2020 Results
Investor and Analyst Presentation
Agenda
Email address for webcast participants' questions: brian.bickell@shaftesbury.co.uk
Note: All data refers to the wholly-owned portfolio unless otherwise stated
- Introduction Brian Bickell
- Results & Finance Chris Ward
- 2021 & Beyond Brian Bickell
- Sustainability Brian Bickell
- Outlook Brian Bickell
-
Q&A
Brian Bickell Chris Ward Simon Quayle Tom Welton
2
Introduction | |
Iconic villages | Covent Garden |
5.0 acres | |
25% of portfolio1 |
Fitzrovia
0.9 acres
4% of portfolio1
Longmartin
1.9 acres | Chinatown |
5% of portfolio1 | |
Soho | 3.8 acres |
21% of portfolio1 |
1.5 acres
8% of portfolio1 Carnaby
4.8 acres
37% of portfolio1
1. % of combined portfolio valuation
In normal times
c. 754,000 | >200 million | >3% | >200 million | |
working population | passengers use the six | City of Westminster | annual visits to | 3 |
in the City of | Underground stations closest | contribution to UK GVA | the West End | |
Westminster | to our villages |
Introduction
Covid-19 impact on West End footfall
2020 footfall as a % of the same week last year
120% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Lockdown | Begin to | F&B reopened | Enter 2nd | 2nd | Tier 2→3 | |||||||||||||||||
Non essential retail and | unlock | wave | Lockdown | |||||||||||||||||||
hospitality closed, work | Retail | UK high street at 61% | Rule of six, | |||||||||||||||||||
100% | from home | reopened | of 2019 level | work from | ||||||||||||||||||
West End at 39% | home | |||||||||||||||||||||
UK high street at 20% | Tier 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||
80% | of 2019 level | |||||||||||||||||||||
West End at 8% | UK High Street | |||||||||||||||||||||
60% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
40% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
West End | ||||||||||||||||||||||
0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 11 12 13 14 | 15 16 17 18 | 19 20 21 22 | 23 24 25 26 27 | 28 2930 31 | 32 33 34 35 | 36 37 38 3940 | 41 42 4344 | 45 46 47 48 | 4950 51 52 | ||||
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | |||||||||||
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December |
Source: New West End Company | 4 |
Results & Finance
Chris Ward
5
Results & Finance
Rent Collection
53% of rents collected for the 6 months to 30 September
Deferred, waived or outstanding
17%
21%
83%
Collected79%
46%
54%
67%
33%
Residential: | Offices: | Retail: | Food, beverage and leisure: |
£7.1m | £9.4m | £17.7m | £22.9m |
1. For the 6 months to 30 September 2020
Note: Width of columns is contracted rent in the 6 months to 30 September 2020 Collection % as at 30 November 2020
Deferred, waived or outstanding
47%
53
%
Collected
Total contracted1: £57.1m
Appendix 1 | 6 |
Results & Finance
Letting activity Significant decrease in leasing volume due to Covid-19
- Business confidence affected by pandemic and outlook for economy and consumer spending
- Leasing activity affected since February 2020
- Decrease in commercial leasing activity particularly noticeable in H2
- Lettings and renewals: £2.1m
- Rent reviews: £2.7m
Leasing volume (£m)
16.6 | 16.9 | ||
Residential | 3.7 | 15.0 | |
3.6 | Residential | ||
2.2 | H2 volumes | ||
down 49% | |||
vs 2019 | |||
8.6 | |||
Commercial | 13.2 | Commercial | 3.8 |
13.0 | 12.8 | ||
4.8 | |||
H1 | H2 | H1¹ | H2 |
2019 | 2020 |
1. 2020 includes £2.5m pre-let to Equinox at 72 Broadwick in December 2019 | Appendix 1 | 7 |
Results & Finance
EPRA vacancy Unprecedented availability of space across the West End
- Vacancy at 30 September: £14.4m, 10.2% (+6.5% Y-o-Y)
- Majority of the increase in vacancy in H2
- Affected all uses
- Reduced near-term occupier demand and letting activity
- Completion of schemes
- Space handed back by commercial tenants
- Exceptional increase in vacant apartments
- 137 apartments
- Overseas occupiers returned home
- Near-termavailability of flats to let across the West End
Covid-19 impact:
vacancy +7.3%
vs 10 year average
£14.4m | ||||
10.2% | ||||
Resi | ||||
2.7% | ||||
Offices | ||||
1.8% | ||||
Pre-Covid-19 | £7.2m | |||
4.8% | Retail | |||
10 year qtly average | £5.5m | |||
EPRA vacancy: | 3.2% | |||
3.7% | ||||
2.9% | ||||
F&B and | ||||
Leisure | ||||
2.5% | ||||
Sep 2019 | Mar 2020 | Sep 2020 Sep 2020 | ||
By use |
Appendix 1 | 8 |
Results & Finance
History of resilience and growth in ERVs
12 month L-f-L ERV Growth
GFC | Covid-19 | ||||||||||
7.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | ||||||||
6.1% | 6.0% | ||||||||||
4.8% | 4.3% | ||||||||||
1.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | ||||||||
-3.9% | |||||||||||
-6.6% | |||||||||||
Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10Sep-11 | Sep-12 | Sep-13Sep-14Sep-15 | Sep-16Sep-17 | Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20 |
- LfL decline: 6.6%
- Impact of reduced footfall: F&B and retail occupiers suffering operational and financial challenges
- Near-termavailability of space in West End exceeds current occupier demand
All data relates to the wholly owned portfolio | 9 |
Results & Finance
Headlines
Net property income
£74.3m
-24.2%
Portfolio value
Wholly-owned
£3.1bn
-18.3%2
Longmartin3
£0.2bn
-16.9%2
EPRA earnings | Rent collection |
£29.4m | 53% | |
-46.2% | Collected1 | |
H1: £25.3m H2: £4.1m | 34% deferred or waived | |
EPRA NAV per share | Loan to value ratio4 |
£7.43 | 31.5% | |
-24.3% | Pro forma5: 22.1% | |
Pro forma5: £6.72 | ||
- Of rents invoiced for the 6 months to 30 September 2020; collection data to 30 November
- Like-for-like
3. | Our 50% share | Appendices 2 and 3 | 10 |
4. | Based on net debt | ||
5. | Pro forma for November 2020 equity raise |
Results & Finance
EPRA earnings
Underlying earnings decrease driven by charges for expected credit losses and impairments in H2
NET PROPERTY INCOME | EPRA EARNINGS | EPRA EPS |
-24.2% | -46.2% | 9.6p |
H1: 8.2p H2: 1.4p |
(£m)
£21.9m
Appendix 2 | 11 |
Results & Finance
Portfolio investment
- Capex
- Schemes across 200,000 sq. ft.; Capex £34.8m
- Space under refurbishment: 10.1% of ERV
- 72 Broadwick Street
- 48% pre let to Equinox
- Office space no longer under offer, but encouraging other interest
- Completion in phases from Summer 2021
- Acquisitions
- 3 buildings in Carnaby and Berwick Street: £13.3m
- Acquisition in Seven Dials post year end: £2.8m
- 90-104Berwick Street
- Vendor failed to meet contractual obligations by April 2020
- Practical completion of scheme in October 2020
- Discussions continue but no decision until key conditions fulfilled to our satisfaction
12
Results & Finance
Wholly-owned valuation
18.3% like-for-like decline due to Covid-19 uncertainties
Valuation movement in the year (£m)
- 7.5%-10%reduction in residential values
- Near-termincrease in availability of space has reduced rental values
- Increased buy-to-let investor caution
- Short-termcash flow reductions
- Impact of tenant support and concessions
- Increased vacancy assumptions
- Equivalent yield: 3.9% (+48 bps)
- Investor sentiment impacted by Covid-19 uncertainty
- Operational/ financial pressure on F&B and retail occupiers
- Low visibility on near-term income
- Potential capex requirements
- ERV down 6.6% (LfL)
- Availability of space across the West End exceeds occupier demand
- Impact on supply/demand tension
- Ongoing operational and financial challenges faced by lower floor occupiers
- Uncertainty on near-term footfall/trading
Sep | Yield | ERV | Residential | Short-term | Acquisitions and | Sep |
2019 | cash flow | capex1 | 2020 |
1. Includes current market value of acquisitions made in the period and a capex | ||
movement which represents the year on year change in valuers' estimate of cost | Appendix 3 | 13 |
to complete various schemes within the portfolio |
Results & Finance
Portfolio reversionary potential
- Majority of reversion relates to vacancy and schemes in progress
- ERV decline: Valuers estimate our let accommodation currently over-rented by £2.5m
(£m)
+27.7%
72 Broadwick: 5.9 | |
Other schemes: 8.4 | |
LfL: | LfL: |
-6.4% | -6.6% |
Appendices 1 and 3 | 14 |
Results & Finance
Longmartin JV valuation
Valuation at 30 September 2020 (£m)
With % change since 30 September 2019
Retail dominated by large shops on Long Acre |
• High overall rents; further decline in occupier |
demand leading to further pressure on rental values |
Restaurants: Covid-19 disruption to |
-40.1%
-6.5%+3.7%
-17.4%
supply/demand balance |
• Near-term F&B vacancy in immediate vicinity |
Offices |
• ERV growth: 3.2%; Yield: -2 bps |
Residential decline |
• Near-term increase in availability and slowing of |
investment market |
£41.9m | £31.5m | £28.1m | £73.5m |
Retail | Restaurants | Residential | Offices |
Width of the bars denotes 30 September 2019 valuation
Valuation | £175m |
(Sep-19: £209m) | |
LfL valuation decline | 16.9% |
Equivalent yield | 4.11% (+17 bps) |
ERV | £8.8m (-12.0%) |
Annualised current income | £6.2m (-17.9%) |
Appendix 3 | 15 |
Results & Finance
Net asset value
NAV decrease due to revaluation deficits
EPRA NAV (pence per share)
Wholly-owned (228)
Longmartin (12) -24.3%
Appendix 2 | 16 |
Results & Finance
Finance position at 30 September
- Key metrics
- LTV: 31.5% (+7.6%, due to portfolio revaluation)
- Available resources: £197.8m
- Including £125m undrawn RCF
- Committed capex: £31m
- Covenants
- ICR waivers in place:
- Term loans: Jan 2021, April 2021
- RCFs: Dec 2020, Jan 2021
- Compliance with Bonds' covenants and all LTV covenants, but risk rising
- RCF maturities
- £125m: May 2022
- £100m: Feb 2023
30 September | 2020 |
£m | |
Resources | |
Cash | 72.8 |
Undrawn RCFs | 125.0 |
Available resources | 197.8 |
Commitments | (31.0) |
Uncommitted resources | 166.8 |
Debt | |
Net debt | 987.0 |
Loan to value | 31.5% |
Weighted average maturity | 8.3 years |
Blended cost of debt1 | 2.9% |
1. Including non-utilisation fees on undrawn bank facilities | Appendix 2 | 17 |
Results & Finance
Equity Issue
Maintain strong financial base and liquidity; position to return to long-term growth as pandemic issues recede
- Elevated finance risks
- Low visibility on near-term income
- Reliance on ICR waivers for working capital
- LTV risk increasing
- Signs on hardening of credit conditions; impact on further waivers and refinancing risk
- Considered range of options including disposals and equity
- Prioritise maintaining financial capacity and liquidity: focusing on debt and gearing while uncertainty over near-term rental income and property values prevails
- Material disposals to address financing risks not in shareholders' long-term interest
18
Results & Finance
Equity Issue
- Underwritten firm placing, placing and open offer (£297m gross); offer for subscription (£10m gross)
- 76.75m shares @ £4 per share
- Net proceeds: £294.4m
- Use of proceeds
- Managing finance risks
- Cancel shortest tem RCF
- Liquidity for potential ICR deposits to be used as cure rights in the absence of extended waivers
- Liquidity maintenance
- Fund estimated 2021 operating cash out flows in "reasonable worst case scenario"
- Provide capital for anticipated capex over coming two years
- Maintain prudent level of liquidity
Impact on liquidity (£m)
Undrawn
RCF
100.0
Undrawn
RCF
125.0
Cash
Cash
Projected use of proceeds
1. | In the Reasonable Worst Case scenario modelled for the Working Capital Statement | 19 |
Results & Finance
Financing: Other post Balance Sheet events
- £125m RCF cancelled
- Remove near-term refinance risk
- Release £252m of security
- Commitment fee saving: £0.8m pa
- £100m RCF repaid
- Remains available to be redrawn subject to compliance with agreement
- Annual interest saving (while undrawn) c £1m
- ICR waiver extensions
- Term loans: Jul 2021, Jan 2022
- Remaining RCF: Oct 2021
Pro forma impact
30 September | 2020 | 2020 |
Reported | Pro-forma | |
£m | £m | |
Resources | ||
Cash | 72.8 | 267.2 |
Undrawn RCFs | 125.0 | 100.0 |
Available resources | 197.8 | 367.2 |
Commitments | (31.0) | (31.0) |
Uncommitted resources | 166.8 | 336.2 |
Debt | ||
Net debt | 987.0 | 692.6 |
Loan to value | 31.5% | 22.1% |
Weighted average maturity | 8.3 years | 9.0 years |
Blended cost of debt1 | 2.9% | 3.1% |
20
2021 & Beyond
Brian Bickell
21
2021 & Beyond
2021: Headwinds continue
- Pandemic control measures likely to be in place for much of 2021 but impact reducing as conditions improve
- Continued pressure on retail and hospitality businesses
- Government has announced that London and parts of the Home Counties will be moving to Tier 3 restrictions, beginning from 16 December until further notice
- All hospitality businesses will close other than for takeaway or home delivery services
- Non-essentialtravel into or out of the Tier 3 area is discouraged
- Gradual sustained return of local and domestic footfall as confidence returns
- Encouraging footfall since November lockdown lifted
- International travel recovery from 2022
- Continuing government support for businesses uncertain
- Furlough scheme and business rates relief to continue?
- Brexit transition ends; WTO rules/disruption?
- End of tax free shopping for international visitors?
22
2021 & Beyond
2021 Recovery Strategy
- Priority to maintain occupancy and street-level activation
- Vacancy at 30.11.2020: 12% of ERV
- Continue financial and operational support for occupiers but tapering as trading improves
- Rent collection October/November: 37%
- Flexible leasing and incentives to retain and attract tenants
- Turnover-linkedrents/shorter retail leases
- Enhanced specification of new space
- Encouraging letting interest in recent weeks
23
2021 & Beyond
Focused, long term investment strategy
- Complete existing schemes
- 72 Broadwick Street
- Ensure available space is lettable and competitive
- Continue to repurpose space and improve environmental performance
- Strategic acquisitions in existing ownership clusters
- Increased availability due to Covid-19 distress
- Selective disposals of assets no longer considered "core"
24
Sustainability
Brian Bickell
25
Sustainability
Sustainability actions Reducing the impact of our operations; supporting local communities
Environment | Communities |
Governance |
- Ongoing focus on the sustainable re-use buildings
- Continue to improve energy efficiency
- GHG emissions intensity reduced by 7.7% and renewable energy for our wholly-owned supplies
- Increased biodiversity by a further 9%
- Partnering with neighbouring estates and BIDs to improve air quality
- Focused on young people and local communities in Westminster and Camden
- Establishment of Covid Community Fund to meet urgent needs
- Continued long term successful relationships with grassroots organisations
- £866,000 in donations, volunteering and in-kind support
- Board 20% remuneration waiver for four months
• Integration of UN Sustainable |
Development Goals and support |
for UN Global Compact |
• Appointed Head of Sustainability |
• Initial review of climate risks in line |
with recommendations of TCFD |
• Inclusion in the European Dow |
Jones Sustainability Index 2020 |
Sustainability embedded in our operations
26
Sustainability
Sustainability priorities
As a responsible business, we are committed to making a positive impact
Environment | Communities | Governance | ||
• Continue to focus on building re- | • Work with our occupiers to | • Continue to develop our | ||
use and demonstrate carbon | improve their sustainability | sustainability strategy | ||
benefits | performance | • Develop climate change | ||
• Publish long term science based | • Partner with local expert | disclosures in line with | ||
targets | organisation to increase impact | recommendations of TCFD | ||
• Set an ambitious and transparent | • Support community recovery from | • Work in partnership with industry | ||
net zero carbon target | Covid-19 | bodies, community groups and | ||
• Continue to invest in green | • Develop community engagement | local authorities | ||
infrastructure and set a new | strategy | |||
medium-term biodiversity target | ||||
• Work with partners to reduce | ||||
vehicle movements and improve | ||||
air quality | ||||
Science Based Targets and Net Zero Carbon target to be announced in 2021
27
Outlook
Brian Bickell
28
Outlook
London and the West End
Global appeal; structural resilience
- London
- Global creative, financial and commercial centre
- One of the world's most popular visitor destinations
- Population of 9.3m with expected growth to 10m by 2030
- The West End
- Seven days-a-week economy with access to an affluent, diverse customer base
- Huge working population
- Best and most-innovative restaurants, cafes, bars and clubs
- Unrivalled concentration of entertainment and cultural attractions
- Excellent transport links
- Shaftesbury
- Busiest and liveliest locations in the heart of the West End
- Distinctive, mid-market offer
- Modest rental levels
- Adaptable buildings
29
Outlook | |
The Shaftesbury Proposition | |
Making great places even better | Experienced |
& innovative | |
management | |
team |
Making a positive long lasting contribution to
London's West EndLong-term
Responsible estate management Strategy
Long-term | Impossible- | Low risk |
growth | to-replicate | |
prospects | portfolio |
30
Q&A
31
Appendices
- Portfolio
- Financial
- Valuation
- Village Summaries
- Principal Risks
32
1 Portfolio
33
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Exceptional portfolio in the heart of London's West End
CARNABY
4.8 ACRES
39%
Of portfolio1,2
COVENT
GARDEN
5.0 ACRES 27%
Of portfolio1,2
CHINATOWN
3.8 ACRES
22%
Of portfolio1,2
SOHO
1.5 ACRES
8%
Of portfolio1,2
FITZROVIA
0.9 ACRES
4%
Of portfolio1,2
LONGMARTIN
34 years to accumulate and virtually impossible to replicate
16 acres and 1.9 acres owned in joint venture
c. 600 buildings2 clustered in
iconic, high footfall locations
1.9 ACRES
1.9 million sq ft
of commercial and residential space and 0.3m sq ft held in joint venture
100% of our portfolio is close to an Underground/Elizabeth Line station
1. | By value | 34 |
2. | Wholly-owned portfolio |
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Our portfolio
Split by ERV
33%
Upper floors
Lower floors
67%
Food, | Retail | Offices | Residential |
beverage | |||
and leisure |
317 | 294 | 0.4m | 624 |
0.7m sq. ft. | 0.4m sq. ft. | sq. ft. | 0.4m sq. ft. |
37% | 30% | 20%of ERV | 13%of ERV |
of ERV | of ERV | ||
35
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Covid-19: impact and response
- Covid-19having a material adverse effect on the Group's revenue
- Decline in visitors and spending since March due to restrictions on business and impact of social distancing measures
- Negative impact on F&B and retail trading activity, reduced office utilisation and increased residential vacancy, materially affecting rent collection and vacancy
- Elevated near-term risk of higher EPRA vacancy until there is a return of business and consumer confidence and activity
- Strategy: preserve long-term value by supporting tenants and maintaining occupancy
- Waiver and deferral of contracted rents for limited periods
- Drawing on rent deposits which tenants are not being required to replenish
- Restructuring leases, including removing or deferring break clauses, and settling outstanding rent reviews
- From October 2020, option for tenants to pay rents and service charges monthly, rather than quarterly in advance
- Further support to December 2020 and likely to continue into next year depending on trading conditions in the coming months and prospects for 2021
(contd…)
February 2020
- Global Covid-19 concerns grow
- Footfall and spending begin to decline, first in Chinatown then across the West End
- Reduced leasing activity as global business confidence declines
March 2020
- UK Government restrictions to halt spread of Covid-19
- Footfall and commercial activity at negligible levels
- Construction activity halted
April-June 2020
- Plans begin to emerge for gradual relaxation of Government restrictions
- Non-essentialretail allowed to open from June 15
- F&B and leisure opening remained uncertain
July-August 2020
- F&B permitted to reopen on 4 July
- Improvement as local and domestic day visitors return, followed by gradual return of office workers
- F&B trade benefits from Eat Out to Help Out scheme
-
Footfall approaching 50% of pre-
pandemic level36
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Covid-19: impact and response (contd.)
- Measures to preserve liquidity
- Moratorium on all non-essential expenditure, new schemes and acquisitions, other than by exception
- No dividends to be declared for FY 2020
- Agreed interest cover waivers in relation to the RCFs and Term Loans until at least December 2020 with one now extended until June 2021
- West End's recovery will depend on duration and severity of government social distancing restrictions:
- Government advice/restrictions affecting office usage
- Impact of social distancing measures on trading capacity and turnover levels
- Recovery in confidence and local and domestic visitor footfall
- Public transport usage in and out of the West End and levels of the daily office working population
- Re-openingof visitor attractions, such as theatres, cinemas, galleries, museums
- Recovery in international tourism
September 2020
- Concerns over a second wave grow with extensive "local lockdowns" in Scotland, Wales and the North
- Government imposes national 10pm F&B curfew, new "rule of six" restricting size of groups and return to work guidance reversed
October 2020
- Government introduces new three-tier alert framework to address regional outbreaks. London was then placed in tier two, the "High risk" tier, which means two households are not permitted to mix indoors
November 2020
- 2nd "national lockdown" for 4 weeks
- Non-essentialretail closed, hospitality closed except for takeaway, work from home
December 2020
- 2nd lockdown ends
- Stringent social distancing restrictions remain in place, work from home advice remains
- London in Tier 2 moving to Tier 3 on 16 December
37
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Rent collection by use
For the 6 months to 30 September 2020
Food, beverage | Shops | Offices | Residential | Total | Total | |
and leisure | ||||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | % | |
Collected | 7.4 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 30.3 | 53% |
Deferred | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | - | 5.2 | 9% |
Waived | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 14.3 | 25% |
Outstanding | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7.3 | 13% |
Total contracted | 22.9 | 17.7 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 57.1 | |
For the 2 months to 30 November 2020
Food, beverage and | Shops | Offices | Residential | Total | Total | |
leisure | ||||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | % | |
Collected | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6.9 | 37% |
Waived | 4.5 | 2.8 | 0.1 | - | 7.4 | 40% |
Outstanding | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 23% |
Total contracted | 8.0 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 18.6 | |
Note: Data as at 30 November 2020 | 38 |
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Mix of uses
Evolution of uses over time
9% | Residential |
19% | Offices |
40% | Retail |
32% | Food, beverage & leisure |
13%
20%
30%
37%
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Data shown reflects wholly-owned portfolio | 39 |
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
EPRA vacancy
Food, beverage | Shops | Offices | Residential | Total | % of total | % of total | |
and leisure | ERV | ERV | |||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Under offer | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 1.1% | 1.8% |
Available-to-let | 2.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 12.7 | 9.1% | 1.9% |
Total | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 14.4 | 10.2% | 3.7% |
2019 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 5.5 | ||
Area ('000 sq. ft.) | |||||||
30.9.20 | 47 | 45 | 40 | 72 | 204 | ||
30.9.19 | 16 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 75 |
Number
30.9.20 | 22 | 35 | 45 | 137 | 239 |
1. | 2019 and 2020: Central Cross | 40 |
Appendix: 1 Portfolio | Covid-19 impact: | ||
Vacancy +7.3% | |||
EPRA vacancy | |||
vs 10 year average | |||
10.2% | 10.2% | ||
0.4% | |||
Resi | |||
2.7% | |||
6.0% | Offices | |||||||||||||||||||
1.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
8.7% | ||||||||||||||||||||
Pre-Covid-19 | 4.6% | Retail | ||||||||||||||||||
10 year qtly average | 3.3% | |||||||||||||||||||
0.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | ||||||||||||||||||
EPRA vacancy: | ||||||||||||||||||||
3.2% | 0.2% | |||||||||||||||||||
2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | ||||||||||||||||||
1.3% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||||||
2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.7% | |||||||||||||||||
2.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | ||||||||||||||
1.0% | 1.7% | F&B and | ||||||||||||||||||
Pre-Covid-19 | ||||||||||||||||||||
0.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||
0.9% | Leisure | |||||||||||||||||||
Underlying1 | 2.0% | 1.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
1.7% | 2.5% | |||||||||||||||||||
1.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.1% | ||||||||||||||||
10 year qtly average | 0.8% | |||||||||||||||||||
0.7% | 0.7% | |||||||||||||||||||
0.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||
Sep-10 | Sep-11 | Sep-12 | Sep-13 | Sep-14 | Sep-15 | Sep-16 | Sep-17 | Sep-18 | Sep-19Sep-20Sep-20 | |||||||||||
by use | ||||||||||||||||||||
Under offer | Available to let | Larger schemes (under offer)² | Larger schemes (available to let)² | |||||||||||||||||
1. | Underlying 10 year quarterly average excludes larger schemes | 41 |
2. | Larger schemes are Central Cross (2017, 2018, 2019 & 2020) and Thomas Neal's Warehouse (2017 & 2018) |
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
Scheme vacancy
Food, beverage | Shops | Offices | Residential | Total | % of total | % of total | |
and leisure | ERV | ERV | |||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
72 Broadwick Street | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 5.9 | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Other schemes | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 6.3% |
Total | 4.5 | 2.2 | 6.2 | 1.4 | 14.3 | 10.1% | 10.4% |
2019 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 15.5 | ||
Area ('000 sq. ft.) | |||||||
30.9.20 | 63 | 22 | 85 | 30 | 200 | ||
30.9.19 | 73 | 27 | 77 | 36 | 213 |
42
Appendix: 1 Portfolio
10 year scheme vacancy
11.0% | |||||||||||||||
10.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | |||||||||||||
Resi | |||||||||||||||
1.0% | |||||||||||||||
10 year average | 5.7% | 7.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | |||||||||||
scheme vacancy: | |||||||||||||||
6.6% | 4.4% | ||||||||||||||
6.5% | |||||||||||||||
Offices | |||||||||||||||
5.6% | 5.8% | 2.8% | |||||||||||||
1.9% | 1.7% | ||||||||||||||
2.0% | 4.2% | ||||||||||||||
Retail | |||||||||||||||
2.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | |||||||||||||
6.3% | |||||||||||||||
6.0% | |||||||||||||||
5.3% | |||||||||||||||
0.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | |||||||||||||
F&B & | |||||||||||||||
1.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | |||||||||||||
2.9% | Leisure | ||||||||||||||
3.2% | |||||||||||||||
1.9% | |||||||||||||||
1.2% | |||||||||||||||
Sep-11 | Sep-12 | Sep-13 | Sep-14 | Sep-15 | Sep-16 | Sep-17 | Sep-18 | Sep-19 | Sep-20 | Sep-20 | |||||
Other schemes | Larger schemes¹ | by use | |||||||||||||
1. | 2012 to 2014: Carnaby Court. 2015: Central Cross. 2016: Central Cross, | |
57 Broadwick St and Thomas Neal's Warehouse. 2017: 57 Broadwick St. | 43 | |
2018 to 2020: 72 Broadwick St. |
2 Financial
44
Appendix: 2 Financial
Income and costs
EPRA EARNINGS | Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 |
£m | £m | |
Rental income | 114.4 | 117.3 |
Provisions for expected credit losses and impairments | (21.9) | - |
Other property charges | (18.2) | (19.3) |
Net property income | 74.3 | 98.0 |
Administrative expenses | (14.4) | (15.2) |
59.9 | 82.8 | |
Net finance costs | (31.8) | (30.5) |
Share of Longmartin JV profit before tax1 | (1.3) | 2.9 |
Recurring profit before tax | 26.8 | 55.2 |
Share of Longmartin JV current tax | 2.6 | (0.6) |
EPRA earnings | 29.4 | 54.6 |
1. After adjusting for revaluation surplus and deferred tax | 45 |
Appendix: 2 Financial
Reconciliation of IFRS to proportional consolidation
BALANCE SHEET | 30 September 2020 | 30 September 2019 | |||||||
IFRS | Longmartin JV | Proportional | IFRS | Longmartin JV | Proportional | ||||
consolidation | consolidation | ||||||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | £m | ||||
Investment properties | 3,115.5 | 179.0 | 3,294.5 | 3,765.9 | 213.2 | 3,979.1 | |||
Investment in Longmartin JV | 96.8 | (96.8) | - | 127.6 | (127.6) | - | |||
Net debt | (987.0) | (57.9) | (1,044.9) | (905.8) | (59.4) | (965.2) | |||
Other assets and liabilities | 55.3 | (24.3) | 31.0 | 19.5 | (26.2) | (6.7) | |||
Net assets | 2,280.6 | - | 2,280.6 | 3,007.2 | - | 3,007.2 | |||
INCOME STATEMENT | Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |||||||
IFRS | Longmartin JV | Proportional | IFRS | Longmartin JV | Proportional | ||||
consolidation | consolidation | ||||||||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | £m | ||||
Net property income | 74.3 | 5.6 | 79.9 | 98.0 | 6.4 | 104.4 | |||
Administrative expenses | (14.4) | (0.1) | (14.5) | (15.2) | (0.1) | (15.3) | |||
Profit on disposal | 0.3 | - | 0.3 | 2.8 | - | 2.8 | |||
Revaluation surplus/(deficit) | (698.5) | (35.8) | (734.3) | (15.3) | (19.2) | (34.5) | |||
Operating profit | (638.3) | (30.3) | (668.6) | 70.3 | (12.9) | 57.4 | |||
Net finance costs | (31.8) | (3.7) | (35.5) | (30.5) | (3.4) | (33.9) | |||
Share of Longmartin post-tax loss | (29.4) | 29.4 | - | (13.8) | 13.8 | - | |||
Profit before tax | (699.5) | (4.6) | (704.1) | 26.0 | (2.5) | 23.5 | |||
Tax | - | 4.6 | 4.6 | - | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||
Profit after tax | (699.5) | - | (699.5) | 26.0 | - | 26.0 |
46
Appendix: 2 Financial
EPRA net asset measures
30 September 2020 | ||||||
Existing measures | New measures | |||||
EPRA NAV | EPRA NNNAV | EPRA NRV | EPRA NTA | EPRA NDV | ||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | ||
IFRS net assets | 2,280.6 | 2,280.6 | 2,280.6 | 2,280.6 | 2,280.6 | |
Dilutive effect of share options | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | |
Joint venture deferred tax | 8.5 | - | 8.5 | 8.5 | - | |
Excess of fair value over book value: | - | - | (48.0) | |||
Secured term loans | - | (48.0) | ||||
Mortgage bonds | - | 11.4 | - | - | 11.4 | |
Investment property purchaser's costs | - | - | 222.5 | - | - | |
Total | 2,289.8 | 2,244.7 | 2,512.3 | 2,289.8 | 2,244.7 | |
Number of shares (m) | 308.0 | 308.0 | 308.0 | 308.0 | 308.0 | |
Diluted net assets per share (£) | 7.43 | 7.29 | 8.16 | 7.43 | 7.29 | |
30 September 2019 | ||||||
Existing measures | New measures | |||||
EPRA NAV | EPRA NNNAV | EPRA NRV | EPRA NTA | EPRA NDV | ||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | ||
IFRS net assets | 3,007.2 | 3,007.2 | 3,007.2 | 3,007.2 | 3,007.2 | |
Dilutive effect of share options | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | |
Joint venture deferred tax | 13.6 | - | 13.6 | 13.6 | - | |
Excess of fair value over book value: | - | - | ||||
Secured term loans | - | (75.8) | (75.8) | |||
Mortgage bonds | - | (17.9) | - | - | (17.9) | |
Investment property purchaser's costs | - | - | 272.9 | - | - | |
Total | 3,021.3 | 2,914.0 | 3,294.2 | 3,021.3 | 2,914.0 | |
Number of shares (m) | 307.7 | 307.7 | 307.7 | 307.7 | 307.7 | |
Diluted net assets per share (£) | 9.82 | 9.47 | 10.71 | 9.82 | 9.47 |
47
Appendix: 2 Financial
Debt maturity profile (£m)
Weighted average maturity: 8.3 years1,2
Bond | Bond | |||||
1997 RCF3 | 2018RCF4 | 2017First Mortgage | CL Facility Agreement | AV Facility Agreement | 285 | 2016First Mortgage |
290 |
125 | 100 | 135 | 130 | ||||
2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2026 | 2027 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 |
Bank facilities | Bonds (fixed rate) | Term loans (fixed rate) |
1. As at 30 September 2020
2. Excluding Longmartin non-recourse debt
3. Undrawn at 30 September and terminated since
4. Drawn at 30 September 2020 but repaid since
Agreement
AV Facility
120
2035
48
Appendix: 2 Financial
Debt covenants
INTEREST COVER | Frequency of testing | Summary of measure | Min | Comments |
Bonds | Half yearly | Net property income of specifically | 1.15x | Calculation is based on the annualised income |
secured assets, adjusted to exclude | accruing at the testing date, or due to accrue within | |||
certain costs, to gross interest | three months. | |||
payable under the bonds. | ||||
Security top-up (or purchase and cancel sufficient | ||||
bonds) to 1.25x required if ICR falls below 1.15x | ||||
Term loans | Quarterly | Net property income of specifically | 1.4x - 1.5x 3-month backward looking test based on actual | |
secured assets, adjusted to exclude | receipts. 12-month projected test. Cure rights | |||
certain costs, to gross interest | available. | |||
payable under the loans. | ||||
Waivers until July 2021 (£134.8m term loan) and | ||||
January 2022 (£250m term loan)
Revolving credit facility1 Quarterly | Consolidated net rental income plus | 1.5x |
dividends from the joint venture to | ||
consolidated net interest. |
Based on Group half year and full year reported information, and management accounts in the interim quarters.
Waiver until October 2021
LOAN TO VALUE | Frequency of testing | Summary of measure | Min | Comments |
Bonds | Half yearly | Nominal value of bonds to valuation | 66.67% | Security top-up (or purchase and cancel sufficient |
of specifically secured assets. | bonds) to 60.0% required if LTV exceeds 66.67%. | |||
Term loans | Quarterly | Debt to valuation of specifically | 60% - | Cure rights available. Cash waterfall applies if LTV > |
secured assets. | 70% | 65%. | ||
Revolving credit facility1 | Quarterly | Amounts drawn to valuation of | 66.67% | Cure rights available. Draw stop at 50% during term |
specifically secured assets. | of ICR waiver. | |||
1. Ignoring our £125m facility which was terminated in November 2020 | 49 |
3 Valuation
50
Appendix: 3 Valuation
Valuation summary
Annualised | ||||
Fair value | current income | ERV | ||
£m | % of portfolio | £m | £m | |
Carnaby | 1,212.3 | 39% | 41.7 | 58.0 |
Covent Garden | 840.8 | 27% | 28.8 | 35.4 |
Chinatown | 700.6 | 22% | 24.7 | 30.1 |
Soho | 258.7 | 8% | 10.4 | 11.3 |
Fitzrovia | 125.0 | 4% | 4.3 | 5.5 |
Wholly-owned portfolio | 3,137.4 | 100% | 109.9 | 140.3 |
Longmartin joint venture (our 50%) | 175.0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | |
51
Appendix: 3 Valuation
History of ERVs and reversion
GFC | 10 year L-f-L CAGR pre-Covid-19 | Covid-19 | ||
Annualised current income | +4.2% | |||
ERV | +4.7% |
27% | 28% | 150 | 28% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28% | 25% | 119 | 27% | 129 | 27% | 134 | 144 | 140 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
117 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
23% | 110 | 113 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22% | 105 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
101 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24% | 24% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 85 | 93 | 98 | 86 | 95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | 74 | 76 | 80 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | 73 | 62 | 72 | 67 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55 | 59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sep-07Sep-08Sep-09Sep-10 | Sep-11 | Sep-12 | Sep-13 | Sep-14Sep-15 | Sep-16 | Sep-17 | Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20 |
Annualised current income¹ (£m) | Estimated rental value¹ (£m) | ||||||
All data relates to the wholly owned portfolio | 52 |
1. Includes acquisitions |
Appendix: 3 Valuation
L-f-L change in capital values
H1 FY20 | H2 FY20 | ||||||||||
Carnaby | Covent Garden | Chinatown | Soho | Fitzrovia | Wholly-owned | Longmartin | Total | ||||
5 year CAGR | -1.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | +0.2% | -0.7% | -1.1% | -4.7% | -1.3% | |||
12 month | -17.0% | -19.5% | -17.8% | -21.2% | -18.5% | -18.3% | -16.9% | -18.2% |
(7.3%) | (8.2%) | (8.6%) | (8.4%) | (7.8%) | (7.9%) | (7.2%) | (7.9%) |
(10.5%) | (10.5%) | |||
(12.4%) | (10.1%) | (11.6%) | (11.2%) | (11.2%) |
(14.0%) | ||||
53
Appendix: 3 Valuation
Yields
Equivalent yield (%) | Sep-20 | Mar-20 | Sep-19 | |||||||||||||||||
4.2 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | |||||||||||
3.7 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
3.3 | 3.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
Carnaby | Covent Garden | Chinatown | Soho | Fitzrovia | Wholly-owned | Longmartin |
Initial yield (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
3.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | |||||||||||||
2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||
2.8 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||
2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
Carnaby | Covent Garden | Chinatown | Soho | Fitzrovia | Wholly-owned | Longmartin |
54
Appendix: 3 Valuation
Portfolio reversion by use
F&B and leisure | Retail | Office | Residential | Wholly-owned | Longmartin | ||
£m | £m | £m | £m | £m | £m | ||
Annualised current income | 45.6 | 34.4 | 17.2 | 12.7 | 109.9 | 6.2 | |
Vacancy | |||||||
- | Under offer/available-to-let | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 14.4 | 2.2 |
- | 72 Broadwick Street | 3.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 5.9 | - |
- | Other schemes | 1.1 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 8.4 | 0.1 |
53.6 | 41.1 | 25.9 | 18.0 | 138.6 | 8.5 | ||
Contracted (rent frees, stepped rents) | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - | 4.2 | 1.9 | |
(Over)/under-rented | (1.6) | (1.3) | 0.5 | (0.1) | (2.5) | (1.6) | |
ERV | 52.8 | 42.0 | 27.6 | 17.9 | 140.3 | 8.8 | |
55
Appendix: 3 Valuation
West End retail tones
West End retail rental tones (prime zone A per sq. ft.)
2,250 | |||||||||||||
2,175 | |||||||||||||
1,300 | Shaftesbury streets | ||||||||||||
March 2020 ZA | |||||||||||||
1,200 | |||||||||||||
825 | 750 | ||||||||||||
775 | 725 | 600 | 540 | 525 | |||||||||
550 | 500 | 475 | 375 | 360 | 240 | ||||||||
250 | 220 | 195 | |||||||||||
325 | 300 | 180 | |||||||||||
235 | 225 | 200 | 190 | ||||||||||
150 | |||||||||||||
New Bond | James St, | Oxford St* | Regent St* | Covent | Carnaby St | Long Acre | Foubert's | Neal St | Monmouth | Floral St | Newburgh | Earlham St Berwick St | |
St* | Covent | Garden | Place | St | St | ||||||||
Garden | Market |
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, published information and company data | 56 |
* Based on 30 ft. zones |
4 Village Summaries
57
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Carnaby - in numbers
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £1,212.3m | £1,437.7m |
Acquisitions | £4.5m | £17.9m |
Capital expenditure | £15.6m | £14.0m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -17.0% | -1.3% |
Equivalent yield | 4.2% (+ 28 bps) | 3.7% |
Reversion | £16.3m | £16.4m |
REVERSION (£m)
60.8 | Annualised current income | ||||
41.7 | 58.0 | 44.4 | ERV | ||
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
39%
of our portfolio1
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure | |||
24% | 38% | 32% | 6% |
169,000 | 173,000 | 274,000 | 68,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
carnaby.co.uk
follow carnabylondon
1. By value; wholly owned portfolio | 58 |
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Covent Garden - in numbers
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £840.8m | £1,036.5m |
Acquisitions | - | £20.0m |
Capital expenditure | £7.6m | £4.7m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -19.5% | -0.1% |
Equivalent yield | 3.6% (+ 19 bps) | 3.3% |
Reversion | £6.6m | £8.7m |
REVERSION (£m)
Annualised current income | |||||
28.8 | 35.4 | 30.3 | 39.0 | ERV | |
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
27%
of our portfolio1
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure | |||
37% | 29% | 15% | 19% |
201,000 | 131,000 | 89,000 | 137,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
sevendials.co.uk
follow 7dialslondon
1. By value; wholly owned portfolio | 59 |
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Chinatown - in numbers
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £700.6m | £843.9m |
Disposals | - | £9.1m |
Capital expenditure | £7.9m | £8.9m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -17.8% | +0.8% |
Equivalent yield | 3.8% (+ 26 bps) | 3.4% |
Reversion | £5.4m | £5.0m |
REVERSION (£m)
Annualised current income
ERV
24.7 | 30.1 | 26.8 | 31.8 |
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
22%
of our portfolio1
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure | |||
62% | 20% | 4% | 14% |
209,000 | 82,000 | 25,000 | 103,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
chinatown.co.uk
follow chinatownlondon
1. By value; wholly owned portfolio | 60 |
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Soho -
in numbers
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £258.7m | £314.1m |
Acquisitions | - | £3.5m |
Capital expenditure | £5.2m | £1.2m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -21.3% | +3.1% |
Equivalent yield | 3.8% (+ 23 bps) | 3.5% |
Reversion | £0.9m | £1.4m |
REVERSION (£m)
Annualised current income
ERV
10.4 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 12.1 |
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
8%
of our portfolio1
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure |
39% 26% 19% 16%
65,000 | 45,000 | 41,000 | 37,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
thisissoho.co.uk
follow thisissoho
11.. ByByvalue;value;combinedwholly ownedportfolioportfolioincluding our 50% share of property held in joint venture | 6161 |
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Fitzrovia - in numbers
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £125.0m | £152.0m |
Acquisitions | - | £5.6m |
Capital expenditure | £1.1m | £2.1m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -18.5% | -2.4% |
Equivalent yield | 3.8% (+ 19 bps) | 3.4% |
Reversion | £1.2m | £1.1m |
REVERSION (£m)
Annualised current income
ERV
4.3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 6.0 |
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
4%
of our portfolio1
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure | |||
48% | 16% | 8% | 28% |
52,000 | 15,000 | 10,000 | 27,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
1. By value; wholly owned portfolio | 62 |
Appendix: 4 Village Summaries
Longmartin - in numbers1
Sept 2020 | Sept 2019 | |
Valuation | £175.0m | £209.0m |
Capital expenditure | £1.4m | £3.7m |
Capital value return (L-f-L) | -16.9% | -8.5% |
Equivalent yield | 4.1% (+ 9 bps) | 3.9% |
Reversion | £2.6m | £2.5m |
REVERSION (£m)
Annualised current income
ERV
6.2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 10.0 |
Sept 20 | Sept 19 |
£175.0m
Food, beverage | Retail | Offices | Residential |
and leisure |
18% | 26% | 42% | 14% |
46,000 | 64,000 | 102,000 | 55,000 |
sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. | sq. ft. |
theyardscoventgarden.co.uk
follow theyardscoventgarden
1. All numbers except square footage represent our 50% share | 63 |
5 Principal Risks
64
Appendix: 5 Principal risks
External factors
Macroeconomic factors
- Potential causes
- Macroeconomic shocks or events.
- Uncertainty on trading and other relationships with the EU from 1 January 2021:
- Short-termdisruption to the UK economy.
- Upward cost pressures.
- Supply chain disruption.
- Longer-termCovid 19 impacts:
- Higher inflation.
- Taxation increases.
- Recessionary environment.
- Higher unemployment.
- Consequences
- Lower consumer confidence/spending.
- Reduced visitor numbers.
- Reduced business confidence and investment.
- Brexit-relatedoccupier supply chain disruption and higher import costs.
- Reduced tenant profitability/increased occupier financial distress/tenant default.
- Reduced occupier demand.
- Higher vacancy.
- Downward pressure on rents.
- Reduced rental income and declining earnings.
- Reduced ERV, capital values and NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Risk of loan covenant breaches.
Decline in the UK real estate market
- Potential causes
- Changes to political landscape.
- Increasing bond yields and cost of finance.
- Reduced availability of capital and finance.
- Lower relative attractiveness of property compared with other asset classes.
- Changing overseas investor perception of UK real estate.
- Covid-19accelerating structural changes in the retail and office sectors.
- Consequences
- Reduced property values.
- Decrease in NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Risk of loan covenant breaches.
- Ability to raise new debt funding curtailed.
65
Appendix: 5 Principal risks
External factors (cont'd)
Changes in regulatory environment
- Potential causes
- Unfavourable changes to national or local planning and licensing policies.
- Tenants acting outside of planning/licensing consents.
- Growing complexity and level of sustainability regulation.
- Increased stakeholder focus on ESG.
- Regulation/guidance in respect of social distancing both within our portfolio and in connection with domestic and international travel for the duration of the pandemic.
- Consequences
- Ability to maximise the growth prospects of our assets restricted.
- Reduced tenant profitability/increased occupier financial distress.
- Reduced occupier demand.
- Increased costs.
- Reduced earnings.
- Decrease in property values and NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Reduction of spending/footfall in our areas.
66
Appendix: 5 Principal risks
Geographic concentration
Reduction in spending and/or footfall in our areas
- Potential causes
- Pandemics.
- Macro-economicconditions including recession, declining disposable income, unemployment, etc.
- Fall in the popularity of the West End and particularly our areas leading to decreasing visitor numbers.
- Changes in consumer tastes, habits and spending power.
- Terrorism or the threat of terrorism.
- Competing destinations.
- Possibility that Covid-19 induces permanent structural changes in frequency of visits and spending behaviour.
- UK plans to end tax-free shopping for overseas visitors.
- Consequences
- Lower sales densities.
- Reduced tenant profitability/increased occupier financial distress/tenant default.
- Reduced occupier demand.
- Higher vacancy.
- Reduced rental income and declining earnings.
- Reduced ERV, capital values and NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Risk of loan covenant breaches.
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Appendix: 5 Principal risks
Market and consumer
Significant increase in tenant default/failure
- Potential causes
- Decline in turnover (see Reduction in spending and/or footfall in our areas).
- Increasing cost base and supply chain disruption (see macroeconomic factors).
- Occupiers with limited Balance Sheet capacity are less likely to sustain a prolonged period of operational losses.
- Wind down of Government Covid-19 support, including business rates relief which ceases at the end of March 2021.
- Possibility that Covid-19 induces permanent structural changes in frequency of visits and spending behaviour.
- Economic headwinds including recession, declining disposable income, unemployment.
- Consequences
- Lower sales densities, reduced tenant profitability.
- Reduced income and earnings.
- Increased vacancy and related costs.
- Frictional cost of re-letting.
- Reduced ERV, capital values and NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Risk of loan covenant breaches.
We are unable to adapt to tenant demands/shifts in market offer by competitors, or we fail to anticipate changes in rental growth
- Potential causes
- Rapidly changing occupier requirements.
- Structural changes in consumer behaviour and spending.
- Occupiers becoming increasing cost conscious leading to:
- reduced space requirements and consequential lower occupational costs, including investment in fit-out; and
- an increased reluctance to contribute fully towards building service charge and insurance costs.
- Increased vacancy across the West End.
- Shaftesbury tenant proposition becomes uncompetitive.
- Flexible working could change office requirements.
- Consequences
- Reduced income and earnings.
- Increased vacancy and related costs.
- Additional capital expenditure requirements to compete on fit out standards.
- Pressure on ERV, leading to decline in capital values and NAV (amplified by gearing).
- Risk of loan covenant breaches.
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Appendix: 5 Principal risks
Governance, data and internal control
Financing risk
- Potential causes
- Reduction in income or values as a result of other principal risks.
- Changing lease structure landscape to more flexible leases and/or risk sharing.
- Consequences
- Loan covenant breaches or reliance on waivers from lenders.
- Insufficient liquidity to meet obligations.
- Ability to raise new finance or refinance existing debt may be impaired.
- Forced disposal of properties.
Climate risk
- We recognise that climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy will present significant long-term risks and opportunities for our business.
- Failure to identify and mitigate risks could lead to disruption to our operations, damage to our reputation, and inhibit our ability to attract visitors and occupiers, which ultimately could lead to a reduction in the value of our portfolio.
- We are continuing to de-carbonise our portfolio and will incur additional costs in the low energy refurbishment of buildings.
- Our key risk indicators are: energy and carbon emissions, waste consumption, EPC ratings and green building certification.
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Disclaimer
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections and opinions ("forward-looking statements") with respect to Shaftesbury PLC (the Company) and the Group's financial condition, results of its operations and business, and certain plans, strategy, objectives, goals and expectations with respect to these items and the economies and markets in which the Group operates. Forward-looking statements are sometimes, but not always, identified by their use of a date in the future or such words as "anticipates", "aims", "due", "continue", "could", "forecast", "may", "should", "expects", "believes", "intends", "plans", "project", "targets", "will", "goal" or "estimates" or, in each case, their negative or other variations or comparable terminology.
Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. By their very nature forward-looking statements are inherently unpredictable, speculative and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may notoccur in the future. Many of these assumptions, risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond the Group's ability to control or estimate precisely. There are a number of such factors that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.
Any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, Shaftesbury PLC speak only as of the date they are made and no representation or warranty is given in relation to them, including as to their completeness or accuracy or the basis on which they were prepared. Except as required by its legal or statutory obligations, Shaftesbury PLC does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in its expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Information contained in this presentation relating to Shaftesbury PLC or its share price or the yield of its shares, should not be relied upon as an indicator of future performance. Nothing contained in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast or an invitation to deal in the securities of the Company.
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Shaftesbury plc published this content on 21 December 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 24 December 2020 08:28:05 UTC