With 25.7 per cent of the vote in the German parliamentary elections, ahead of the CDU-CSU by less than two points, the victory of SPD leader Olaf Scholz promises long negotiations. In order to form a governing coalition, the Social Democrat candidate must find 162 additional seats in Parliament to reach the 368 seats needed for a majority. For the moment, the SPD has only 206 seats, so a coalition is the only possible outcome.
 
A new "GroKo" - the nickname for the alliance of the two major parties: the SPD and the CDU/CSU - will not be possible for this term. Armin Laschet's Christian Democrats (CDU) received only 24.1% of the vote.
 
What about a Red-Black-Green alliance (SPD-Die Linke-Green)? This one seemed the most likely, from the point of view of the proximity of the programs. Each of these parties is committed to social justice, promotes an increase in the minimum wage, and wants to address the climate crisis. However, this coalition is mathematically impossible because the 14.8 per cent of Annalena Baerbock's Greens and the 4.9 per cent of the radical left (Die Linke) are not enough to achieve a majority.

The last possibility is the "Tricolour Fire" coalition. This would bring together the SPD, the Greens and the FPD liberals. With a majority of around 53%. Moreover, according to the polls, it would be the preferred coalition of German voters.
 
As for Angela Merkel's CDU party, which, by the way, has achieved its worst score ever, no coalition is really possible, particularly because of the differences on carbon neutrality and the exit from coal. The CDU is therefore virtually out of the running.
 
With such close scores, negotiations are likely to be long for Olaf Scholz. A three-way coalition is required for the SPD leader to become chancellor before the end of the year. In this electoral mishmash with an undecided outcome, will Angela Merkel be able to leave the government before the holidays and enjoy her retirement?