THE DAILY MACRO BRIEF: Statistics in the US and Europe, record interest rates in Australia...

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03/06/2019 | 02:14 pm
This is a rather slow macro news day today, with few progress on international trade or Brexit. Some economic statistics were released in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere in the world.

In the US. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Index was above analysts' expectations in February, at 59.7 (compared to 57.4), and up from 56.7 in January. ADP's non-agricultural job creations will be announced later today. The Fed will also publish its Beige Book (a report providing a portrait of the economy, published eight times a year by the institution and two weeks before the FOMC meeting).

In Europe. The Italian Institute of Statistics reported a 0.1% decline in GDP in the 4th quarter. Although it has risen compared to the previous estimate (-0.2%), it remains negative and does not allow Italy to emerge from the recession. The PMI service indices in Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and more generally in the euro zone exceeded analysts' forecasts and rose above the significant threshold of 50, reflecting an expansion in the non-manufacturing industry. In February, the consumer price index rose by 0.4% in Switzerland (in line with analysts' expectations), compared to a decline of 0.3% in the previous month. The ECB, which is meeting tomorrow, is expected to discuss its the interest rate level (which is expected to remain unchanged at 0.00% for the Refi), the TLTROs and its growth prospects.

In the rest of the world. The australian GDP disappointed in the 4th quarter of 2018, reaching 0.2% (consensus 0.5%), compared to 0.3% in the 3rd quarter. The Australian Central Bank (RBA) kept interest rates at a record low of 1.50% (unchanged since 2016).

In other news. A new President has been appointed at the head of the Central Bank of the Philippines, the Budget Secretary, Benjamin Diokno.
Romain Fournier 2019
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