Delayed Quote. Delayed  - 06/18 10:19:52 am
73.66USD +1.04%

Oil: No reaction to the new situation in the Middle East

10/18/2019 | 02:46am
While the resurgence of geopolitical frictions in the Middle East is driven by the oil markets, it must be noted that operators do not seem to be deciding to move away from their waiting position. This lack of initiative implies a lateralisation of prices. More prosaically, the market is still in search of a powerful catalyst to get started On the geopolitical front, observers’s attention is now focused on North Syrian territory since the launch of the “Fountain of Peace” operation by Turkey on 9 October, which aims to achieve a buffer zone of 30 kilometres deep at its dream border. If the Turkish offensive is followed closely, and for many reasons since it disrupts regional balances (particularly in favour of Damascus), it is important not to underestimate other theories of operation where tensions remain high. This is particularly the case for the opposition of Saudi Arabia and Iran through its regional proxies in Yemen. This is evidenced by the new incident of an Iranian tanker in the Red Sea, which was reportedly targeted by two missiles.

On the fundamentals side, operators no longer know where to start. The latter demonstrate the difference between the decline in macroeconomic indicators and the more or less significant advances on the Sino-American trade agreement and Brexit. Indeed, the decline in manufacturing and service ISMs, followed this week by the surprise contraction in US consumption, tends to paint a bleak picture of the direction of oil demand. In contrast, the agreement in principle reached between Pékin and Washington and the possible Brexit pilogue raise a wave of hope for the global economic outlook. 

It is within this framework that the IEA (International Energy Agency) and the EIA (American Department of Energy), like OPEC, have once again revised their growth estimates for global crude oil demand for 2020. Also under investor scrutiny, U.S. production is not slowing despite the decline in new drilling and is setting a record of 12.6 million barrels per day Graphically, in units of weekly time, there are no improvements to report on the underlying trend, which remains downward as indicated by the direction of the various moving averages. The prices are once again testing a major support located at 58 USD, which buyers will have to keep. Its rupture would effectively lead to a further decline towards 53 USD. 

Jordan Dufee
© 2021
Copier lien
All news about LONDON BRENT OIL
2m ago
11m ago
12m ago
29m ago
30m ago