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Europe in the face of populism

08/13/2019 | 07:26am
While the single currency has taken advantage of new lows since May 2017 to initiate a new attempt at a rebound, the European currency could now face political risks that threaten the health and integrity of Monetary Union.

Populism act 1: In Italy, the Vice-President of the Council and Minister of the Interior, Matteo Salvini, announced the end of the governing coalition that had been in power for 14 months and its intention to trigger new general elections. Where populism and popularity are one, the League, the far-right party he leads, has 38% of voting intentions. Former head of government Matteo Renzi proposes to all the other parties to unite to form an "institutional" government, a kind of republican front against the "extremist" risk.

Populism act 2. In the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson is trying to crack the unit of 27 by waving the red cloth of an exit without agreement as of October 31. However, when the British Prime Minister returns to school, he will have to pass Westminster, where the majority of MPs are opposed to a no deal, which could be catastrophic for the country's economy.

Populism act 3. On the other side of the Atlantic, Donald Trump promises new taxes on $300 billion of Chinese exports from September, a bad signal for global growth and the European trade balance, while continuing to complain about the effect of his own policy on the cost of the greenback. The White House tenant is thus urging the Federal Reserve to lower the rent "quickly and strongly". However, following a first turn of events in 11 years at the end of July, James Bullard (FED Saint-Louis) estimates that rates are currently in the "right range".

Graphically, the Euro is moving away from its recent lows with a technical reaction and thus offers us a new opportunity for rebound sales. Under 1.1271, even 1.1399, we aim for a return to contact of 1.1071 USD.
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