Ceska Narodni Banka : M. Mora – Economic outlook for the Czech Republic

11/25/2020 | 11:31am

Economic outlook for the Czech Republic

Marek Mora

Deputy Governor

Czech National Bank

Virtual Client Meeting

Deutsche Bank Prague, 25 November 2020

Annual GDP growth structure

(annual percentage changes; contributions in percentage points; seasonally adjusted)

  • The Czech economy was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic and related containment measures
  • GDP annual growth will be negative till 1Q 2021
  • Only government consumption will make a positive contribution to GDP growth in 2020
  • The other components will resume positive contributions next year

2

Selected indicators in levels

(CZK billions; constant prices; seasonally adjusted)

GDP

Household consumption

1350

650

1300

630

610

1250

590

1200

570

1150

550

I/16

I/17

I/18

I/19

I/20

I/21

I/22

I/16

I/17

I/18

I/19

I/20

I/21

I/22

Gross capital formation

Exports of goods and services

380

1200

360

1100

340

1000

320

900

300

800

280

700

I/16

I/17

I/18

I/19

I/20

I/21

I/22

I/16

I/17

I/18

I/19

I/20

I/21

I/22

  • Despite a recovery in household consumption and exports, the economy will not converge to its pre-crisis level until the end of 2022
  • The second wave will primarily affect domestic demand - most of all private investment activity
  • All depends on the course of the pandemic!

3

Impact of pandemic into gross value added

(changes in level in %; impacts in pp; Feb. 2020=100)

  • Anti-epidemicmeasures of the 2nd wave will hit trade and services the hardest, while manufacturing will be hit less than in spring 2020
  • The adverse effects of the 2nd wave will have dissipated by mid-2021 and the sectors affected will return to the August 2020 level

4

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Ceska Narodni Banka published this content on 25 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 25 November 2020 16:30:07 UTC

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