CPH CHEMIE + PAPIER

CPHN
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CPH Chemie + Papier : 1H21 Result update (pdf)

07/26/2021 | 04:48am

This report has been issued for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of third parties regarding revenues, earnings and business developments. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.

This report is not a prospectus within the meaning of art. 652a CO or art. 27 et seq. of the SIX Listing Rules. This document is neither an advice on investment, nor a recommendation or invitation for purchasing, holding or selling any securities, money market instruments or derivatives and no investment decision should be based on this report. This report speaks as of its date. Neither CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG nor Dynamics Group AG assume any responsibility to up-date the report.

CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG

Switzerland | Industrial Goods & Services

1H21 Result update

23 July 2021

Company Data

Price:

CHF 65.00

Market Cap:

CHF 390.0mn

Free Float:

67.6%

No. of shares:

6.0mn

Avg. traded volume (30 day):

951

Bloomberg:

CPHN SW

Reuters:

CPHN-EB

ISIN:

CH0001624714

Source: SIX Swiss Exchange and Bloomberg

Share Price Development

150

125

100

75

50

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

CPH

SPI

Source: Bloomberg

Key Financial Data

2019

2020

2021E

2022E

Sales

524.7

445.2

485.6

514.6

EBITDA %

16.8%

12.4%

7.4%

12.5%

EBIT %

10.8%

5.5%

0.7%

6.2%

Net Margin %

9.2%

10.5%

0.2%

4.2%

Basic EPS

8.06

7.82

0.13

3.63

Diluted EPS

8.06

7.82

0.13

3.63

DPS

1.80

1.80

1.80

1.80

Equity Ratio %

62.6%

66.8%

65.5%

66.1%

Capex

(22.0)

(13.5)

(46.4)

(36.2)

P/Sales

0.8x

0.9x

0.9x

0.8x

P/E

8.7x

8.8x

NM

18.9x

EV/EBITDA

4.8x

7.5x

11.0x

6.5x

Source: Research Dynamics, Company data

Next Events

Investora Equity Conference in

15 Sep 2021

Zurich

ZKB Equity Conference

3/4 Nov 2021

Analysts

Doris Rudischhauser dru@researchdynamics.ch

Alexandre Müller amu@researchdynamics.ch

Tel: +41 43 268 3232

www.researchdynamics.ch

Capex plans in place to tap emerging opportunities

Chemistry and Packaging divisions continue to perform well

CPH reported 5.1% YoY growth (+5.7% excluding currency impact) in net sales to CHF 243.7mn. The Chemistry and the Packaging Divisions continue to perform well and offset the weak performance in the Paper Division. The group EBITDA declined by 40.4% YoY to CHF 20mn largely due to a significant drop in the EBITDA of the Paper division. Group EBITDA margin declined 630bps to 8.2%. Group EBIT declined by 67.8% YoY to CHF 5.7mn (1H20: CHF 17.8mn) and the corresponding margin compressed to 2.4% (1H20: 7.7%). On account of significant margin pressure, the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 78.3% to CHF 5.8mn.

Segmental performance

Paper: Net sales declined 3.2% YoY (excluding currency: -3.1%) to CHF 105.4mn. The division's 1H21 sales volume was higher as compared to 1H20 when the machines were kept idle due to the imposition of lockdown measures. However, persisting over capacities dragged the paper prices lower, thereby pressuring the realizations and effectively net sales. Consequently, the division's EBITDA loss came in at CHF 1.5mn (CHF 12.5mn), whereas EBIT came down to a negative CHF 10.1mn (CHF 2.3mn). While the end-user demand recovered, the sharp jump in the recovered paper prices to their historical highs has had an adverse impact on raw material cost. Consequently, EBIT declined significantly, despite optimization and cost-saving initiatives.

Packaging: Net sales improved 4.7% YoY (excluding currency: +3.8%) to CHF 90.8mn

(1H20: CHF 86.7mn). Demand for packaging material suffered slightly compared to 1H20 due to the absence of the usual seasonal flu, which resulted in lower demand for medicines and effectively packaging products from pharmaceutical companies. The division reported lower volume in Europe and North America, however, it was more than offset by double-digit growth in LATAM and Asia. EBITDA declined 28.4% YoY to CHF 11.5mn, and margins compressed by ~600bps to 12.7%. EBIT dropped by 35.5% to CHF 8.4mn and the margin contracted by 570bps YoY to 9.3%. Higher raw material and transportation costs and the delay in passing on the costs resulted in lower profitability.

Chemistry: Net sales increased 31.1% YoY (excluding currency impact: +36.7%) to CHF 47.5mn due to improvement in demand. The growth was aided by a surge in the demand for molecular sieves, in which the company has developed a leading position through its innovative offerings. The molecular sieve powders (above all medical oxygen) also showed encouraging trends, while the demand from the energy industry has yet to pick up to pre- pandemic levels. EBITDA went up ~100% to CHF 9.8mn (CHF 4.9mn) and EBIT to CHF 7.4mn (CHF 2.5). Both EBITDA and EBIT margins improved 700bps and 870bs to 20.8% and 15.7%, respectively.

Cautious outlook for 2021

The world economy is expected to rebound in 2021, however, the economic revival may have a varying degree of impact on each division, and specifically, the demand-supply equation should dictate the fortunes in our view. The management too has provided a cautious outlook for FY2021e that primarily reflects challenges surrounding the Paper Division.

Paper: With the closure of 3.3mn tons of graphic printing paper capacity over 2020-21, the paper prices may inch up in 2H21. However, this will not be sufficient to offset the elevated raw material prices. Accordingly, for FY2021 the division's net sales are expected to be slightly higher than the 2020 level, but EBIT is expected to be negative.

Packaging: In response to the jump in raw material prices, the company will be gradually adjusting the product prices up. The company is also looking at expanding its product offerings in the overseas market and setting up a new coating plant in Brazil, which is expected to be commissioned in 2Q22. For FY2021, the company expects the division's net sales to be slightly above and EBIT margin below its 2020 levels.

Chemistry: The company expects the size and pace of the global economic growth to dictate the business trends in the Chemistry Division. The division is expected to clock higher net sales and double-digit EBIT margin.

Important disclosures are on the last page of this report. CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG is a research client of Research Dynamics. The equity research reports are prepared for information purposes only.

CPH 2

Switzerland | Industrial Goods & Services

Group: Group net sales are expected to increase as a whole, while EBIT is expected to be substantially below at single-digit figure. However, the group results are expected to come slightly positive.

Other Highlights

Expansion at Chemistry division: CPH's Chemistry Division, Zeochem, is set to expand the capacity of two of its molecular sieve product lines to meet the growing demand. The expansion would entail an investment of just over CHF 10mn and will help further consolidate Zeochem's leading technological position in the high-quality molecular sieves market. The expansion of the existing capacities is expected to be completed by mid-2022e.

Sustainability offerings: The Paper Division is at the forefront of offering sustainable products. The division is gradually reducing the use of fossil fuel and was able to cut CO2 emissions by ~90% over 2013-2020. By 2021, it will be the first company globally to offer carbon-neutral paper. This is expected to be a key differentiating factor in driving the demand for its paper products in the medium-to-long term for the company.

Mid-TermFinancial Targets: Notwithstanding short-term cautious outlook, management has confirmed the following mid-term financial targets:

  • Organic net sales growth of >3% per annum
  • EBITDA Margin >12% (from >10% previously)
  • Equity ratio >50%
  • Liquidity of at-least CHF 30-50mn
  • Operating investment of CHF20-25mn per annum

Valuation and conclusion

We value CPH using DCF and relative valuation techniques. Our intrinsic value of CHF 91.3 per share, which is similar to our previous target price (CHF 91.3), implying an upside of ~40% from current levels. For relative valuation, since the Group operates in three entirely different divisions, we compare each of CPH's divisions with different sets of relevant industry peers. We have employed three parameters - EV/EBITDA, P/S, and P/E - to analyze the relative valuation of the Group. CPH currently trades at a P/S multiple of 0.8x (FY2022E), a significant 43% discount to the weighted average multiple of division peers.

The global economy is expected to recover gradually from 2021e, with the IMF forecasting 6% growth in 2021. While this bodes well for the business in general, in the short term, we expect the uncertainty to continue. Specifically, the Paper Division is expected to be under pressure due to an unfavorable operating environment. However, the Packaging and Chemical Divisions are expected to be the key beneficiary of a revival in the economic activity and should offset the expected weakness in the Paper Division to some extent. Specifically, we believe the Packaging Division to emerge even stronger in the ongoing economic revival as it has all positive levers in place to capture upcoming opportunities. Equally complimenting it will be the Chemistry Division which is expected to benefit from the emerging trends that the company is looking to tap through timely capacity expansion. Operations aside, management's focus on offering sustainable solutions and simplifying the corporate structure should improve investor sentiment going forward. Moreover, we expect the cost optimization initiatives to offer support to the company's stock price.

CPH 3

Switzerland | Industrial Goods & Services

Exhibit 1: CPH - Comparison with division peers

Company

EV/EBITDA

P/S

P/E

3 year

3 year

3 year

average

CY2021E

CY2022E

average

CY2021E

CY2022E

average

CY2021E

CY2022E

CPH Chemie & Paper

5.5x

10.3x

6.7x

0.9x

0.8x

0.8x

9.9x

118.6x

19.9x

Paper peers:

Holmen

17.9x

17.9x

18.0x

2.8x

4.0x

3.9x

15.5x

30.7x

31.4x

Stora Enso

9.4x

8.7x

8.5x

1.0x

1.4x

1.4x

12.6x

13.5x

14.4x

Altri

8.1x

6.2x

6.5x

1.6x

1.4x

1.4x

14.3x

8.8x

9.5x

Metsa Board

10.6x

8.0x

8.3x

1.2x

1.7x

1.6x

14.4x

12.6x

13.8x

UPM-Kymmene

8.9x

11.2x

10.8x

1.5x

2.0x

1.9x

15.9x

18.4x

18.7x

Norkse Scogindustrier

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

James Cropper

15.9x

0.2x

0.2x

1.1x

0.0x

0.0x

36.0x

48.3x

24.1x

OJI Holdings

7.9x

NM

NM

0.4x

0.4x

0.4x

13.0x

7.7x

8.6x

Chemistry peers:

Honeywell Int.

14.4x

20.1x

18.1x

3.3x

4.6x

4.3x

23.0x

29.0x

25.5x

Clariant

12.3x

NA

NA

1.4x

NA

NA

41.2x

NA

NA

Arkema

6.2x

7.3x

7.2x

0.8x

0.9x

0.9x

14.9x

14.2x

13.2x

WR Grace & Co.

15.4x

11.9x

10.6x

2.2x

2.4x

2.3x

71.9x

18.4x

15.2x

Packaging peers:

Meadvestwaco

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

MacFarlane Group

9.1x

0.1x

0.1x

0.7x

0.0x

0.0x

16.5x

12.5x

11.8x

Gerresheimer

11.6x

11.8x

10.7x

1.7x

1.8x

1.7x

20.8x

19.4x

16.9x

West Pharmaceutical Services

32.0x

35.4x

31.9x

7.3x

10.3x

9.5x

52.6x

52.7x

48.9x

Convertidora Industrial

4.3x

2.9x

2.6x

0.2x

0.2x

0.1x

11.5x

NA

NA

PSB Industries

4.5x

NA

NA

0.4x

NA

NA

15.0x

NA

NA

Astrapak Ltd

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

Bilcare Ltd

47.5x

NA

NA

0.1x

NA

NA

2.3x

NA

NA

Median

10.6x

8.7x

8.5x

1.2x

1.5x

1.5x

15.5x

18.4x

15.2x

High

47.5x

35.4x

31.9x

7.3x

10.3x

9.5x

71.9x

52.7x

48.9x

Low

4.3x

0.1x

0.1x

0.1x

0.0x

0.0x

2.3x

7.7x

8.6x

Premium (disc) to peers

(48%)

19%

(21%)

(28%)

(45%)

(48%)

(36%)

546%

31%

Source: Thomson Eikon (as on 22nd July 2021)

Exhibit 2: CPH - Comparison with weighted average of division peers

EV/EBITDA

P/S

P/E

3 year

3 year

3 year

average

CY2021E CY2022E

average CY2021E

CY2022E

average

CY2021E

CY2022E

Weighted peer multiples

10.3x

8.6x

8.2x

1.1x

1.4x

1.4x

17.4x

16.0x

15.2x

CPH

5.5x

10.3x

6.7x

0.9x

0.8x

0.8x

9.9x

118.6x

19.9x

Premium (disc) to peers

(46%)

21%

(18%)

(21%)

(41%)

(43%)

(43%)

643%

30%

Source: Thomson Eikon (as on 22nd July 2021)

145.6
1.1
0.1
52.5
30.0
4.8
351.2
(7.9)
68.9 59.2
69.1 77.8
8.9 18.0

CPH 4

Switzerland | Industrial Goods & Services

DETAILED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

Income Statement

CHF mn (except per share)

FY16

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21E

FY22E

Chemistry sales

69

75

79

78

73

85

90

Paper sales

246

264

301

293

210

225

240

Packaging sales

119

130

153

153

162

175

185

Net Sales

435

470

534

525

445

486

515

Cost of Sales

(267)

(309)

(311)

(298)

(255)

(313)

(310)

Gross profit

168

161

222

227

190

173

205

Personnel cost

(89)

(84)

(92)

(93)

(93)

(94)

(95)

Outsourced maintenance/repairs

(18)

(17)

(19)

(20)

(17)

(18)

(19)

Other operating expense

(25)

(26)

(28)

(26)

(25)

(25)

(26)

Total operating costs

(131)

(127)

(139)

(139)

(135)

(137)

(140)

EBITDA

37

34

83

88

55

36

64

Depreciation

(31)

(30)

(30)

(30)

(29)

(31)

(31)

Amortisation

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Operating profit (EBIT)

before impairment

6

3

52

57

25

3

32

Impairment

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating profit (EBIT)

6

3

52

57

25

3

32

Finance costs

(6)

(8)

(7)

(6)

(5)

(5)

(3)

Finance income

1

2

1

0

0

0

0

Total financial income

(expenses)

(5)

(7)

(6)

(6)

(5)

(5)

(3)

Profit before taxes (before

exceptional items)

1

(4)

46

51

20

(1)

29

Non-operating items

(4)

23

0

1

19

4

0

Income taxes

(4)

(3)

(3)

(3)

8

(2)

(7)

Profit attributable to the

parent

(8)

16

42

48

47

0.8

22

Basic EPS

(1.3)

2.7

7.1

8.1

7.8

0.1

3.6

Diluted EPS

(1.3)

2.7

7.1

8.1

7.8

0.1

3.6

DPS

0.7

0.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

Source: Research Dynamics, Company data

Balance Sheet

CHF mn

FY16

Assets

Non-current assets

PPE

384.6

Intangible assets

3.1

Long-term financial assets

10.0

Long-term financial receivables

0.0

Other non-current assets

52.6

Total non-current assets

450.3

Current assets

Inventories

Trade accounts receivable

Other receivables

Prepaid expenses and accrued

income

4.8

Short-term financial receivables

0.1

Liquid funds and Securities

70.4

Total assets

672.4

Shareholders' Equity and Liabilities Share capital Capital reserves

Profit reserves

Net result for the year

Non-current liabilities

Long-term financial liabilities

Pension scheme liabilities

Other long-term liabilities

Long-term provisions

Current liabilities

FY17

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21E

FY22E

384.1

376.1

366.4

352.6

362.4

366.6

4.8

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.4

5.3

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

56.4

55.3

54.0

64.8

64.8

64.8

455.3

447.2

436.0

432.9

442.6

446.6

69.6

78.5

78.3

83.2

83.3

72.1

72.4

52.9

59.9

63.4

13.1

14.0

17.2

17.2

17.2

7.0

9.2

8.6

6.7

6.7

6.7

0.0

100.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

80.2

89.0

93.1

116.3

93.9

96.2

697.6

800.5

702.7

704.2

703.4

713.5

30.0

12.0

12.0

1.2

1.2

1.2

0.8

15.0

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

346.4

336.2

375.2

418.5

454.6

444.5

16.0

42.3

48.3

46.9

0.8

21.8

143.5

120.5

116.8

109.7

106.0

102.3

0.6

1.3

0.7

1.2

1.2

1.2

0.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

51.8

50.0

47.5

31.5

31.5

31.5

Trade accounts payable

53.1

69.5

69.7

66.3

56.8

69.9

72.9

Other payables

8.3

3.3

4.1

3.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

Accrued liabilities and deferred

income

16.5

17.2

20.0

16.3

16.8

16.8

16.8

Short-term financial liabilities

7.0

9.8

125.8

5.9

8.1

7.8

7.5

Short-term provisions

7.6

5.6

1.2

3.8

3.3

3.3

3.3

Total liabilities

291.6

301.3

393.3

261.4

232.4

241.5

240.5

Total equity and liab.

672.4

697.6

800.5

702.7

704.2

703.4

713.5

Source: Research Dynamics, Company data

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Disclaimer

CPH Chemie + Papier Holding AG published this content on 26 July 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 26 July 2021 08:47:08 UTC.

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