By Kirk Maltais
--Soybeans for November delivery rose 0.5% to $12.28 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, in response to a slowing pace for the U.S. soybean harvest.
--Wheat for December delivery were virtually unchanged at $7.36 a bushel.
--Corn for December delivery fell 0.5% to $5.30 1/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Foot on the Brake: One factor providing support for soybeans today is the slowdown in harvesting reported this week by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The harvest is 60% done, up from a 4-year average of 55% but down from 73% at this point last year. Meanwhile, the corn harvest is now 51% complete, down from 57% at this point last year but up from a 4-year average of 41%.
Global View: For wheat, which also rose today, the driver is coming from strong demand globally, "on short supply for high protein wheat, and unfavorably dry weather across the U.S. Great Plains bias western and southern areas," said Terry Reilly of Futures International. In a new forecast, SovEcon sees the 2022 Russian wheat crop totaling 80.7 million metric tons, higher than 75.5 million tons in 2021 on a better weather outlook.
INSIGHTS
Tall Order: Soybean futures were also buoyed by strength in soyoil and soymeal. In the case of soy, the factors lifting futures are analyst forecasts that more soybeans need to be planted in the U.S. to meet demand from the renewable fuels industry - with one group calling for as much as 30 million acres over the next three years. S&P Global Platts forecasts that 40 billion pounds of soyoil will be needed to meet demand for renewable fuels after 2025, but in its latest supply and demand report, the USDA said that total U.S. soyoil production was only 25 billion pounds in the past marketing year.
Shortage Fears: Issues with skyrocketing fertilizer costs appear to be impacting Brazilian corn crop planting. "There are already unconfirmed reports of fertilizer shortages in Brazil, although I remain skeptical of the scope of those at this early date," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "Those shortages may become more pronounced though as we move into 2022 if we remain on the same trajectory." High fertilizer prices are impacting European planting, and may pressure the decisions of U.S. farmers if elevated prices continue.
Looking for Less: Ethanol stockpiles are expected to slip in the EIA's weekly report tomorrow, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. Analysts forecast inventories to land anywhere from 19.56 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, with the majority of analysts expecting inventories to come in on the lower end. Last week, the EIA reported inventories at 19.85 million barrels. Meanwhile, production may slightly rise, with analysts forecasting daily production anywhere from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.06 million barrels per day. Last week, production was assessed at 1.03 million barrels per day.
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m ET Thursday.
--The USDA will release its monthly livestock slaughter report at 3 p.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
10-19-21 1524ET
