2020-11-24

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NBB.Stat

General information

Monthly business survey - November 2020

Business confidence drops back in November

  • After rising for six consecutive months, the business barometer has turned downwards in November.
  • The business climate has deteriorated in the trade sector in particular, more than wiping out last month's clear rebound, as well as in business-related services. The building industry also registered a decline. The manufacturing industry is the only sector to - narrowly - escape the prevailing gloom.

After the upturn seen in October, the economic situation has clearly weakened in the trade sector. The pessimism has fed through to all types of trade. Demand forecasts have collapsed, triggering an anticipated reduction in orders placed with suppliers. Job prospects are also shrinking too, albeit to a lesser extent.

In the business-related services sector, it has been expectations regarding general market demand that have fallen the most sharply. Entrepreneurs appear to take a more negative attitude about the future of their own business activity, the current level of which is also being assessed much less favourably given the time of the year.

In the building industry, too, all components of the indicator have fallen back, whether they concern recent developments with order books and use of equipment, appraisal of the current order book situation or demand forecasts.

As for the sixth - although modest - improvement in a row observed in the manufacturing industry, this is largely premised on a slightly more positive appraisal of total order books and on employment prospects that are picking up marginally.

The overall smoothed synthetic curve, which reflects the underlying cyclical trend, continues to rise.

Business survey indicators

Gross synthetic curve

Smoothed synthetic

curve1

October

November

Variation in

Variation in

2020

2020

points

Points

Manufacturing industry

-9.0

-8.0

1.0

4.4

Business-related services

-8.7

-24.0

-15.3

3.4

Building industry

-4.3

-12.1

-7.8

0.8

Trade

-14.5

-30.4

-15.9

0.0

Overall synthetic curve

-8.5

-12.1

-3.6

1.1

1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity. This implies that the overall smoothed indicator reflects recent developments more closely than the smoothed indicators per branch.

Source: NBB.

Communication

boulevard de Berlaimont 14

phone + 32 2 221 46 28

Company's number:

National Bank of Belgium Ltd.

BE-1000 BRUSSELS

www.nbb.be

0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

2

NOVEMBER 2020

CHART 1 - SYNTHETIC CURVES

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

20

10 NCS

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES

20

20

NS975

NS296

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40

-50

-50

-60

-60

-70

-70

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

BUILDING INDUSTRY

TRADE

20

20

NS707

10

10

NS914

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40

-50

-50

-60

-60

-70

-70

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series

Seasonally adjusted series

Source: NBB

Communication

boulevard de Berlaimont 14

phone + 32 2 221 46 28

Company's number:

National Bank of Belgium Ltd.

BE-1000 BRUSSELS

www.nbb.be

0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

3

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or

Adjusted series

Smoothed series

''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or

1980-2020

1

2020

2020

''lower than normal''(-).

Min.

Max.

Avg.

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Overall synthetic curve

- 36.1

+ 9.2

- 7.2

- 12.0

- 10.8

- 8.5

- 12.1

- 23.5

- 15.7

- 12.2

- 11.1

Manufacturing industry curve

- 36.0

+ 6.0

- 10.2

- 14.0

- 11.6

- 9.0

- 8.0

- 25.3

- 20.9

.

.

Assessment of total order books

- 57.7

+ 10.0

- 21.5

- 40.3

- 30.7

- 26.7

- 24.7

- 44.8

- 42.2

.

.

Assessment of level of stocks ²

- 12.9

+ 25.0

+ 5.8

- 6.0

- 4.1

- 9.2

- 8.6

+ 3.2

+ 0.7

.

.

Employment expectations

- 41.4

+ 8.0

- 8.6

- 9.6

- 11.3

- 10.7

- 8.7

- 21.0

- 17.4

.

.

Demand expectations

- 37.9

+ 15.0

- 4.9

- 12.3

- 8.6

- 7.9

- 7.3

- 19.8

- 16.0

.

.

Business-related services curve

- 62.1

+ 34.0

+ 9.4

- 5.8

- 9.2

- 8.7

- 24.0

- 13.3

- 9.9

.

.

Assessment of activity

- 71.6

+ 20.0

- 5.6

- 43.8

- 46.4

- 39.5

- 43.6

- 51.9

- 48.9

.

.

Activity expectations

- 70.7

+ 51.7

+ 21.8

+ 18.6

+ 13.8

+ 6.3

- 7.3

+ 4.3

+ 10.4

.

.

Market demand expectations

- 59.9

+ 45.0

+ 13.2

+ 7.9

+ 5.0

+ 7.1

- 21.0

- 5.1

+ 2.0

.

.

Building industry curve

- 39.0

+ 24.3

- 7.0

- 5.4

- 4.0

- 4.3

- 12.1

- 6.5

- 5.7

.

.

Trend in orders

- 52.0

+ 40.0

- 4.2

- 1.8

- 2.1

+ 0.8

- 8.6

- 4.8

- 3.6

.

.

Trend in equipment

- 38.4

+ 24.0

+ 1.6

- 7.5

- 2.0

- 0.8

- 5.7

- 4.1

- 3.8

.

.

Assessment of order books

- 74.0

+ 30.0

- 22.1

- 5.1

- 4.9

- 7.4

- 18.4

- 4.9

- 5.4

.

.

Demand expectations

- 39.0

+ 21.0

- 3.0

- 7.3

- 6.9

- 9.9

- 15.6

- 12.4

- 11.0

.

.

Trade curve

- 41.8

+ 16.0

- 2.7

- 23.4

- 26.3

- 14.5

- 30.4

- 23.1

- 23.1

.

.

Employment expectations

- 33.0

+ 18.0

+ 1.2

- 23.6

- 18.7

- 17.4

- 19.5

- 20.3

- 20.2

.

.

Demand expectations

- 56.0

+ 29.0

- 0.8

- 24.9

- 31.1

- 8.8

- 41.6

- 23.7

- 24.0

.

.

Intentions of placing orders

- 40.1

+ 15.0

- 7.6

- 21.7

- 29.2

- 17.3

- 30.1

- 25.9

- 24.7

.

.

  1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
  2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

Communication

boulevard de Berlaimont 14

phone +32 2 221 46 28

Company's number:

National Bank of Belgium Ltd.

BE-1000 BRUSSELS

www.nbb.be

0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

4

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or

Adjusted series

Smoothed series

''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or

1980-20201

2020

2020

''lower than normal''(-).

Min.

Max.

Avg.

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Manufacturing industry

Trend in production rate

- 53.0

+ 20.0

- 1.0

+ 7.2

- 0.2

+ 15.2

- 5.2

- 4.1

- 0.3

.

.

Trend in domestic orders

- 48.7

+ 16.0

- 7.8

- 7.5

- 14.7

- 1.5

- 12.0

- 20.0

- 15.7

.

.

Trend in export orders

- 56.3

+ 30.0

- 2.7

+ 11.2

+ 6.1

+ 15.7

+ 2.7

- 5.9

+ 0.4

.

.

Assessment of export order books

- 61.0

+ 10.0

- 22.9

- 37.6

- 33.3

- 21.6

- 26.7

- 43.7

- 41.3

.

.

Trend in prices

- 21.0

+ 24.0

+ 1.0

- 0.2

+ 6.8

+ 4.0

+ 2.9

- 5.3

- 3.3

.

.

Price expectations

- 24.0

+ 43.0

+ 6.5

+ 1.3

+ 3.8

+ 6.2

+ 4.4

- 3.3

- 1.2

.

.

Production capacity

(in percentage of the total production capacity)

70.1

84.6

78.9

-

-

76.7

-

Source: quarterly production capacity survey

Business-related services

Trend in activity

- 73.0

+ 37.0

+ 9.4

+ 4.4

- 4.8

+ 11.6

- 12.9

- 14.1

- 7.6

.

.

Trend in employment

- 49.4

+ 34.0

+ 6.6

+ 8.4

- 10.2

- 1.7

+ 2.6

- 22.6

- 16.5

.

.

Employment expectations

- 35.0

+ 48.0

+ 17.0

- 0.1

+ 10.0

+ 6.9

+ 1.6

- 3.0

+ 0.2

.

.

Trend in prices

- 15.8

+ 12.0

+ 1.8

- 2.0

- 3.7

- 3.7

- 2.7

- 4.3

- 4.4

.

.

Price expectations

- 13.0

+ 30.0

+ 6.7

+ 3.6

+ 4.9

+ 2.8

+ 4.4

+ 3.2

+ 3.5

.

.

Building industry

Trend in activity

- 66.6

+ 34.7

- 4.4

- 5.0

- 4.0

- 0.9

- 14.0

- 3.5

- 3.3

.

.

Trend in employment

- 38.0

+ 22.0

- 5.2

- 2.0

+ 2.9

- 3.1

- 3.1

- 2.0

- 2.0

.

.

Employment expectations

- 50.0

+ 30.0

- 4.5

+ 3.5

+ 10.3

+ 4.3

- 1.0

+ 0.4

+ 1.2

.

.

Trend in prices

- 27.1

+ 32.0

- 2.0

- 4.7

- 4.8

- 5.6

- 6.4

- 5.5

- 5.6

.

.

Price expectations

- 20.6

+ 46.0

+ 5.1

- 0.2

+ 2.0

- 2.3

- 3.6

- 1.1

- 1.1

.

.

Trade

Trend in sales

- 50.1

+ 43.0

- 0.7

- 7.6

- 13.0

- 6.4

- 17.6

- 7.1

- 7.3

.

.

Assessment of sales

- 50.0

+ 28.0

- 9.3

- 26.7

- 15.7

- 3.0

- 8.0

- 24.9

- 21.4

.

.

Assessment of level of stocks ²

- 12.9

+ 38.1

+ 12.2

+ 7.3

+ 9.3

+ 5.4

+ 7.2

+ 17.1

+ 13.0

.

.

Trend in prices

- 23.5

+ 50.0

+ 1.7

- 9.6

- 23.5

+ 10.8

- 10.7

- 7.8

- 10.4

.

.

Price expectations

- 14.2

+ 66.2

+ 11.0

+ 1.3

+ 4.0

+ 11.2

- 14.2

- 0.4

+ 0.2

.

.

  1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
  2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.

Communication

boulevard de Berlaimont 14

phone +32 2 221 46 28

Company's number:

National Bank of Belgium Ltd.

BE-1000 BRUSSELS

www.nbb.be

0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

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National Bank of Belgium published this content on 24 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 24 November 2020 14:30:04 UTC