THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Trump/Xi summit delayed, New vote for Brexit, EU includes US territory in Tax havens list…

Envoyer par e-mail
03/14/2019 | 03:10 pm
There will be no Trump/Xi Summit until April, while China wants to revive its country's economic activity. The 27 Member States have revised their black lists of tax havens. After the rejection of a No-Deal Brexit by Mps, Theresa May will try a poker move. Rising industrial production in Europe, downward revision of growth in Switzerland, recovery in orders for durable goods in the US... economic figures are mixed.

Trump says he is "in no hurry" to conclude an agreement with China, as long as it is a "good agreement". Meanwhile, a Bloomberg news flash informs us that the planned meeting between Trump and Xi will not take place until April. The Chinese government is encouraging banks to provide more loans to small businesses in order to boost declining growth.

Third time lucky? On Tuesday, British MEPs said no to May's agreement. Yesterday, they said no to an exit without agreement (312 votes against and 308 in favor). Tonight, they will vote on a postponement of Brexit. According to announcements by the British government, Theresa May wants to propose today a motion to hold a new vote on the divorce agreement by March 20 and postpone Brexit to June 30 to refine the agreement. If everything works as planned, the United Kingdom will not participate in the European elections in May.  But so far, nothing has worked as expected and British parliamentarians are still largely opposed to the text....

Tax havens: the EU blacklist increased from 5 countries to 15. EU Member States have adopted a new black list of tax havens, adding 10 new countries to the list, such as the United Arab Emirates and one American territory: the US Virgin Islands. The grey list (watch list) has also been revised.

Source: - Click to enlarge

Economic statistics: from Europe to the United States, via Asia. Industrial production in the euro zone rebounded in January (+1.4%), after a decline of 0.9% in the previous month. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is lowering its growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1%, from 1.5% in December. The UK Finance Minister, Philip Hammond, expects GDP growth to be limited to 1.2% in 2019 given the uncertainties surrounding Brexit.  In the United States, producer prices rose by 0.1% in February (against an expected 0.2%), after a decline of 0.1%. Durable goods orders amounted to 0.4% (-0.5% expected). Crude oil inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels, compared to an increase of 7.1 million the previous week and 2.7 million expected. Construction spending was above expectations, rising from -0.8% to +1.3% in January. In Japan, the one-year producer price index rose by 0.8% in February, compared with 0.6% in January. In China, the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% (4.9% previously) and industrial production rose by 5.3% (5.7% previously and 5.5% expected).

Romain Fournier
© 2019
Envoyer par e-mail