Fitch Ratings has affirmed
In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following
'B-'/'RR6'.
The Rating Outlook remains Negative.
The affirmation of Medline's 'B+' IDR primarily reflects the company's steady performance in the face of challenging macroeconomic conditions that have produced margin pressure and slower cash conversion. Medline has been able to grow sales volumes and increase prices for certain of its products during the past year resulting in some expansion of gross margin.
As noted in Fitch's
Key Rating Drivers
Leading Market Position for Medical/Surgical Products: Medline is a market leader in the manufacturing and distribution of medical/surgical products in the
Consistently Solid Cash Flow: A combination of strong persistency of existing customers and the ability to effectively penetrate both the acute care and post-acute care health care market with private label products continues to produce a high level of profitability and cash flow, albeit somewhat constrained by inflationary pressures. Investments in new and existing capacity are expected to remain relatively stable over the forecast horizon.
Leverage Profile is High: A year after the acquisition of Medline by
Fitch's calculation of gross leverage includes an amount of mortgage debt secured principally by Medline's manufacturing and distribution facilities. Such debt is treated as a having a higher priority of claim than all other senior secured and senior unsecured debt.
Governance and Financial Policy: In its inaugural coverage of Medline, Fitch identified two critical assumptions underpinning its forecast for Medline: 1) the ability of the Mills family and the Sponsors to work together effectively and 2) to reduce debt over the near to medium term. Fitch continues to believe these assumptions are valid because it will lead to the highest value proposition for all parties. However, the decision to prioritize the use of FCF for management compensation instead of debt reduction heightens the weight of this assumption to Fitch's medium-term forecast. Any signs that Medline no longer has the ability or intent to reduce debt towards its negative sensitivities will heighten downgrade pressure.
Derivation Summary
Medline's 'B+'/Negative Long-Term IDR reflects its strong position in the large and stable market for medical/surgical products. The company has established a wide array of branded products for sale to acute care, post-acute care, physician office and surgery center markets. The company's vertical integration of manufacturing capabilities, distribution network and global sourcing relationships differentiates Medline from its principal competition:
Private label products comprise a majority of Medline's revenue and gross profits compared to significantly lower amounts for CAH and OMI. While OMI, CAH and MCK focus on parts of the acute care, post-acute care, physician office and surgery center markets, only CAH has a comparable segment focus and level of price competitiveness. The company's EBITDA margins are significantly higher than other distributors (including
The IDRs of
Key Assumptions
Revenue increases at a CAGR of approximately 4-5% over the period 2022-2025 (the forecast period);
Adjusted EBITDA margins are maintained between 11%-12% over the forecast period;
Working capital changes represent a use of cash of approximately
Capex of approximately
FCF is used principally to fund MPU payments in 2022 and 2023 and thereafter to reduce debt; discretionary debt reduction is used while maintaining cash balances of at least
Secured mortgage debt of
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
Expectation of sustaining gross debt/EBITDA (including secured mortgage debt) at or below 5.0x by the end of fiscal 2023;
FCF of approximately
Operational strength demonstrated by customer retention and market share growth leading to increasing CFO;
Expectation of EBITDA margins remaining above 13% and FCF/debt remains consistently above 10%.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
Expectation of sustaining gross debt/EBITDA (including secured mortgage debt) at or above 6.0x by the end of fiscal 2023;
FCF is not used principally for debt reduction;
Total revenue growth rate declines to low-to-mid-single digits as a result of customer turnover and price concessions;
Expectation of EBITDA margins falling below 10% and FCF/debt remaining consistently below 5%.
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from '
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Ample Liquidity: Fitch expects Medline's cash flow from operations together with its revolving credit facilities will be sufficient to fund its long-term and short-term capital expenditures, working capital and debt service requirements. The company's revolving credit facility has a financial covenant that provides ample room to borrow in the event of liquidity stress (7.5x, excluding the company's CMBS debt).
Cash and cash equivalents needs are expected to range between
Debt Maturities: The amortization of the term loan B is expected to be approximately
Rating Recovery Assumptions
Fitch estimates an enterprise value (EV) on a going-concern basis of approximately
The post-reorganization EBITDA estimate is approximately 35% lower than Fitch's 2022 adjusted EBITDA estimate. Fitch's estimate of the post-reorganization EBITDA is premised on an EBITDA approximating pre-pandemic levels, which assumes a significantly lower base of revenues and, therefore, EBITDA generation. A bankruptcy scenario could arise as a result of disruption to 3rd party manufacturing services and key supplier relationships along with decreasing prices for Medline's goods and services and an inability to timely reduce its expenses sufficiently to offset a material adverse effect on its business. In this scenario, Fitch expects Medline would need to reduce the size of its operations to offset the loss of revenue.
The 7.5x multiple employed for Medline reflects acquisition multiples of healthcare distributors and trading ranges of Mozart's peer group (CAH, OMI, MCK), which have fluctuated between 6x-12x in the recent past.
Instrument ratings and RRs for Medline's debt instruments are based on Fitch's Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instruments Ratings Criteria. Fitch includes Medline's CMBS debt in its waterfall (approximately
The waterfall analysis also includes secured credit facilities and notes as follows: a cash flow revolving credit facility (assumed to be fully drawn on
Medline's senior unsecured debt of
Issuer Profile
Medline is the largest
Summary of Financial Adjustments
Fitch adjusted reported EBITDA to remove non-recurring costs, inventory normalization adjustments and non-operating income/expense. In addition, for the forecast periods, Fitch's leverage metrics include CMBS debt.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG Considerations
Medline has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure, because of the challenge of managing financial policy and capital allocation objectives among the Mills family and the new major shareholders. This has a negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with other factors.
Medline has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Group Structure, because of its complex capital structure and use of secured mortgage debt to fund a material portion of the acquisition of the company. This has a negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with other factors.
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.
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