* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=IDCBRR%3DECI poll data

* 23 of 25 analysts forecast BI keeping key rate at 3.75%

* 2 predict 25 bps cut to 3.50%

* Analysts nearly evenly split on 2021 prediction

* Decision due Thursday, around 0700 GMT on Jan. 21

JAKARTA, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank will likely keep interest rates steady on Thursday but could cut them as early as the first quarter of 2021 as the country continues to grapple with the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

All but two of 25 analysts in a Reuters poll expected Bank Indonesia (BI) to keep the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 3.75%, with two others predicting a 25 basis point rate reduction this week.

Southeast Asia's largest economy suffered its first recession in 22 years in 2020 as the pandemic hit consumption and business activity. Indonesia has been among the worst hit by the pandemic in the region, with daily infections rising to record levels over the weekend.

"We expect the BI rate to maintain (the) status quo, with the commentary (expected) to be cautious as the grip of rising COVID-19 cases continues to be a hurdle for normalisation," said Radhika Rao, an economist with DBS.

BI slashed its benchmark rate by a total of 125 bps last year to help lift the economy out of the doldrums, while it also pumped some $50 billion of liquidity into the financial system and loosened credit rules. The benchmark rate has been at 3.75% since November, when the central bank last cut rates.

Analysts in the poll were nearly evenly split on whether monetary easing is in store for 2021.

Eight of 15 analysts who gave year-end views forecast a rate cut in the first quarter of this year, but seven others expected the central bank to stand pat for the whole of 2021.

The central bank will also have to balance the need to support the economy with concerns about keeping Indonesian assets attractive for foreign investors, after a rise in U.S. Treasury yields earlier this month pressured the rupiah, analysts said.

"With BI's FX stability objective – which remains a priority, in our view – the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields will likely inhibit BI from cutting the policy rate at this stage," said Nomura analysts in a research note. ($1 = 14,070.0000 rupiah) (Polling by Nilufar Rizki, Fransiska Nangoy and Tabita Diela in Jakarta and Shaloo Shrivastava in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Maikel Jefriando; Writing by Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)