Delayed Quote. Delayed  - 12/03 04:19:00 pm
112291.59PTS +0.37%

A positive underlying trend

Mid-term Analysis published on 10/10/2019 | 10:23am
Economically, Brazil is struggling to recover. While unemployment remains stable at 11.8%,   a slight decline compared to the second quarter, the informal, unproductive economy is at its lowest level ever. Growth expectations are 0.8% for 2019 and 2.2% in 2020 after 1.1% in 2018. Despite this complex environment, the "equity market" performed ostentatiously, with 15% gains in local currency, or for an investor in dollars, an increase of 8%.

Over the past month, Ibovespa has had some ground (-1.7%). However, some values stand out, such as Marfrig Global Foods (food processing), which is advancing by 29% thanks to its export authorizations to China. Luiza Magazine (distributor) duplicates the same route (+22%), following good publications. On the other hand, public companies are falling sharply, with the image of Centrais Electricas (-20%), which posted exceptional performances in 2019.

Graphically, in daily data, prices move in a horizontal corridor bounded by 105   820 points, a historical level tested twice with, each time, a failure to access the ration. Nevertheless, the underlying trend remains positive, as evidenced by the upward moving averages complemented by the diagonal that has supported prices for 14 months.


Patrick Rejaunier
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