 68% | 84% | -460% | 171% | -108% |
Depreciation & amortisation | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
Goodwill | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
EBIT | -3.97 | -3.63 | -2.96 | -1.11 | -0.43 | -1.05 | 0.25 | 0.83 |
Change n-1 | 11% | 9% | 18% | 63% | 61% | -143% | 124% | -232% |
Net financial income | 0.10 | -0.54 | -1.16 | -1.21 | -0.64 | -0.69 | -0.36 | -0.23 |
Minorities | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Net profit before tax | -3.88 | -4.18 | -4.13 | -2.32 | -1.07 | -1.74 | -0.11 | 0.60 |
Tax | - | - | - | -0.02 | 0.39 | - | - | - |
Net in come | -3.88 | -4.18 | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -1.74 | -0.11 | 0.60 |
Change n-1 | 15% | -8% | 1% | 43% | 71% | -154% | 94% | 646% |
EPS | -0.77 | -0.82 | -0.72 | -0.34 | -0.05 | -0.10 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
EPS fully diluted | -0.77 | -0.75 | -0.68 | -0.38 | -0.05 | -0.09 | -0.01 | 0.03 |
Gross margin (% of sales) | 84.5% | 85.1% | 85.1% | 86.5% | 84.5% | 85.5% | 88.1% | 88.9% |
EBITDA (% of sales) | na | na | na | na | na | na | 7% | 11% |
EBIT (% of sales) | na | na | na | na | na | na | 3% | 8% |
Net margin (% of sales) | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | 6% |
Cash Flow statement
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E |
Net income | -3.88 | -4.18 | -4.13 | -2.33 | -0.69 | -1.74 | -0.11 | 0.60 |
Depreciation and amortisation | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
Goodwill | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Change in WCR | 0.53 | -1.01 | 0.26 | -0.08 | 0.27 | -0.60 | -0.37 | -0.14 |
Others | 0.50 | 0.83 | 1.05 | 1.49 | 0.71 | 1.01 | 0.67 | 0.54 |
Cash-flow from operations | -2.60 | -4.03 | -2.51 | -0.67 | 0.60 | -1.05 | 0.49 | 1.30 |
Capex | -0.20 | -0.06 | -0.05 | -0.05 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 |
Free cash flow | -2.80 | -4.09 | -2.56 | -0.72 | 0.52 | -1.13 | 0.41 | 1.22 |
Acquisitions | -0.37 | -0.09 | - | - | -0.15 | - | - | - |
Divestments | - | 0.01 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Dividends | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Capital increase | 2.64 | 0.42 | 2.21 | 1.68 | 1.75 | - | - | - |
Financing (bank and others) | 2.76 | 2.87 | 0.01 | 4.64 | 0.22 | - | - | - |
Others | -1.51 | -0.54 | -0.26 | -5.73 | -1.54 | - | -2.36 | -2.53 |
Change in cash over the period | 0.72 | -1.42 | -0.61 | -0.13 | 0.80 | -1.13 | -1.96 | -1.31 |
Opening cash position | 2.51 | 3.23 | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.05 | 2.01 | 0.88 | -1.08 |
Closing cash position | 3.23 | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.85 | 0.88 | -1.08 | -2.39 |
2
Balance sheet
Au 31/12 (MEUR) | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2021E | 2022E |
Fixed assets | 0.21 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.63 | 0.56 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
Intangible assets | 1.26 | 1.11 | 0.90 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.59 | 0.45 | 0.31 |
Goodwill | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 3.08 |
Financial assets | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Inventories | 0.59 | 1.02 | 0.81 | 0.84 | 0.66 | 0.53 | 0.79 | 0.99 |
Account receivables | 0.94 | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.32 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 1.34 | 1.68 |
Other receivables | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.58 |
Cash and cash equivalents | 3.23 | 1.80 | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.40 | 0.27 | -1.68 | -2.99 |
Prepaid expenses | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Other non-current assets | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
Total assets | 9.92 | 9.41 | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.12 | 6.56 | 4.97 | 4.17 |
Equity | 4.74 | 1.19 | -0.20 | -5.35 | -5.57 | -5.76 | -6.36 | -10.15 |
Others | - | - | - | 4.86 | 5.78 | 5.78 | 8.15 | 10.68 |
Provisions | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
Financial debt | 2.99 | 6.00 | 6.23 | 6.07 | 6.08 | 5.16 | 1.41 | 1.41 |
Account payables | 1.10 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 0.68 | 1.01 | 1.27 |
Other debts | 1.04 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.80 |
Deferred income and other liabilities | - | - | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
Total liabilities | 9.92 | 9.41 | 8.15 | 7.86 | 8.12 | 6.56 | 4.97 | 4.17 |
3
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Responsibility for this publication
This publication has been prepared under the only responsibility of BioStrategic Partners.
Recipient
This publication is exclusively designed for "Eligible Counterparties" or "Business Customers". It is not designed to be distributed or transmitted. directly or indirectly. to "Retail Customers".
Absence of investment advice
This publication has been produced for information only and does not represent investment advice. given that it has been prepared without knowledge of the financial situation. asset position or any other personal circumstance of the persons who may receive it.
Absence of buy or sell offering of financial instruments
This publication does not represent an offering or an incentive to buy or sell the financial instruments outlined in it.
Reliability of information
Every precaution has been taken by Biostrategic Partners to ensure that the information contained in this publication come from sources considered reliable. Unless otherwise specifically indicated in this publication. all opinions. estimations and forecasts given. are those of Biostrategic Partners at that date and may be revised without prior notice.
Exemption from liability
Neither Biostrategic Partners nor SwissLife Banque Privée shall be liable for any damage that may result from the incorrect or incomplete nature of this publication. Neither Biostrategic Partners or SwissLife Banque Privée is not liable for any investment decisions. regardless of their nature. made by the users of this publication on its basis.
Transfer and distribution of this publication
This document was sent. prior to its publication. to the issuer of the financial instruments to which it refers. This document may not be reproduced. distributed or published in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Biostrategic Partners and SwissLife Banque Privée.
Warning concerning performance
Investors should note that any income from financial instruments can fluctuate and that prices can fall as well as rise. Past and simulated performance does not guarantee future performance.
Detection of potential conflicts of interest
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with Biostrategic Partners | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | |||
The analyst has a familial relationship with a founding partner of IPF Partners who holds SpineGuard' bonds with warrants attached
- Biostrategic Partners has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- Biostrategic Partners holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in Biostrategic Partners.
- Biostrategic Partners and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- Biostrategic Partners has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- Biostrategic Partners has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of Biostrategic Partners is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
Company | Potential conflicts of interest with SwissLifeBanquePrivée | ||||||||
SPINEGUARD | a) | b) | c) | d) | e) | f) | g) | ||
Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | |||
- SwissLife Banque Privée has participated or is participating. either as lead manager or member of an investment or guarantee syndicate for a financial transaction. either as advisor of a public offering over the last twelve months or as Listing Sponsor of the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in the capital of the company under analysis.
- The company who is the subject of this analysis holds an investment stake greater than or equal to 5% in SwissLife Banque Privée.
- SwissLife Banque Privée and/or one of its affiliates is/are liquidity provider(s) or market maker(s) for (one of) the company's financial instrument/s.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has agreed with the company to provide a service of production and distribution of analysis regarding the company.
- SwissLife Banque Privée has modified its conclusions after notifying the company before its distribution of this analysis.
- The person/s responsible for the analysis. a director or a member of the Board of Directors of SwissLife Banque Privée is a manager. director or member of the Board of Directors of the company.
4
This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
SpineGuard SA published this content on 28 January 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 January 2021 09:43:04 UTC.
