Watch bond yields carefully

01/13/2021 | 07:59am

Today, lawmakers will vote on impeaching President Trump during his final week in office, while US bond yields keep rising.

Markets switch between gains and losses, which often happens when investors are waiting for the end of an episode of uncertainty. In this case, the fate of Donald Trump. The current President of the United States has only a week left on its term, but the road to January 20 is fraught with obstacles. The financial community is not particularly worried about the turn taken by political events - it showed this last week - but it is waiting for the end of the crisis to focus on the economy again.

Contrary to the previous impeachment procedure against Trump, several Republican lawmakers have rallied in support of it. If it succeeds, this will prevent Donald from seeking another term in 2024. The Republican leader in the Senate himself, Mitch McConnell, is privately backing the move, according to the New York Times.

Meanwhile, the deviation of the US 10- and 2-year yield curve is weighing on investors’ mind, and has rekindled the inflation alert signal. A theme that financial professionals expect to see resurfacing this year or next, as a return of inflation could threaten the current central banks' strategy of flooding the markets with liquidity. At this stage, the threat is far enough away so as not to scare investors too much.

The Fed has and will continue to pursue an accommodating policy. The central bank is also very vigilant on the level of bond yields, especially on any sharp rise that would contribute to a deterioration of the financial situation. Yes, but some market operators are beginning to speculate that Democrats' control of both houses will lead to a return of inflation, since they have largely come out in favor of major stimulus programs.

Today on the agenda, we have November European industrial production and December's U.S. inflation as well as weekly U.S. oil inventories.

Romain Fournier
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