In the race for "official" cryptocurrency, the European Central Bank is one step behind the People's Bank of China, which is already testing its digital yuan, which could be officialized in a year's time. The bet against the dollar is not as widespread as expected, which should not prevent the Turkish lira from recovering against the greenback, according to experts at Société Générale.
Two-speed digital coin projects
The digital euro could see the light of day in five years, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said this week. An ECB survey shows that the main asset for potential users would be privacy, far ahead of security (17%) or the pan-European nature of the currency (10%). The study has elicited a record number of responses for this type of questionnaire, the ECB is pleased to say, even if the number of respondents put forward, 8,221 "citizens, businesses and professional associations", seems ridiculously low at the Community level. The Governing Council of the ECB is due to decide in a few weeks whether the work is launched. The central bank thinks it is relevant for Europe to equip itself with this type of tool, to counter the emergence of private initiatives such as Facebook's Libra or the cryptomoney of its counterparts, like the PBOC's digital yuan, currently being tested for a launch that could take place in a year... and not in five!
Everybody is playing the falling dollar, really?
We're still talking about the inevitable dollar this week, which has reversed the trend against the euro, taking advantage of the tightening of containment measures on the old continent and the ongoing political troubles in Italy. The greenback rose from 1.23 to 1.215 against the single currency. But are the bets still as unfavorable to the dollar? Not really, according to the latest investor survey released yesterday by Morgan Stanley. "Dollar weakness is a very consensual macroeconomic view at the moment, but we've seen only limited evidence of that in our survey," said the U.S. bank, which notes that 43% of investors expect the EUR/USD to finish the year largely unchanged at between 1.20 and 1.25. Only a third of the professionals surveyed expect to break through the 1.25 mark at the end of the year. But a quarter also sees a EUR/USD at less than 1.20, so...
Where will the dollar be at the end of the year, asks Morgan Stanley to his investor-clients?
When Turkey will wake up
In the latest version of its rates and currency trading ideas, Société Générale recommends that clients short the USD/TRY pair. "Under the leadership of the CBRT's new governor, Naci Ağbal, and the new finance minister, Lütfi Elvan, Turkey seems to be returning to more orthodox policies," the bank said, which believes the Turkish lira will recover. However, three indicators need to be monitored. First, the evolution of the "dollarization", to verify that the Turks regain confidence in their currency. Then the ability of the monetary authorities to follow the commitments that have been made recently. Finally, the absence of international sanctions from Europe or the United States. The USD/TRY currently stands at 7.39545. SG is also bearish on the EUR/TRY.
Cross table of the main currency pairs