BRAZIL IBOVESPA : A positive underlying trend
Economically, Brazil is struggling to recover. While unemployment remains stable at 11.8%, a slight decline compared to the second quarter, the informal, unproductive economy is at its lowest level ever. Growth expectations are 0.8% for 2019 and 2.2% in 2020 after 1.1% in 2018. Despite this complex environment, the "equity market" performed ostentatiously, with 15% gains in local currency, or for an investor in dollars, an increase of 8%.
Over the past month, Ibovespa has had some ground (-1.7%). However, some values stand out, such as Marfrig Global Foods (food processing), which is advancing by 29% thanks to its export authorizations to China. Luiza Magazine (distributor) duplicates the same route (+22%), following good publications. On the other hand, public companies are falling sharply, with the image of Centrais Electricas (-20%), which posted exceptional performances in 2019.
Graphically, in daily data, prices move in a horizontal corridor bounded by 105 820 points, a historical level tested twice with, each time, a failure to access the ration. Nevertheless, the underlying trend remains positive, as evidenced by the upward moving averages complemented by the diagonal that has supported prices for 14 months.
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