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What’s in store for 2021?

01/12/2021 | 10:43am

U.S. stocks are slightly up today, as investors await the political fate of Donald Trump and focus on the roll out of vaccines and the rise in cases of Covid-19 across the world.

Everybody is thinking about its strategy for 2021, with most expecting markets to continue rising, boosted by the rollout of vaccines and fresh government spending.

However, the massive vaccination campaigns implemented by various countries was expected to quickly put an end to a pandemic that recorded its first death exactly one year ago. But WHO's chief scientist, Soumya Swaminathan, says that global herd immunity will not be reached in 2021, as vaccines will not reach every part of the world in sufficient amounts before the end of the year.

This comes as new British variant is spreading throughout the world, with first cases recorded in Russia and Mexico. Because it is 60 to 70% more contagious, there are fears that it could spread fast.

BioNtech will make more than 2 billion doses available by the end of the year.

Yesterday, financial markets erased some of their gains at the beginning of the year, following relatively significant declines, such as the Nasdaq 100, which lost 1.55%.

Donald Trump and his vice-president Mike Pence had a conversation. POTUS will not step down before his term ends of his own free will, and Mike Pence will not use his constitutional powers to shorten his president's term. So Democrats will launch a second impeachment procedure, with a vote expected to take place tomorrow.

On markets, financiers are now supposed to have deployed their 2021 strategies. The least we can say is that the bets diverge. The veterans of the sector have the same questions as slightly enlightened individual investors. Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital), who was quoted in the Financial Times yesterday, thinks that we need to break out of traditional patterns to adapt to the changes in the stock market industry. He believes that the distinction between growth and low value stocks is no longer essential, natural or useful, especially in the complex world in which we are currently evolving and that if a stock has a low valuation, there is probably a good reason for this. However, the article also quotes Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO, who believes there is a worrisome valuation bubble and who bets on discounted stocks and emerging markets.

Romain Fournier
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