Markets also got a little boost from Fed official Mary Daly’s speech yesterday, when she warned about the dangers of going too far on monetary policy tightening.

Overall, there’s still a lot of turmoil on financial markets. The rebound that began in mid-October seems to be running out of fuel. This has been illustrated over the past few sessions with indexes skidding again, waiting for something that could spark enthusiasm again. Will we still get the stock rally that is traditionally seen in December on stock markets? It seems unlikely...

The rumor about an increase in OPEC production and its sudden denial had a big effect on oil prices. "This was a classic maneuver by OPEC and its leader, Saudi Arabia, to test the market's reaction once again," insists AlphaValue analyst Elif Binici, who points out that all leaks about OPEC come from OPEC itself. The small trick of the day before allows the cartel to increase the weight of its word ahead of its December meeting. This official trickery, known to all but with immediate effect on the market, still leaves me stunned.

Earnings releases are getting scarce. Yesterday, Dell Technologies reported fairly strong results, but this wasn’t enough to convince investors and the stock fell in after-hours trading. Zoom Video lowered its revenue guidance for the year.

There was also Walt Disney and its curious idea to bring back a former boss. On this issue, the wheel turns quickly. I'll remind you that not so long ago, there was lots of chatter about Netflix getting their asses kicked by Disney+. Now, we realize that the race for size isn't so easy, even when you have the experience of Disney in entertainment. I'm not sure what to make of it yet, but it's certainly a good lesson.

On the macro side, today we got the OECD's updated macroeconomic forecast. It predicts that global growth will slow down significantly in 2023, but a rebound is expected in 2024. The growth of the world economy will fall from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.2% next year, before rebounding to 2.7% in 2024.

Amid the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine, “growth has lost momentum, high inflation is proving persistent, confidence has weakened, and uncertainty is high”, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said. "The world economy is experiencing its most severe energy crisis since the 1970s," according to the OECD's acting chief economist, Alvaro Santos Pereira.

Price increases are expected to average 8 percent this year in the G20 countries, before falling back to 5.5 percent in 2023 and 2024. The OECD's most likely scenario is not a global recession, but a marked slowdown in 2023 with lingering high inflation, although declining in many countries.

In the cryptocurrency world, things are going from bad to worse. Lending platform Genesis is reportedly on the verge of bankruptcy, Bloomberg reported, though its executives said in response that they have no immediate plans to file for bankruptcy* (*provided they raise $1 billion). We know that the weight of words is relative in the industry today, considering the speed at which things are going. As for the FTX case, well, we can say that every day offers new revelations on the lifestyle and habits of the microcosm created by Sam Bankman-Fried, the former darling of crypto.

 

Economic highlights of the day:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing index is today’s main indicator. Some Fifth District manufacturing firms reported softening conditions in November, the Richmond Fed said. The composite manufacturing index remained negative but edged up from −10 in October to −9 in November. All the macro agenda is here. 

The dollar is worth EUR 0.9746 and GBP 0.8424. The ounce of gold stabilized at 1744 dollars. Oil rebounded slightly, with North Sea Brent crude at USD 88.24 per barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 80.71. The yield on 10-year U.S. debt rallied slightly to 3.82%. Bitcoin has fallen below USD 16,000.

 

In corporate news:

* Best Buy advanced 7% in premarket trading after cutting its forecast for a decline in sales to 10% from about 11% for the full year, as the group relied on rebates to mitigate inflation-related demand slowdown.

* Dell reported a 68% increase in quarterly operating profit as strong demand for servers and networking equipment offset weak computer sales. However, the stock was down 2.1% in pre-market trading.

* The U.K. Competition Authority announced Tuesday that it is opening a full investigation into Apple and Google's dominance of the mobile operating system market.

* Zoom lowered its annual revenue forecast, sending the video conferencing platform's stock down 9.2% in after-hours trading.

* American Eagle Outfitters jumped 8.46% after better-than-expected third-quarter revenue.

* Analog Devices was up 3% in premarket trading on the back of a first quarter revenue increase after a strong fiscal fourth quarter.

* Gamestop Investor Carl Icahn holds a large short position in video-game distributor GameStop, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing sources.

* Baidu reported better-than-expected revenue from advertising and growth in its cloud and artificial intelligence businesses.

* JD.Com announced that it will cut the salaries of more than 2,000 senior executives by 10% to 20% next year to help improve benefits for the rest of the staff as part of the Chinese government's "common prosperity" campaign.

 

Analyst recommendations:

  • Activision Blizzard: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral. PT up 27% to $95.
  • Amphenol: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy. PT up 11% to $88.
  • Belden: Jefferies reinstated coverage with a recommendation of hold. PT up 7.1% to $86.
  • BP Plc: Citigroup upgrades from neutral to buy targeting GBp 540.
  • Chart Industries: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy. PT up 16% to $150.
  • Cognex: Cowen downgrades to market perform from outperform. PT up 3.5% to $50.
  • ConvaTec: Jefferies starts tracking as Buy, targeting GBp 300.
  • Haleon: Jefferies maintains a Hold rating with a price target reduced from GBp 280 to GBp 270.
  • HubSpot: Credit Suisse initiated coverage with a recommendation of outperform. PT set to $400.
  • Intuit: Credit Suisse reinstated coverage with a recommendation of outperform. PT set to $500.
  • Methode Electronics: Jefferies initiated coverage with a recommendation of buy. PT set to $52.
  • National Instruments: Jefferies initiated coverage with a recommendation of buy. PT set to $50.
  • Playtech: Jefferies remains Buy with a price target raised from GBp 550 to GBp 630.
  • Procter & Gamble: Wolfe Research initiated coverage with a recommendation of outperform. PT set to $156.
  • Toll Brothers: J.P. Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral. PT up 29% to $58.
  • Vodafone: Credit Suisse downgrades from Outperform to Underperform with a GBp 90 target.