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Gold: ... and in the end, gold wins

01/03/2020 | 10:21am

-We are re-publishing an earlier analysis on Gold, which is still very relevant today- Gold prices continue to rise to new highs not seen since April 2013 and are now at the level of USD 1500 per ounce. As such, the course achieved since the beginning of the year is remarkable, with gold appreciating by more than 15% since January 1 and by nearly 22% year-on-year.

This performance is obviously attributable to the fall in bond yields, fueled by the easing of the Fed's monetary policy, which forced it to lower its key rates by a quarter of a point, the first since 2008. It is not without recalling that the world's main central banks are engaged in the same monetary support process, such as the ECB, which is working to anchor market expectations towards new accommodating measures, or the BoJ, which is not ready to put an end to its ultra-accommodating policy. As a result, "risk-free" yields are sinking into negative territory, making the barbaric relic mechanically more attractive, since the latter by definition does not deliver any yield, any coupon, and has the additional advantage of not being backed by any State's debt.

The insistent theme of the trade war also contributed to the improvement of gold metal prices. This is intensifying and tends to take on a new face towards a currency war, thus increasing friction between Washington and Beijing. In this context, operators aspire to greater security and remain inclined to cover their long-term exposure with safe haven values. Gold demand reached a three-year high in the first half of 2019, driven by demand from central banks and financial investors according to World Gold Council data. Over the first six months of the year, total demand for gold (professional investors, individuals and central banks) rose by 8% compared to the first half of 2018 to reach 2,181.7 tonnes, the first since 2016.
Explosion of assets within global ETFs linked to gold and similar products - source: World Gold Council

Finally, after the easing of monetary policies and the return of risk aversion, the last growth lever in the gold market is linked to the growing appetite of central banks, particularly those in emerging countries pursuing a policy of diversifying their foreign exchange reserves. Central banks bought 224.4 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2019. This brings purchases in the first half of the year to 374.1 tonnes, the largest net increase in gold reserves in half-yearly figures over 19 years.

In daily data, gold has extracted well from its congestion zone to regain height. Prices are thus progressing in line with the trend, which remains firmly upward, as is the case with various daily moving averages going up. Buyers thus retain control in the short term as long as the old resistance, which now serves as a support, is maintained. The next major obstacle is in the USD 1530-50 zone, a key level in weekly data from the start of the decade.
Jordan Dufee
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