Polish GDP jumped a seasonally adjusted 11% y/y in the second quarter after retreating 1.3% y/y in January-March, Poland’s statistics office GUS said in a preliminary reading on
The reading is an upward revision of 0.3pp versus the flash estimate published in mid-August. The all-time high reading sees off Poland’s COVID-19 (coronavirus) induced recession for good, driven by accelerating household consumption and investment, mainly by small and medium-sized companies.
That said, the steep gain was predictable, as measured against the recession’s worst point a year earlier. It now sets
“We revise our 2021 growth forecast up by 0.5pp to 5.3%,” Erste said in a comment on the GUS figures.
Major components of economic growth recorded steep y/y expansion in the second quarter, the breakdown of the data shows. Household consumption grew an unadjusted 13.3% y/y in the first quarter, GUS data show. That is a major pick up from a gain of just 0.2% y/y in Q1.
Investment also accelerated growth, adding 5% y/y in the second quarter after growing 1.3% y/y in January-March.
“Among medium and large companies, investment is growing dynamically, supported by a very good financial situation of enterprises. Investment financed from the central budget and by local government is falling, which is partly related to the transitional period between the old and the new budget perspective,”
Overall, domestic demand expanded 12.8% y/y versus a gain of 1% y/y in the first quarter, GUS said.
In unadjusted terms, Poland’s GDP expanded 11.1% y/y in Q2 versus a fall of 0.9% y/y the preceding quarter, GUS data also showed. GUS thus adjusted the reading upward by 0.2pp.
In quarterly terms, economic growth grew an adjusted 2.1% in April-June (flash: +1.9% q/q) after a gain of 1.3% q/q in the first quarter. There was no unadjusted q/q reading.
Poland’s GDP contracted 2.7% in 2020 in one of the shallowest recessions in
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